ATL: LAURA - Models

[sma10]

I'm really trying to put some sense of perspective into this, but aren't both the HMON and HWRF known for many times overdoing intensity? I get the system could still have that potential.

Yes, they do. But the value here is that we are seeing one or two potential outcomes should Laura get her act together. Are these the two likeliest scenarios, no. But the chance is real.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm really trying to put some sense of perspective into this, but aren't both the HMON and HWRF known for many times overdoing intensity? I get the system could still have that potential.

They do but they’ve also nailed some of the big ones like Dorian Irma and Michael. HWRF was the only one forecasting Michael and Dorian as majors at one point when other models had Dorian dying out. Not saying they’re great but some times they’re right and so far they’ve had the best handle on Laura... so far.

[Kingarabian]

So far the same track as 12z but a more defined and stronger vort.

Through hour 54 18z Euro is now further south but stronger.

18z Euro is south of Cuba hour 60... Deepening 993mb.

Through hour 72, 2nd landfall from the south over Cuba. 991mb. Moving NW.

[eastcoastFL]

[MGC]

Some scary HWRF eye candy...I blew off the HWRF when it had 130mb Michael going into PCB two years ago. Was it a case of the blind squirrel? Hope it don't verify......MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

Some scary HWRF eye candy...I blew off the HWRF when it had 130mb Michael going into PCB two years ago. Was it a case of the blind squirrel? Hope it don't verify......MGC

Can anyone show me a windspeed calculation on a 130mb hurricane?

[ColdMiser123]

Hurricane in the Gulf on the 18z Euro.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.



GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

[Hammy]

Hurricane in the Gulf on the 18z Euro.

How long does it take to consolidate the center, and how much land interaction is there? I'm assuming there's no unpaid public source to view these.

[stormlover2013]

Ike type path

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane in the Gulf on the 18z Euro.

How long does it take to consolidate the center, and how much land interaction is there? I'm assuming there's no unpaid public source to view these.

Same amount of time as the GFS. But it has more land interaction.

[catskillfire51]

the run ends at 90 hours there, the red dots are a rough estimate of track

[bella_may]

18z Euro stronger than the 18z GFS through hour 90. 985mb. Much more SW.

https://i.imgur.com/tFcuP6K.gif

GFS graphics are free @ http://www.Weathermodels.com. Subscribe for 6z/18z Euro access.

HWRF seems more realistic (track wise) given Laura’s current state

[SootyTern]

This HWRF run’s track is an indicator that S mainland FL is far from being all clear. This was within only about 10 miles of the S tip of the mainland, which is the closest HWRF run to there since 12Z yesterday (closest of the last 5 runs).
Is this just an outlier?

Also, keep in mind that the HWRF is often too far SW...maybe not in this case but I hope folks get the point of this. Don’t ignore this in S mainland FL!!

I find the HWRF's consistency in blowing Laura up into something significant on approach to the Keys in spite of continuing to look like crap for the next 24 hours to be somewhat bothersome

[NDG]

Greetings from Anna Maria Island, last post I saw was from wxman57 betting against the HWRF, that chances of the HWRF verifying are as low as him getting the weekend off, I see a weekend off for him very likely with latest GFS and Euro trending towards the HWRF solution.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

[eastcoastFL]

Some scary HWRF eye candy...I blew off the HWRF when it had 130mb Michael going into PCB two years ago. Was it a case of the blind squirrel? Hope it don't verify......MGC

HMON is worse but that one actually scrapes Cuba before hitting the gulf angry and dropping to 922mb at the end of the run and it hasn’t made landfall yet

[Hammy]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

Was there upper air data that's been fed into them or is that the 00z?

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

Why do you think they’re so much stronger now? Is it just that the gulf is rocket fuel right now? Or something else all together?

[South Texas Storms]

I'm not liking the much stronger trends in the 18z global model runs. Curious to see what the 18z Euro Ensemble run shows here in about 30 mins. I'm thinking it will also trend much stronger and farther west with many of its members.

Was there upper air data that's been fed into them or is that the 00z?

I'm not sure. Wouldn't be surprised if some managed to get into the 18z run, but most should be in the 0z guidance.