ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#181 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:19 am

Models more bullish than earlier today

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#182 Postby drezee » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:25 am

Verification scores! Better correlation with an upgrade from 80% than 60%...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#183 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:29 am

They upgraded the TWO instead of waiting for marine and aviation interests - it certainly has a classic CV appearance...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#184 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:32 am

Got some Beryl vibes with this, though not expecting anything quite as strong
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#185 Postby MGC » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:37 am

Yup, 99L likely to get upgraded later today. Looking pretty healthy on Sat loop. Some low level dry air lurking about....but don't see much shear out ahead of 99L for the next couple of days. Should slowly intensify and become a TS eventually IMO......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#186 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:39 am

Apparently they are just waiting on Dvorak numbers to catch up. Doesn’t make much sense to me if there’s ASCAT available already.

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1285597547655057408


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#187 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:42 am

Image

LLC = check
deep convection = check

This thing is a tropical cyclone!

Probably will be a respectable one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#188 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:45 am

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1285569042787569664



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285554980552876032



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285565130907033600



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285569499585032192



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1285570490577428480


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#189 Postby StPeteMike » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:46 am

One thing I’ll be watching is the wave just coming off of Africa. Definitely has some circulation, just mid-level right now, but it’s a larger system compared to 99L. If the wave manages to get itself together as well, it could suck up much of 99L moisture and make it more prone to any shear or dry air ahead of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#190 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:46 am

Here's your organized deep convection.
Continuous and just about on top of the CoC.
A new tower is beginning to fire and may wrap around.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#191 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:50 am

We will continue breaking 2005's earliest-storm records if this is named pretty quickly, but hey, at least it's finally a deep MDR storm like all the 2005 storms thus far. Though I'm pretty sure we could fit 2020's total ACE so far several times over into just Dennis or Emily
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#192 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:57 am

Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2241/lHnn8X.gif

LLC = check
deep convection = check

This thing is a tropical cyclone!

Probably will be a respectable one.

This is definitely in my opinion 100% at least a Tropical Depression. Don’t know what the NHC is waiting on?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#193 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:59 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2241/lHnn8X.gif

LLC = check
deep convection = check

This thing is a tropical cyclone!

Probably will be a respectable one.

This is definitely in my opinion 100% at least a Tropical Depression. Don’t know what the NHC is waiting on?

Persistence, persistence, persistence. This will probably go straight to TS Gonzalo by 21:00 UTC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#194 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:01 am

Shell Mound wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2241/lHnn8X.gif

LLC = check
deep convection = check

This thing is a tropical cyclone!

Probably will be a respectable one.

This is definitely in my opinion 100% at least a Tropical Depression. Don’t know what the NHC is waiting on?

Persistence, persistence, persistence. This will probably go straight to TS Gonzalo by 21:00 UTC.


24 hours of persistent convection = Check.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#195 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:05 am

Can someone tell me why this storm is expected to weaken by this weekend? What is the NHC seeing that will cause that?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#196 Postby chaser1 » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:05 am

Shell Mound wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2241/lHnn8X.gif

LLC = check
deep convection = check

This thing is a tropical cyclone!

Probably will be a respectable one.

This is definitely in my opinion 100% at least a Tropical Depression. Don’t know what the NHC is waiting on?

Persistence, persistence, persistence. This will probably go straight to TS Gonzalo by 21:00 UTC.


Persistance IS key, and should be key.... however NO more - NO less then should apply to hybrid "home-grown" North Atlantic lows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#197 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:10 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#198 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:11 am

Yeah persistence didn't mean much for some of our brief systems the last couple years, Olga existed for three advisories

I still think it's a little harder for a pure MDR system to be upgraded than even a brief baroclinic assisted system, lots of really brief high latitude storms recently
Last edited by EquusStorm on Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#199 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:13 am

EquusStorm wrote:Yeah persistence didn't mean much for some of our brief systems the last couple years, Olga existed for three advisories

They throw persistence out the window when there's recon and it's a land threat in the short term.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#200 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:16 am

That's fair, though it took forever to operationally upgrade similarly land-threatening Bill in 2015. But I disgress lol. I think every storm of 2019 deserved its classification, just a lot that decided to not last too long
Last edited by EquusStorm on Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:19 am, edited 2 times in total.
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