ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I still don’t see much happening until it moves further west of SA into the open water of the Western Caribbean. The building blocks are there; we’ll see if it can manage to develop into anything organized.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.
it is pretty ridiculous looking at morning visible and watching this thing rapidly organizing.. also coming into Curaco radar range.. so later when the llc is covered up we can watch development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
06Z GFS is trending this further north as it approaches the Yucatan and gets it more under the Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break.
IF you want to go by GFS, any track farther north or any delay / weakening in the Rossby Wave, then intensification in the GoM becomes very real.
IF you want to go by GFS, any track farther north or any delay / weakening in the Rossby Wave, then intensification in the GoM becomes very real.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:GCANE wrote:If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.
it is pretty ridiculous looking at morning visible and watching this thing rapidly organizing.. also coming into Curaco radar range.. so later when the llc is covered up we can watch development.
Awesome!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:GCANE wrote:If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.
it is pretty ridiculous looking at morning visible and watching this thing rapidly organizing.. also coming into Curaco radar range.. so later when the llc is covered up we can watch development.
Awesome!!
https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-radar-map-live.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
TUTT is moving straight south to grab that outflow channel.
I say by the time 97L gets south of Hispaniola, it'll kick in a new infeed from the EPAC and the TUTT will be nearly ideally located for max ventilation.
Could escalate quickly.
Any strong TS / Cat 1 coming into the GoM would very likely do major damage to the Rossby wave.
We all know what kind of hot water / high CAPE exists in the GoM.

I say by the time 97L gets south of Hispaniola, it'll kick in a new infeed from the EPAC and the TUTT will be nearly ideally located for max ventilation.
Could escalate quickly.
Any strong TS / Cat 1 coming into the GoM would very likely do major damage to the Rossby wave.
We all know what kind of hot water / high CAPE exists in the GoM.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Latest TWO (20/60):
1. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. Significant
development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of
days while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the
wave is forecast to move more slowly westward, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or this weekend when it reaches
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. Significant
development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of
days while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the
wave is forecast to move more slowly westward, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or this weekend when it reaches
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
first 10 visible images..
clear as day... Pun intended

clear as day... Pun intended


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
First visible showing very rapid cirrus / CDO build up as a result of the debris from the towers.
New tower overshooting the cirrus with very high rain rate.
Convection is not washing out.
New tower overshooting the cirrus with very high rain rate.
Convection is not washing out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Aug 18, 2020 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Looking pretty good this morning. 97L looks to be gradually trying to get itself together in the Eastern Caribbean this morning. I an still not ecpecting signifucant development until it gets into the NW Caribbean in a few days.
Dont worry, if not this upcoming ASCAT ... this evenings ASCAT will show a TD.. unless this convection completely collapses and shoots out an outflow destroying the developing llc. but no reason for that to happen.. lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Deeper convection and more symmetrical as indicated by radar


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Diurnal pressure should peak in about 2 hrs and then drop.
If convection keeps up till noon, a good chance for quick development this afternoon IMHO.
If convection keeps up till noon, a good chance for quick development this afternoon IMHO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..
What about Matthew 2016? It became a TS around the lower antilles. But you did say the word 'formed' so maybe because Matthew was already established as a TS it doesn't count?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
robbielyn wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..
What about Matthew 2016? It became a TS around the lower antilles. But you did say the word 'formed' so maybe because Matthew was already established as a TS it doesn't count?
Right. a system that actually formed in this area.. I cant think of one. There is that historical website that people use to check this sort of thing. but forgot what it was.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:robbielyn wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..
What about Matthew 2016? It became a TS around the lower antilles. But you did say the word 'formed' so maybe because Matthew was already established as a TS it doesn't count?
https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80
Just type in North Atlantic first. You can then use the location pin and set radius (on mobile so can't pull an image right now).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
97L INVEST 200818 1200 13.2N 65.4W ATL 30 1009
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