ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro looks more organized through 18 hours compared to the 12z.

[Steve]

The model runs and intensity literally are starting to remind me of Rita in 2005. Assuming the 18z run wasn’t a fluke!

Yes I agree. Just looked back at Rita track and it is quite similar.

Looks to grow into a mid-sized storm, but size hopefully won't match up.

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF heading towards AL gulf coast looks like.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF nearly 1.3 degrees E of 12z @105 hrs heading for FL/AL line. Clearly any delays with Laura now, center reforms will lead to E shifts down the road. JMHO

[LarryWx]

This HWRF run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip of the mainland, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Is this just an outlier?

Also, keep in mind that the HWRF is often too far SW...maybe not in this case but I hope folks get the point of this. Don’t ignore this in S mainland FL!!

[Keldeo1997]

HMON wants 1900 Galveston but stronger

[sma10]

This HWRF run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip of the mainland, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Is this just an outlier?

Bearing in mind a 10 mile error is nothing at all for a 3 hour forecast ... let alone a 72 hour forecast.

And welcome back Larry!

[SoupBone]

I'm really trying to put some sense of perspective into this, but aren't both the HMON and HWRF known for many times overdoing intensity? I get the system could still have that potential.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This HWRF run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip of the mainland, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Is this just an outlier?

Also, keep in mind that the HWRF is often too far SW...maybe not in this case but I hope folks get the point of this. Don’t ignore this in S mainland FL!!

yep. i still feel comfortable down in jupiter, but broward and further south should 100% be watching still. when a model shows a storm passing 1-2 degrees south of your location 70 hours out, you have to pay attention.

[bella_may]

Looks like a direct hit on Mobile as a 935 MB storm

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro looks more organized through 18 hours compared to the 12z.

So far the same track as 12z but a more defined and stronger vort.

[Steve]

I'm really trying to put some sense of perspective into this, but aren't both the HMON and HWRF known for many times overdoing intensity? I get the system could still have that potential.

They can. I still don't want to ever see 922 in the Gulf. That was about the reading they saw in Panama City for Michael. Before him, I don't know the last Gulf storm to get below that. Wilma maybe?

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2020082118/hmon_mslp_wind_13L_43.png

HMON wants 1900 Galveston but stronger

Wow, clearly there is some very fine line between W to TX and FL panhandle with that kind of model spread.

[northjaxpro]

Here's something interesting - 12z HWRF Parent for 14L shows a significant hurricane hitting LA. However, it only shows Laura as an open wave. I have yet to see a single model showing two hurricanes in the Gulf.

https://i.imgur.com/wRyDSbQ.png

If it played out like this particular run, it is showing Marco as a very potent TC shearing whatever is left of Laura in the Eastern GOM with its outflow.

That would be a nice outcome.

For people in the Northeast GOM and Eastern Gulf interests , yes. It would be a nice outcome. However, definitely not for Louisiana and potentially upper TX coast , not with a 977 mb TC Marco besring down.on them on that run, if it played out like that.

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like a direct hit on Mobile as a 935 MB storm

Yeah, due south of Mobile bay at hour 117

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro looks more organized through 18 hours compared to the 12z.

So far the same track as 12z but a more defined and stronger vort.

Through hour 54 18z Euro is now further south but stronger.

[sma10]

This HWRF run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip of the mainland, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Is this just an outlier?

Also, keep in mind that the HWRF is often too far SW...maybe not in this case but I hope folks get the point of this. Don’t ignore this in S mainland FL!!

And boy, I hope the Keys don't find themselves in a pickle

[Nuno]

HWRF has handled Laura better than most others, but I'd still want to see what comes in the 00z run to see whether or not it's an outlier or perhaps a trend.

It's also just one model, let's see what the rest show.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro looks more organized through 18 hours compared to the 12z.

So far the same track as 12z but a more defined and stronger vort.

Through hour 54 18z Euro is now further south but stronger.

18z Euro is south of Cuba hour 60... Deepening 993mb.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm really trying to put some sense of perspective into this, but aren't both the HMON and HWRF known for many times overdoing intensity? I get the system could still have that potential.

They are, and I get the impression that’s what the HMON is doing. It gets it to cat 2 before Cuba, runs it up the spine and it still comes out into the gulf in the lower 980s before taking off to cat5. HWRF doesn’t seem as crazy since it’s not as aggressive up front, but I would still put it at the upper end of possible outcomes. It doesn’t help that the gfs is latching onto the idea of a major though, and even the euro is starting to show a stronger system