EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Highteeld]

This is likely much stronger than 85 knots right now.

[Highteeld]

Per Dvorak Analysis, eye shade is now WMG, as the eye temp has exceeded 9.0 *C.
Another sign of incredible intensification this storm has undergone today

[StruThiO]

Appears to be a cat 4, to me

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2020 Time : 032031 UTC
Lat : 12:33:00 N Lon : 132:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.6mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +17.1C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

This is nearing Category 4 intensity. Very impressed with the eye temperature and I imagine the CDO will thicken overnight. Pending timing of ERC's (which are fairly rare in this basin), Douglas probably has 120-130 knots in him.

[CrazyC83]

Definitely T5.5. If the black closes it's T6.0, and white closes it's T6.5-7.0?

I'd set it at 105 kt right now.

[Kingarabian]

SAB 5.5/5.5

ADT 5.6/5.8/5.9

[Chris90]

Cristina and the flops this basin has had so far this year have left me very reluctant to pull the trigger. I wish I had gone ahead and saved my 125kt prediction for Douglas instead of using it on Cristina and busting. I wouldn't be surprised if Doug had already achieved Cat 4 intensity. He's the best looking cyclone worldwide since Harold in the SPac back in March/April?

Also, slightly off topic, but is anyone else suffering from a slight case of tracking fatigue? It was fairly boring for awhile and now BOOM: Doug, Gonzalo, 8L. I'm falling behind on everything.

[Kingarabian]

Now a Major hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas has rapidly intensified since earlier today, with satellite
images showing a ragged, but nearly clear eye surrounded by cold
cloud tops of -70 C. There appears to be a little dry air intrusion
across the northern portion of the circulation, which is limiting
the amount of deep convection wrapping around that part of the eye.
Both Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
5.5/100 kt, while the ADT and SATCON estimate averages have
increased to 105 kt. Since the cyclone's appearance has improved
slightly since these estimates arrived, the advisory initial
intensity has been set at 105 kt, making Douglas a major hurricane.

The environmental conditions supporting the rapid intensification
appear at their best at this time as the cyclone is over SSTs of
over 28 C, with low wind shear in a moist air mass. If the cyclone
can fight off the dry air in the northern semicircle, some
additional strengthening is possible, especially early Thursday.
However, Douglas should be gradually moving into a less hospitable
environment for strengthening over the next few days, and in 36 h
the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and into a
region where the 500-700 mb relative humidity is less than 60
percent. Later on in the forecast period, wind shear is also
expected to be on the increase. These factors should cause the
cyclone to gradually weaken beginning Thursday night. Douglas is
expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor
forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The NHC forecast
was adjusted higher in the first 12 h based on the initial
intensity, and is very close to the previous forecast after that
time. This intensity forecast closely follows the various consensus
aids.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 295/15. Douglas should
continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next few
days, steered by a large mid-level ridge extending across much of
the central and eastern North Pacific. The cyclone is then forecast
to turn more toward the west late in the forecast period as it
moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance is tightly
clustered and the new NHC is little changed from the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 134.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Kingarabian]

Douglas seems to have worked out most of the dry air affecting its northern quads. Eye is much more symmetrical and warmer, with cloud tops cooling:

[HurricaneEnzo]

Obviously the 'eye test' is far from conclusive but if you showed me an ir image of this storm currently I would guess 105-110 kts. Eye was a little ragged but seems to be working that out now. Very close to Cat 4 IMO. Beautiful storm.

[NDG]

This is why the usage of TCHP is over rated when a cyclone is moving. Shallow warm waters with the right atmospheric conditions are more than enough when the storm is moving along to become and maintain a MH.

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0.

[NDG]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a hurricane coming in from the ESE? Will it be history in the making?
Strange that the usual TUTT is not going to be there to protect them.

[HurricaneEnzo]

When was the last time Hawaii was hit by a hurricane coming in from the ESE? Will it be history in the making?
Strange that the usual TUTT is not going to be there to protect them.

I don't think it ever has to be honest. Iselle in 2014 came REAL close but weakened to TS at the last minute. Dot in 59 was way more South than East. I have my doubts this storm but if it can pull it off but possible history in the making indeed.

[aspen]

B ring with a mix of W cloud tops, as well as a rapidly warming eye. This is easily 115-120 kt.

[HurricaneEnzo]

B ring with a mix of W cloud tops, as well as a rapidly warming eye. This is easily 115-120 kt.

Agreed, that ragged eye was holding it back earlier but now it is sorted so intensity has likely shot up some.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 231227
TCSENP

A. 08E (DOUGLAS)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 13.3N

D. 135.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...PEAK INTENSITY MAY HAVE OCCURRED AT 0530Z WHEN THE DT WAS
A 6.0. A WMG EYE WAS MEASURED, EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A RING TEMP OF LG,
CREATING AN EYE ADJ OF +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

Are we looking at the same storm?

[aspen]

Does anyone have a link to Douglas’ ADT page?