ATL: SALLY - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Looks like the Euro wants it to scrape the Panhandle then head west over Alabama and Mississippi coastlines.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Stronger will turn more northerly.. so given its current trend middle panhandle is possible with a deepening system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
It seems the models all want to stall this out near the coast. This could be a serious rainmaker.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:3 days of a slow scrape of NW Florida to SE Lousiana
With it being so close I wonder if we’ll see tropical storm watches issued for the northern gulf coast soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
The 12Z EPS is much more active than any prior EPS with a very slow moving TD/TS+ likely creating big problems due to very heavy rainfall centered on the coasts of MS, AL and the FL Panhandle.
Edit: the 12Z EPS has a whopping 8” of rainfall through hour 174 along parts of the coast of the FL Panhandle!
Edit: the 12Z EPS has a whopping 8” of rainfall through hour 174 along parts of the coast of the FL Panhandle!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- LowerAlabamaTider
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
We could use some rain now, but we definitely don't need a strong TS or possibly a hurricane.
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- fwbbreeze
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
LarryWx wrote:Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:
https://i.imgur.com/a6lgJQe.png
Edited because reading the word "cumulative" is something my brain refused to read for 11 seconds.
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- LowerAlabamaTider
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
LarryWx wrote:Danger, danger Will Robinson! Get the boats ready along the Gulf coast. This, from the 12Z EPS, is one real ugly precip map, especially considering this is from a 51 member ensemble. Hopefully this changes for the better:
https://i.imgur.com/a6lgJQe.png
I said we needed some rain, but that would be over doing it just a tad!
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
This is gonna be a problem if it strengthens to a hurricane. Don’t like the direction
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
This is a slow mover. Ugh.
What does the NHC see that pushes this on a more westward bend towards the end? Is the ridge building in?
What does the NHC see that pushes this on a more westward bend towards the end? Is the ridge building in?
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Building ridge
BigB0882 wrote:This is a slow mover. Ugh.
What does the NHC see that pushes this on a more westward bend towards the end? Is the ridge building in?
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- jasons2k
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ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Please keep the general discussion to the discussion thread and keep this one about models.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
HMON landfalls in SE FL around 9z Sat, moving WNW, exits around Charlotte Harbor. Pressure drops a couple of mb across SFL, so strengthens a little moving over land.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Wow, the GEFS is very tightly clustered on a TX landfall. Incredible. However, it stays quite weak and weakens upon landfall. Are conditions going to be less favorable in the western gulf? Seems conditions are just about perfect right up to the central gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
18z HWRF has its 1st landfall (in Florida) at 15 hours as a TS with 50 kts (58 mph, 93 kmh).
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