BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Hmm

01B AMPHAN 200517 1800 12.6N 86.6E IO 110 942

Not bad. I wouldn’t say Amphan is quite worthy of 120-130 kt yet, so 110 kt is pretty reasonable. Once that eye clears up, then it’s an easy T#6.5-7.0

[1900hurricane]

IO, 01, 2020051718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 866E, 115, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 150, 140, 155, 165, 1002, 225, 5, 0, 10, B, 0, , 0, 0, AMPHAN, D,
IO, 01, 2020051718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 866E, 115, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 40, 45, 55, 30, 1002, 225, 5, 0, 10, B, 0, , 0, 0, AMPHAN, D,
IO, 01, 2020051718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 866E, 115, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 30, 35, 35, 25, 1002, 225, 5, 0, 10, B, 0, , 0, 0, AMPHAN, D,

[Abdullah]

The Navy and NOAA have this best track:

01B AMPHAN 200517 1800 12.6N 86.6E IO 115 938

We have a Category Four Hurricane here.

[Yellow Evan]

The eye isn't warming as fast as I would like (ADT suggests it's steady) but it does appear to be becoming more circular. Once the eye warms to around -20C or higher, this will likely justify a Category 5 intensity.

[aspen]

The eye isn't warming as fast as I would like (ADT suggests it's steady) but it does appear to be becoming more circular. Once the eye warms to around -20C or higher, this will likely justify a Category 5 intensity.

I’ve noticed that too. I’m thinking maybe some outflow is restricted and slowing down the clearing of the eye.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Y i k e s

[aspen]

That CDO of solid CDG is absurd. If eye temps ever become positive, it’s an easy 150+ kt system.

[Hayabusa]

Just imagine the raws if the eye is in the + instead while having that very CDG

2020MAY17 201500 4.7 966.7 82.2 4.7 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -59.40 -86.67 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.80 -86.60 ARCHER MSG1 53.4

[shah83]

This needs RECON.

[Highteeld]

MPI well under 900 mb for most of the track into the coast.

[aspen]

MPI well under 900 mb for most of the track into the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/tIuV8ie.png

Are those regions of <875 mbar MPIs?

[aspen]

MG pixels in the eye. Look at the size of that cold dark grey CDO

[Kingarabian]

That's some of the best CDG I've seen in a while...

This is probably going to blow past 99 Odisha, 07 Gonu, and 19 Kyarr.

[Kingarabian]

Just imagine the raws if the eye is in the + instead while having that very CDG

2020MAY17 201500 4.7 966.7 82.2 4.7 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -59.40 -86.67 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.80 -86.60 ARCHER MSG1 53.4

If the eye becomes positive then what analogs are there? Haiyan or Patricia?

[aspen]

I think I see why the eye hasn’t been clearing: there’s an anticyclone to the east of Amphan that’s helping with outflow on one side, but suppressing outflow on the other. This can be seen in the latest wind shear map: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Abdullah]

The IMD is being really dense right now making these conservative estimates. The thing has a pretty solid and absurdly round eye that they've called "ragged". They didn't even up the Dvorak estimates from 4.5 when the raw Dvorak estimates have been above 6 for hours and the adjusted estimates have reached 5.

I'd say the storm is breaking records already, if it isn't going to be in six hours.

[Hayabusa]

Just imagine the raws if the eye is in the + instead while having that very CDG

2020MAY17 201500 4.7 966.7 82.2 4.7 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -59.40 -86.67 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.80 -86.60 ARCHER MSG1 53.4

If the eye becomes positive then what analogs are there? Haiyan or Patricia?

It could be, Halong's coldest mean cloud at eye pattern was like -82C well below VCDG and Halong didn't have a completely filled CDG and it peaked at 7.9 raw.

[Highteeld]

MPI well under 900 mb for most of the track into the coast.

https://i.imgur.com/tIuV8ie.png

Are those regions of <875 mbar MPIs?

Yep. As low as 843 mb actually

[Kingarabian]

No doubt this strong WWB event near the equator has spread North and played a large role in Amphan's development.

[Yellow Evan]

12z SHIPS FWIW suggests this may be peaking sooner than I thought yesterday.

IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 0, 120N, 864E, 75, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 12, 131N, 865E, 85, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 24, 143N, 866E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 36, 158N, 870E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 48, 176N, 875E, 74, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 60, 199N, 882E, 58, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 72, 221N, 889E, 48, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 84, 236N, 892E, 28, 0, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,