ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ivanhater]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm sure GFS will be Galveston then Matagorda then Corpus over the next few days #KingEuro

GFS hits the Triangle at 969 Thursday 1am or so.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126

Is that about where Rita hit?

A little further west. I wonder how west these models can possibly move.

[eastcoastFL]

Rita like path

[Steve]

Is that about where Rita hit?

Rita made landfall in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.

Is that near the Texas border? I’m not familiar with Louisiana

Yeah. Cameron Parish is a rural/wildlife parish (county) that borders Texas. It's below Lake Charles and the south-western most parish in the state.

[DestinHurricane]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

Yeah looks like we are pretty much all clear here in the panhandle. There's a remote possibility models come back east, but most likely not.

[SoupBone]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

But you're now talking about a building high pressure ridge, all the way over most of Texas? What would be driving that?

[eastcoastFL]

So where is the trough that is supposed to create the shear that weakens Marco on approach to Texas? Does it just move out right before Laura rolls in and the high pressure builds immediately back in?

[eastcoastFL]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

Yeah looks like we are pretty much all clear here in the panhandle. There's a remote possibility models come back east, but most likely not.

Ya it’s looking much better for the eastern panhandle at the moment, pretty amazing set up with this High pressure all over.

[Steve]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

But you're now talking about a building high pressure ridge, all the way over most of Texas? What would be driving that?

Since last week, once the Gulf trough split and lifted out, High Pressure was to build in across the SE US. Additionally, there was progged to be a massive heat ridge in the SW and Plains. Several models had those ridges connecting across the Southern US. GFS does now even moreso than some of the models that handled the whole genesis better. Check it out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 200&fh=126

^^ Summer time.

[Kazmit]

[Hammy]

So where is the trough that is supposed to create the shear that weakens Marco on approach to Texas? Does it just move out right before Laura rolls in and the high pressure builds immediately back in?

Seems like the case. GFS run looks like Marco moves right into the trough as Laura is moving in, with a bit of easterly shear plus reorganization from land keeping it in check--until it moves a bit more NW right under the high that's left behind by the trough. GFS is in line with the NAM at the moment, having a weak system out to 84 hours (which is as far out as the NAM runs go), with rapid intensification kicking in through Wednesday.

[Steve]

I got firewalled on image links for a while. :/

CMC @ 54. Both entities exist
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2200&fh=54

[pcolaman]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

Yeah looks like we are pretty much all clear here in the panhandle. There's a remote possibility models come back east, but most likely not.

Lol windshield wiper in full effect lol . Not going to believe the models till it's 5 days out. I see that the models have gone back and forth with what storm will be the dominant storm. They are having troubles with what the atmosphere will be left with after one storm goes through that close together. We shall see what happens.

[CrazyC83]

We have extra balloon and G-IV data in these sets too. This likely means the ridge is strong.

[Hammy]

We have extra balloon and G-IV data in these sets too. This likely means the ridge is strong.

The sudden jump towards a stronger system over the course of the modeling has been quite interesting today especially given some models insistence on nothing coming from Laura, have those helped with the upper air/moisture data as well and contributed? I know the runs tend to change once more data goes into the models on quite a few occasions.

[eastcoastFL]

So where is the trough that is supposed to create the shear that weakens Marco on approach to Texas? Does it just move out right before Laura rolls in and the high pressure builds immediately back in?

Seems like the case. GFS run looks like Marco moves right into the trough as Laura is moving in, with a bit of easterly shear plus reorganization from land keeping it in check--until it moves a bit more NW right under the high that's left behind by the trough. GFS is in line with the NAM at the moment, having a weak system out to 84 hours (which is as far out as the NAM runs go), with rapid intensification kicking in through Wednesday.

This is a stupid question but if the high builds back in after the trough lifts out what is it that then weakens the high allowing Laura to push onshore? Why doesn’t block Laura or push it back towards the gulf? Is there another trough or shortwave picking it up or weakening the high? I hope that makes sense

[CrazyC83]

We have extra balloon and G-IV data in these sets too. This likely means the ridge is strong.

The sudden jump towards a stronger system over the course of the modeling has been quite interesting today especially given some models insistence on nothing coming from Laura, have those helped with the upper air/moisture data as well and contributed? I know the runs tend to change once more data goes into the models on quite a few occasions.

If Laura hits a rebuilding ridge, it will add an extra outflow channel in the upper levels and reduce shear. All that increases the likelihood of rapid intensification.

[Steve]

With model trends and euro ensembles, this very well go toward south or the central Texas coast

Yeah looks like we are pretty much all clear here in the panhandle. There's a remote possibility models come back east, but most likely not.

Lol windshield wiper in full effect lol . Not going to believe the models till it's 5 days out. I see that the models have gone back and forth with what storm will be the dominant storm. They are having troubles with what the atmosphere will be left with after one storm goes through that close together. We shall see what happens.

It kind of is 5 days out for the majority of the tracks. Maybe not landfall but you’d be believing about 80% of what they show.

[FLpanhandle91]

CMC with a large east shift for 00z. Brings a cat 1 into the Gulf Shores, AL area.

[Steve]

So where is the trough that is supposed to create the shear that weakens Marco on approach to Texas? Does it just move out right before Laura rolls in and the high pressure builds immediately back in?

Seems like the case. GFS run looks like Marco moves right into the trough as Laura is moving in, with a bit of easterly shear plus reorganization from land keeping it in check--until it moves a bit more NW right under the high that's left behind by the trough. GFS is in line with the NAM at the moment, having a weak system out to 84 hours (which is as far out as the NAM runs go), with rapid intensification kicking in through Wednesday.

This is a stupid question but if the high builds back in after the trough lifts out what is it that then weakens the high allowing Laura to push onshore? Why doesn’t block Laura or push it back towards the gulf? Is there another trough or shortwave picking it up or weakening the high? I hope that makes sense

It does. Eventually it will get past the periphery or it would just keep rolling westward. Maybe there is a small break along the way. You never know. Always seems to be a random late upper low to throw in a monkey wrench