ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

PTC next advisory?

1. A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
become a little better organized during the past several hours.
Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression will
likely form within the next day or two as it moves slowly westward
over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras
and Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to bring
heavy rainfall along with possible flash flooding to portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information,
refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[us89]

PTC next advisory?

Doubt it. PTCs are only used if watches or warnings need to be issued before the cyclone has formed. Since no land areas are likely to experience TS winds in 48 hours, I don't see the need.

[Owasso]

[Keldeo1997]

Upper level environment is as good as it gets here

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/HxBSC0nj/79322478.gif

Big towers!

[Iceresistance]

When is the next ASCAT pass?

[chaser1]

Difficult as it is making out low level flow from night-time satellite, it seems appearant to me that a LLC is becoming organized between 14N-15N on the northern edge of deeper convection that is presently firing up. I'm anticipating that NHC will tag this a T.D. sometime between late morning and afternoon today.

[Owasso]

[cycloneye]

8 AM: TD or TS to form later today or tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea have increased and become
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves slowly westward. Additional development of the
system is likely over the weekend, and interests in Honduras and
Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

8 AM: TD or TS to form later today or tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the central Caribbean Sea have increased and become
better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves slowly westward. Additional development of the
system is likely over the weekend, and interests in Honduras and
Nicaragua should closely monitor the progress of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

I hope that means we’re getting a PTC next advisory.

[Owasso]

[Owasso]

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/wxG6PF4y/image.png

Looks to be more south than the past best track position of 14.9N so expect the 12z to be more south. If this holds,then it will make landfall in Nicaragua sooner and not get a lot of ACE.

[cycloneye]

More south and up to 30kts and 1007 mbs.

98L INVEST 201113 1200 14.3N 74.0W ATL 30 1007

[Iceresistance]

More south and up to 30kts and 1007 mbs.

98L INVEST 201113 1200 14.3N 74.0W ATL 30 1007

getting stronger

[Owasso]

https://i.postimg.cc/wxG6PF4y/image.png

Looks to be more south than the past best track position of 14.9N so expect the 12z to be more south. If this holds,then it will make landfall in Nicaragua sooner and not get a lot of ACE.

Yeah, the center most likely got pulled SE into the heavier convection.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/wxG6PF4y/image.png

Looks to be more south than the past best track position of 14.9N so expect the 12z to be more south. If this holds,then it will make landfall in Nicaragua sooner and not get a lot of ACE.

But what if 98L explodes like Eta did?

[Iceresistance]

Saved loop of 98L, look at that CDO

[Nancy Smar]

AL312020 - Tropical Depression INVEST

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1327252602132729856