ATL: LAURA - Models

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf really agressive on 98 l , down to 983 mb.

[TheProfessor]

I wouldn't automatically assume that the Ukie and Euro are underestimating the ridge. These models tend to have a left bias and sometimes overdue ridging(especially the Ukie) so if you see them east of the other models, especially together, you usually pay attention to it. That's not to say that they're not both wrong, it's just that it's not normal for them to be on the eastern side of guidance early on. However, as we all know, this year is anything but normal.

IN MY OPINION, If this goes out to sea, then I think everything is going to go out to sea this year(which obviously is a good thing), especially since it's only August, because August is the best chance for storms NOT to recurve...... It's usually not until September when storms get carried out to sea regularly by troughs. August suppose to be the time for long-trackers. Troughs are only going to get more intense and more frequent as we head into September, so then we will just have to watch the Carib and Gulf of Mexico...
I've just seen too many Septembers where it's trough after trough after trough after trough

I mentioned this in another thread but you have to be careful with that line of think in troughy patterns, especially when they're progressive. Storms can get left behind if one trough moves out in favor for short term ridging. That could be enough for a storm to landfall before the next trough comes. There's also the fact that a stronger trough that goes to negative tilt can actually reel in a hurricane like Sandy. Then there's the case of storms that are in the Caribbean do to the reemergence of the CAG that can cause a landfall like with Wilma. It's definitely too early to say anyone is out of the woods even if this storm re-curves.

[AtlanticWind]

Hmon gets it to hurricane strength, but then weakens it

[TheProfessor]

It would surprise me if this missed the US:

https://i.imgur.com/CuVZSxn.png

Yeah that's a pretty stout ridge at the end of the Ukie.

[AtlanticWind]

Hwrf continues to deepen at 90 hours.

[AtlanticWind]

Wow ,HWRF has 964mb with a pinhole eye approaching the lesser Antilles.

[Kingarabian]

Wow ,HWRF has 964mb with a pinhole eye approaching the lesser Antilles.

Yeah Irma or Maria vibes unfortunately.

[caneseddy]

I wouldn't automatically assume that the Ukie and Euro are underestimating the ridge. These models tend to have a left bias and sometimes overdue ridging(especially the Ukie) so if you see them east of the other models, especially together, you usually pay attention to it. That's not to say that they're not both wrong, it's just that it's not normal for them to be on the eastern side of guidance early on. However, as we all know, this year is anything but normal.

IN MY OPINION, If this goes out to sea, then I think everything is going to go out to sea this year(which obviously is a good thing), especially since it's only August, because August is the best chance for storms NOT to recurve...... It's usually not until September when storms get carried out to sea regularly by troughs. August suppose to be the time for long-trackers. Troughs are only going to get more intense and more frequent as we head into September, so then we will just have to watch the Carib and Gulf of Mexico...
I've just seen too many Septembers where it's trough after trough after trough after trough

Hugo, Donna, Irma, Ike, Dora, Ivan, Ike, Georges, 1926 Miami Hurricane, 1928 Lake Okeechobee, 1947 Fort Lauderdale, Floyd and many others would beg to differ with you on August being the month of long trackers and September being troughy

[AubreyStorm]

Wow ,HWRF has 964mb with a pinhole eye approaching the lesser Antilles.

Post link please

[AtlanticWind]

Wow ,HWRF has 964mb with a pinhole eye approaching the lesser Antilles.

Post link please

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=111

[caneseddy]

Wow ,HWRF has 964mb with a pinhole eye approaching the lesser Antilles.

Post link please

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 800&fh=111

HWRF barrels right over Puerto Rico

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF:

[MarioProtVI]

00z HWRF:
https://i.imgur.com/abjD6Uw.gif

That’s Maria Lite right there and almost same type of bulldozing the island...landfall seems around a high-end C2 (~105-110 mph).

[ColdMiser123]

Euro so far is a good bit south of 12z and weaker.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro at 120 hours just N of DR, decent S shift & weaker than 12z.

[USTropics]

This is headed to the GOM this run, much weaker just off the northern coast of Cuba:

[Blown Away]

00z Euro caves to the GFS...

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro caves to the GFS...

Ah the models will flip flop a lot I'm betting. They almost always do when it comes to these MDR systems.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro caves to the GFS...

Ah the models will flip flop a lot I'm betting. They almost always do when it comes to these MDR systems.

Agree 100%, especially 5+ days out, but GFS has been consistent w/ 98L more W, or L bias, into GOM whereas Euro has been much more R biased, which is unusual.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Idk about you guys, but i'm more concerned about the ridge than intensity.