The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week.
We could see two tropical cyclones by the end of the week.