ATL: LAURA - Models

[SoupBone]

Someone explain this one to me. If the HWRF brings TD14 to SELA (which is doing on this run), wouldn't Laura, who looks to be right behind TD14 follow into that weakness left in TD14's wake?

[shiny-pebble]

932

[Ken711]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/yRgYeTq.jpg

Not a pretty picture even brushing the west coast of Florida.

[supercane4867]

IR simulation looks like Katrina. HWRF @90hr

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Here's something interesting - 12z HWRF Parent for 14L shows a significant hurricane hitting LA. However, it only shows Laura as an open wave. I have yet to see a single model showing two hurricanes in the Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

The model runs and intensity literally are starting to remind me of Rita in 2005. Assuming the 18z run wasn’t a fluke!

Yes I agree. Just looked back at Rita track and it is quite similar.

Rita didn’t get going until just SE of the Turks & Caicos Islands and clipped Key West as a Cat.1 before bombing in the Central Gulf. Wouldn’t surprise me to see something similar though I’m not sold on seeing anything stronger than a Cat.3 just yet.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's something interesting - 12z HWRF Parent for 14L shows a significant hurricane hitting LA. However, it only shows Laura as an open wave. I have yet to see a single model showing two hurricanes in the Gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/wRyDSbQ.png

It’s nearly impossible to have two hurricanes in the Gulf as one would likely induce shear on the other and cause it to be weak and short-lived.

Wilma and Alpha in 2005 though not in the Gulf are something similar as Wilma’s outflow induced shear on TS Alpha and made it a short-lived weak system. Then again it crossed over the mountains of Haiti.

[northjaxpro]

Here's something interesting - 12z HWRF Parent for 14L shows a significant hurricane hitting LA. However, it only shows Laura as an open wave. I have yet to see a single model showing two hurricanes in the Gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/wRyDSbQ.png

If it played out like this particular run, it is showing Marco as a very potent TC shearing whatever is left of Laura in the Eastern GOM with its outflow.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF down to 932mb at hour 90, HMON gets to 936mb a little later as it approaches Sabine pass. Not liking these westward shifts, or the strength trends in general.

[Steve]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You have some low 960's and even a 959, so into the Cat 3 territory. Except GFS at that resolution usually doesn't show ballpark pressure right until closer in time. Anywhere near the coast west of Morgan City looks to take the brunt with the GFS. New Iberia, Lafayette, Lake Charles, possibly some of the Golden Triangle are areas most severely affected.

[Fancy1001]

HWRF down to 932mb at hour 90, HMON gets to 936mb a little later as it approaches Sabine pass. Not liking these westward shifts, or the strength trends in general.

I think it's going through an eyewall replacement cycle around 102

[Ivanhater]

Looks like Hwrf shifted east

[bella_may]

A big northeast shift from the HWRF

[LarryWx]

This HWRF run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip of the mainland, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Is this just an outlier?

[Ken711]

Here's something interesting - 12z HWRF Parent for 14L shows a significant hurricane hitting LA. However, it only shows Laura as an open wave. I have yet to see a single model showing two hurricanes in the Gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/wRyDSbQ.png

If it played out like this particular run, it is showing Marco as a very potent TC shearing whatever is left of Laura in the Eastern GOM with its outflow.

That would be a nice outcome.

[cajungal]

GFS went from barely a TS to a low end CAT 3/high end CAT 2. There is something seriously wrong with the models if this verifies. We're not even too far out at this point and its flip flopping like crazy.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

You have some low 960's and even a 959, so into the Cat 3 territory. Except GFS at that resolution usually doesn't show ballpark pressure right until closer in time. Anywhere near the coast west of Morgan City looks to take the brunt with the GFS. New Iberia, Lafayette, Lake Charles, possibly some of the Golden Triangle, Lafayette, Lake Charles and probably the Triangle are areas most severely affected.

I am in Thibodaux. So a bit nervous here

[AutoPenalti]

Wow HWRF 18z really should keep people in SFL still watching.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Here's my hunch on what has happened today with the models:

14L has failed to consolidate nearly as fast as anticipated by the global models, likely due to the trough siphoning energy away to the north, resulting in an inability to consolidate. It's not impossible, but I'm starting to seriously doubt that it'll become a hurricane.

This has significant implications for the future intensity of Laura, as a weaker 14L means Laura has greater breathing room in the Gulf. GFS and HWRF are showing an ideal upper level environment, resulting in significant strengthening once it moves away from Cuba.

We'll need to watch if the LLC relocates under the MLC in the deeper convection tonight. That seems to be what the HWRF is showing.

[Keldeo1997]

HMON has a 924mb Cat 5

[shiny-pebble]

Holding steady intensity wise. Looks like its headed for SELA. Scary scenario