ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#181 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 5:58 am

If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#182 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:13 am

I still don’t see much happening until it moves further west of SA into the open water of the Western Caribbean. The building blocks are there; we’ll see if it can manage to develop into anything organized.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#183 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:15 am

GCANE wrote:If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.


it is pretty ridiculous looking at morning visible and watching this thing rapidly organizing.. also coming into Curaco radar range.. so later when the llc is covered up we can watch development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#184 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:26 am

06Z GFS is trending this further north as it approaches the Yucatan and gets it more under the Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break.
IF you want to go by GFS, any track farther north or any delay / weakening in the Rossby Wave, then intensification in the GoM becomes very real.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#185 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:26 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.


it is pretty ridiculous looking at morning visible and watching this thing rapidly organizing.. also coming into Curaco radar range.. so later when the llc is covered up we can watch development.


Awesome!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#186 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:28 am

GCANE wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
GCANE wrote:If this closes off today and strengthens, odds of going thru the Yucatan channel go up quite a bit.


it is pretty ridiculous looking at morning visible and watching this thing rapidly organizing.. also coming into Curaco radar range.. so later when the llc is covered up we can watch development.


Awesome!!


https://www.rainviewer.com/weather-radar-map-live.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#187 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:39 am

TUTT is moving straight south to grab that outflow channel.
I say by the time 97L gets south of Hispaniola, it'll kick in a new infeed from the EPAC and the TUTT will be nearly ideally located for max ventilation.
Could escalate quickly.
Any strong TS / Cat 1 coming into the GoM would very likely do major damage to the Rossby wave.
We all know what kind of hot water / high CAPE exists in the GoM.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#188 Postby wx98 » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:42 am

Latest TWO (20/60):
1. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing an area
of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. Significant
development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of
days while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the
wave is forecast to move more slowly westward, and a tropical
depression could form late this week or this weekend when it reaches
the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#189 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:44 am

first 10 visible images..

clear as day... Pun intended :P

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#190 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:46 am

First visible showing very rapid cirrus / CDO build up as a result of the debris from the towers.
New tower overshooting the cirrus with very high rain rate.
Convection is not washing out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#191 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:54 am

I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#192 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:56 am

:uarrow: Looking pretty good this morning. 97L looks to be gradually trying to get itself together in the Eastern Caribbean this morning. I an still not ecpecting signifucant development until it gets into the NW Caribbean in a few
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#193 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:59 am

Very obvious warm-core signature on radar.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#194 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:59 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: Looking pretty good this morning. 97L looks to be gradually trying to get itself together in the Eastern Caribbean this morning. I an still not ecpecting signifucant development until it gets into the NW Caribbean in a few days.


Dont worry, if not this upcoming ASCAT ... this evenings ASCAT will show a TD.. unless this convection completely collapses and shoots out an outflow destroying the developing llc. but no reason for that to happen.. lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#195 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:16 am

Deeper convection and more symmetrical as indicated by radar

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#196 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:21 am

Diurnal pressure should peak in about 2 hrs and then drop.
If convection keeps up till noon, a good chance for quick development this afternoon IMHO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#197 Postby robbielyn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..


What about Matthew 2016? It became a TS around the lower antilles. But you did say the word 'formed' so maybe because Matthew was already established as a TS it doesn't count?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#198 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:38 am

robbielyn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..


What about Matthew 2016? It became a TS around the lower antilles. But you did say the word 'formed' so maybe because Matthew was already established as a TS it doesn't count?


Right. a system that actually formed in this area.. I cant think of one. There is that historical website that people use to check this sort of thing. but forgot what it was.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#199 Postby USTropics » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:47 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
robbielyn wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I cant recall anything forming this close to south america in the central carribean? literally the least likely place for anything to develop.. but here we are..


What about Matthew 2016? It became a TS around the lower antilles. But you did say the word 'formed' so maybe because Matthew was already established as a TS it doesn't count?


https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80

Just type in North Atlantic first. You can then use the location pin and set radius (on mobile so can't pull an image right now).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#200 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:51 am

97L INVEST 200818 1200 13.2N 65.4W ATL 30 1009
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