ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Watch for center reformation further S and E

https://i.ibb.co/F0nxg4y/image.png

Yup.

Got really warm, really quick.
I can probably scratch the pinhole idea now.

[Buck]

Watch for center reformation further S and E

Looks like it's becoming better established where it is . Hopefully they initialize this correctly on the 12Z.

Yeah it's stacked now and the eyewall is establishing itself, only open to the NW per recon. Would be very surprising for it to reform.

[Steve]

Watch for center reformation further S and E

Looks like it's becoming better established where it is . Hopefully they initialize this correctly on the 12Z.

12z runs start a 7am (CDT) so probably not.

[tropicwatch]

Looking like we will get back to back center passes. First NOAA then AF. NOAA finding above 70mph surface.

[SoupBone]

LLC and MLC are perfectly stacked per Recon.... no more reformations going on.

assuming shear has indeed dropped off.. then given the current structure


this could be quite likely starting an RI phase.

https://i.ibb.co/YTnWRvG/Capture.png

Looking at this, it would need to move nearly due west to hit the tip of Plaquemines Parish, unless this image is deceiving or tilted.

[SouthDadeFish]

NOAA P3 SFMR is reporting at least 70 kt surface winds. Flight-level winds were still rising on the inbound leg in the northern eyewall. Sally is approaching hurricane intensity.

[cfisher]

Watch for center reformation further S and E

Looks like it's becoming better established where it is . Hopefully they initialize this correctly on the 12Z.

Yeah it's stacked now and the eyewall is establishing itself, only open to the NW per recon. Would be very surprising for it to reform.

Maybe not "reform" , but open up a huge eye.

[Jonny]

Based on the last few graphics, it looks like a FL panhandle hit isn't out of the question (?).

[GCANE]

[ConvergenceZone]

Maybe it's just my eyes, but it looks to me like Sally may be getting caught-up in the deep steering flow and is starting to race off to the north. If that's the case, it's gonna make landfall a lot sooner than tomorrow night (and further east too).

And both further east and quicker landfall probably equates to a weaker storm, much less time over water. 80 mph is a good bet

[TheStormExpert]

Wrapping up nicely!

[cfisher]

80mm/hr rain rate.. uhhhh

[DestinHurricane]

Wrapping up nicely!

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TastyPlumpGentoopenguin-size_restricted.gif

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IllinformedJovialGibbon-size_restricted.gif

You can see on radar it is WAY NE of track.

[FLpanhandle91]

153500 2859N 08653W 6968 03109 9999 +090 //// 074062 064 070 080 01

Hurricane.

[aspen]

Don’t tell me this is already a hurricane...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Recon through 10:36am CDT:

10am CDT NHC track. Vortex messages from previous missions also plotted. Satellite from 10:30am CDT from SSEC RealEarth.

[Aric Dunn]

NOAA P3 SFMR is reporting at least 70 kt surface winds. Flight-level winds were still rising on the inbound leg in the northern eyewall. Sally is approaching hurricane intensity.

So far

153500 2859N 08653W 6968 03109 9999 +090 //// 074062 064 070 080 01

[ThetaE]

Important to note: NOAA plane is flying at 700mb vs. the AF plane at 850 mb. So flight level winds shouldn't be compared directly between the two, and if I'm not mistaken, I believe the NOAA plane's SFMR will be biased a bit higher? At the very least, that 70kt measurement, while not flagged, was in 80 mm/hr (!) rain rates. But the NOAA plane is definitely flying through the most intense part of Sally at the moment, and finding some just-under-hurricane strength winds so far. Hoping we'll get a dropsonde in this quadrant.

[hurricaneCW]

Ugly stuff unfolding. Very large storm will extremely cold cloud tops moving very slowly towards the coast.

Someone might get 30-40" out of this.

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 984.2 mb (29.07 inHg) from Piggy so maybe around 988