ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

The latest TVCN just updated (grey line) and shifted west very close to the FL east coast




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[BobHarlem]

Remember folks, the 6Z/18Z Euro are not as reliable as 0Z/12Z. I wouldn't put too much weight in this 6Z run until the 12Z confirms.

Granted, although I do think a general west shift in the models is in the cards.

[gatorcane]

CMC continues to do a sneaky good job on picking up on trends early on. What does the CMC pick up that the other models don’t quite factor in as much. Super interesting!

The CMC has done rather decent with modeling Isaias, along with the EURO.

Northjaxpro kudos for you to sniffing this stronger ridging out. You mentioned this might happen with more of a thumb ridge that drives the storm more west.

[toad strangler]

Euro ensembles with a decent SW shift too. Does the NHC incorporate the 6z/18z Euro into their forecasts? Not sure I've seen them mention those runs before.

Holy..

https://iili.io/d7SPtf.png

WOW. A sheared mess or not that ensemble sig would bring a little bit of dirt to the FL E Coast

[MJGarrison]

Remember folks, the 6Z/18Z Euro are not as reliable as 0Z/12Z. I wouldn't put too much weight in this 6Z run until the 12Z confirms.

Why would the 06Z not be as reliable? Even if not all of the data is new, a model with some new data and the benefit of an additional 6 hours of actuals should provide updated output.


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[AutoPenalti]

Remember folks, the 6Z/18Z Euro are not as reliable as 0Z/12Z. I wouldn't put too much weight in this 6Z run until the 12Z confirms.

I can give you the Happy Hour GFS but 06z is the FIRST to get updated forecast for the day, this after ingesting new data from 0z. So no, this is wrong.

[DestinHurricane]

Remember folks, the 6Z/18Z Euro are not as reliable as 0Z/12Z. I wouldn't put too much weight in this 6Z run until the 12Z confirms.

I can give you the Happy Hour GFS but 06z is the FIRST to get updated forecast for the day, this after ingesting new data from 0z. So no, this is wrong.

Might not be true, just something a pro met I know told me and I have heard it said on this site before.

[MJGarrison]

Remember folks, the 6Z/18Z Euro are not as reliable as 0Z/12Z. I wouldn't put too much weight in this 6Z run until the 12Z confirms.

I can give you the Happy Hour GFS but 06z is the FIRST to get updated forecast for the day, this after ingesting new data from 0z. So no, this is wrong.

I don’t disagree with you about the accuracy question, but 06Z was 8 hours ago. The 06Z model is run hours after 06Z so that actual data from 06Z can be included. My understanding is that the amount of 0Z and 12Z data available is greater than 06Z and 18Z which may account for the perception that 06Z and 18Z runs are not as accurate.


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[ava_ati]

Almost every 06z EPS member was over FL or skirting the coast

[northjaxpro]

CMC continues to do a sneaky good job on picking up on trends early on. What does the CMC pick up that the other models don’t quite factor in as much. Super interesting!

The CMC has done rather decent with modeling Isaias, along with the EURO.

Northjaxpro kudos for you to sniffing this stronger ridging out. You mentioned this might happen with more of a thumb ridge that drives the storm more west.

Just offering my thoughts and analysis on the forum. Thanks for the nod Gatorcane. Well, I have seen this play out with so many cyclones through the years when they come into the Caribbean disorganized on their approach to Hispaniola. I mentioned yesterday and I am sure the other pro analysts have mentioned how cyclones can organize at times and tighten up from the frictional effects of the island. Isaias indeed pulled the trick yesterday and intensified into a hurricane last night.

However, the ridge , which the EURO, and to a similar extent the CMC, has consistently all week forecast a stout ridge to correlate with the current +NAO, and has actually pushed Isaias slighly south of west since early this morning. At the same time, the cyclone has weakened due to some shear, and the steering flow from the ridge is flexing its muscle for the moment.

[ronjon]

TVCN model consensus trend above doesn't include new 06z Euro so look for further shifts to the west. What does NHC do at 11 am? I think they nudge it a little closer to the Florida east coast but wait for the 12z model suite to confirm to make any major changes to track or warnings.

[BobHarlem]

TVCN model consensus trend above doesn't include new 06z Euro so look for further shifts to the west. What does NHC do at 11 am? I think they nudge it a little closer to the Florida east coast but wait for the 12z model suite to confirm to make any major changes to track or warnings.

Watches will probably be put up much more liberally along Florida at least, the timing is just to narrow otherwise.

[ava_ati]

TVCN model consensus trend above doesn't include new 06z Euro so look for further shifts to the west. What does NHC do at 11 am? I think they nudge it a little closer to the Florida east coast but wait for the 12z model suite to confirm to make any major changes to track or warnings.

More than likely wait til 5pm to make any drastic moves, if there is one thing the NHC is good at it is not jumping around to the latest model like we do here (thank goodness).

[northjaxpro]

Almost every 06z EPS member was over FL or skirting the coast
https://i.imgur.com/Gi7Ip28.gif

Obviously very unaminous of the EPS ensembles.!

I

[HurricaneEnzo]

wrong thread

[tolakram]

That 6Z Euro run looks off, was there a data problem perhaps. I can see a shift, but for a change that radical with all the ensembles either new data was ingested or something is missing IMO.

[gatorcane]

They must be putting in sampled data into the models. Even the 12z NAM clearly has more ridging at 500MB and 700MB than the 06Z out through 12 hours. I wouldn’t expect even the NAM to be this different between runs in this timeframe. Storm is also a bit weaker.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I caught the last part of an update on TWC and I'm pretty sure Cantore said they had planes out there sampling the atmosphere around the storm now so maybe some of it did make it into the models.

[TheStormExpert]

Almost every 06z EPS member was over FL or skirting the coast
https://i.imgur.com/Gi7Ip28.gif

Nothing too absurdly strong either.

[AutoPenalti]

I caught the last part of an update on TWC and I'm pretty sure Cantore said they had planes out there sampling the atmosphere around the storm now so maybe some of it did make it into the models.

Not yet, I believe it will be updated by 18z