ATL: DELTA - Models

[chaser1]

I think the GFS and GFS-Para are too far north for 92L just like they were for Gamma. I don’t see how the wave will rapidly move so far north when it and all of its associated vorticity has remained south for the last few days.

I agree. If upper level conditions were exceptional then a vertically stacked storm might well begin to gain latitude in the near term. I just don't see those conditions being that ideal for that to occur anytime fast.

It’s getting better organized and conditions are expected to become quite favorable see nhc 2pm. 30-60% now

Correct, and quoting the NHC "..... and a tropical depression could form next week". I however see an upper level TUTT abutting this disturbance which will likely continue to shunt convection from remaining over center today, tonight and tomorrow which I would characterize as near term. Models do depict much better upper level conditions beginning on Monday IF this disturbance were in the Northwest Caribbean west and/or north of Jamaica. South of 20N however, not so much. So, what I think remains to be determined is whether this low to mid level feature that clearly has developed will remain the dominant center and track more NNW to NW or more west to WNW as NHC suggests.

[aspen]

The fact that the Euro is showing relatively quick development and a rather significant TC is concerning, given how favorable the environment will be according to SHIPS and how bearish the Euro has been. Just yesterday, it had an open wave where there is currently a borderline Cat 1 hurricane.

[chaser1]

I think the GFS and GFS-Para are too far north for 92L just like they were for Gamma. I don’t see how the wave will rapidly move so far north when it and all of its associated vorticity has remained south for the last few days.

I agree. If upper level conditions were exceptional then a vertically stacked storm might well begin to gain latitude in the near term. I just don't see those conditions being that ideal for that to occur anytime fast.

For sure. But we likely will also have somewhat of a gyre setting up with potential, multiple low level center interaction (per some models). I’m assuming in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe we should start to see the evolution and whether they end up with some type of energy merger or transfer with one strengthening over the other, then orbiting around a gyre or whatever. It’s a cool setup to watch that I don’t recall ever being exactly like this before.

I think you're right on with that general time frame; in fact may have another westward moving wave and entering the picture mid week as well.

[aspen]

12z GFS-Para is further south than the 6z. The 12z GFS is by far the slowest of the 12z models in terms of development and forward speed.

[blp]

12z GFS Para stronger and little more west than 06z. Para did the best on the intensity with Gamma so I think this run needs to be taken seriously with Euro trending stronger and further east.

[SconnieCane]

Of course with two TCs in the EPAC for good measure...

Couple of 5-day AOIs in that basin though according to NHC so it may not be out of the realm of possibility.

[aspen]

HWRF-P is further SW and stronger than yesterday's runs. It has a close-to-developed TC tomorrow afternoon and doesn't have it hit Cuba for another 69-75 hours. It even shows intensification in the Gulf after 3 days, but I'm skeptical of that. The short-term forecast for Gamma and 92L seems very reasonable.

[Nimbus]

Apparently the HWRF feels the moist air will be back mid gulf by next Thursday which usually requires some ridging?
And if there is ridging there is deep level steering.
Interesting.

[stormlover2013]

Models suck this year

[Blown Away]

Not sure if we have a truly defined LLC, being the first few runs for 92L, it’s October, chances high the long term solution will be something completely different than what’s being presented now. JMHO

[Nimbus]

Not sure if we have a truly defined LLC, being the first few runs for 92L, it’s October, chances high the long term solution will be something completely different than what’s being presented now. JMHO

The Thursday HWRF ridge appears to be centered east of Florida.
Ridge models at 5 days are usually more accurate than the high resolution details like storm intensity.

[Steve]

ICON 18z is running though it only goes to 5 days on this output (120h). Through 75, Gamma has rotated across the top of the Yucatán and is in the BoC. Not much yet on it from 92l.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0318&fh=75

[cp79]

18z GFS is running. Definitely has a "Dennis-like" track through Cuba and into the Eastern Gulf compared to the Euro which takes more of an Ivan track into the Gulf. For those who don't remember those two storms, here they are (Dennis upper, Ivan lower):





The question is whether there's enough steering to pull it into land or is it just going to drift around like the Euro suggest. GFS is also suggesting a westward turn and drift in the Gulf.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is running. Definitely has a "Dennis-like" track through Cuba and into the Eastern Gulf compared to the Euro which takes more of an Ivan track into the Gulf. For those who don't remember those two storms, here they are (Dennis upper, Ivan lower):

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Dennis_2005_track.png .

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png

The question is whether there's enough steering to pull it into land or is it just going to drift around like the Euro suggest. GFS is also suggesting a westward turn and drift in the Gulf.

It does, but October usually adds much higher level of unpredictability

[cp79]

Like the Euro, it pretty much kills the system in the Gulf. Just have to wonder if the conditions in the Central Gulf are there for strengthening. Seems like the big models run it into a wall of shear and destroy it. Hate to say it, but the only way this hits as a powerful storm is if it were to hit Florida. The further west it moves, the more doomed it is.

[aspen]

18z GFS is running. Definitely has a "Dennis-like" track through Cuba and into the Eastern Gulf compared to the Euro which takes more of an Ivan track into the Gulf. For those who don't remember those two storms, here they are (Dennis upper, Ivan lower):

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Dennis_2005_track.png

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png

The question is whether there's enough steering to pull it into land or is it just going to drift around like the Euro suggest. GFS is also suggesting a westward turn and drift in the Gulf.

I think the most important question is whether we get a Dennis-like track (direct landfall) or an Ivan-like track (minimal to no land interaction). The former would limit intensity, while the latter could allow Delta to RI before getting eviscerated in the Gulf.

[blp]

18z GFS vs 12z look more like the Para now. Big shift north and stronger.

[SFLcane]

18z GFS vs 12z look more like the Para now. Big shift north and stronger.

https://i.ibb.co/dMVmtws/gfs-mslp-wind-watl-fh78-trend.gif

Interesting but conditions look quite hostile in the GOM.

[cp79]

If it were to stay in the Eastern Gulf it could stay strong. But the central gulf is more hostile.

Interestingly the 18z HWRF does a bit of an Elena. Stalls it in the Eastern Gulf and keeps relatively strong. The more west it goes in the Gulf, the more will it get ripped apart.

[blp]

18z vs 12z HWRF is more east as well. Looks like models tonight leaning more towards Eastern Gulf.