ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[ClarCari]

Isaias spent half it’s life as a pain in the crack to track 92L/PTC9 and the other half as a pain in the crack to track tropical cyclone-looking thing...

I think or hoping lol this version of 92L will be a cake walk once the ball starts rolling.

[tiger_deF]

It feels like this whole area of the WATL has been practically stationary the entire week

[aspen]

It looks like there are two competing circulations associated with this wave. 92L is designated at the eastern circulation. Either one will become dominant and develop, or both could develop and head off away from each other; the former seems more likely.

[ClarCari]

It feels like this whole area of the WATL has been practically stationary the entire week

This is why I take the NHC’s 5-Day odds with a grain of sugar; sweet to absorb but not as good long-term..That analogy maybe sucked but it’s easy to look at high 5 day odds but near 0% 2 day odds and get fatigued and impatient waiting several days for the 2 day odds to finally start increasing.

[abajan]

Looking pretty good tonight. Seems there's a circulation centered near 17N 33W. But there's probably another under the blowup of convection:

[tiger_deF]

Looking pretty good tonight. Seems there's a circulation centered near 17N 33W. But there's probably another under the blowup of convection:

https://i.imgur.com/qrGydMy.gif

Pretty textbook look of a developing invest

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Development chances up to 40%/80%

[GCANE]

Some really big time TPW phasing and phasing with the big-ass polar-vortex Rossby Wave.
An extra-tropical monster will slam someone in Europe.
Probably Ireland.

[aspen]

Up to 50/90 in the latest TWO.

[Emmett_Brown]

92L exhibiting similar structure to the early days of Isaias; elongated with dual battling areas of vorticity in the east and west ends, and a nice dash of SAL to the north. I would expect development to take longer than the models show.

[AnnularCane]

92L exhibiting similar structure to the early days of Isaias; elongated with dual battling areas of vorticity in the east and west ends, and a nice dash of SAL to the north. I would expect development to take longer than the models show.

In other words, like the previous 92L?

If that kind of thing keeps up, 92L may develop a 99L-like reputation.

[aspen]

Up from 50/90 to 60/90 in the 2pm tropical weather outlook.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave and area of low pressure located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected while it moves westward to
west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[aspen]

Now up to 70/90.

It is similar to the previous 92L due to its broad spin, but it’s not as ridiculously large and should coalesce easier, especially since there currently aren’t two competing areas of convection and vorticity (the whole wave is relatively convection-free but could centralize around wherever the most convection starts firing first).

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave and area of low pressure located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is expected while it moves westward to
west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[curtadams]

70/90 seems too high for an invest nearly devoid of deep convection and relatively far north (=cooler water and drier air in the East Atlantic).

[ClarCari]

Up to 80/90 now!

70/90 seems too high for an invest nearly devoid of deep convection and relatively far north (=cooler water and drier air in the East Atlantic).

The SAL charts have shown the dry air in front of everything has been thinning out and will continue to thin out through tomorrow. Convection will then popup and help keep itself moist.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast
of Africa and the Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better
defined. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain
disorganized. Gradual development of this system is expected, and
a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or so while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302586758778028034

[cycloneye]

Much more south that the 18.7 of 06z.

92L INVEST 200906 1200 16.7N 39.5W ATL 30 1006