ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

I agree it's a possibility. The 02Z HRRR kind of shows it taking its time a little more than some of the earlier runs and spins a broad low at the coast over the next 12-14 hours or so rather than 3. We'll see.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Seems like the center is once again regaining definition/structure on radar. Still moving ESE.

What a resilient little thing.

[Extratropical94]

No change at 2am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure centered inland over South Carolina
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and heavy
rain over portions of the southeastern United States. The low is
expected to move east-northeastward toward the coast later today
and then turn northeastward near or just offshore of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states Thursday and Friday, where
a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form if the low moves
over water. Regardless of development, the low is expected to
to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause flash
flooding across portions of the southeastern and mid-Atlantic
U.S. during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks like a new center has spawned south of Wilmington while the center over SC has degraded. I somewhat doubt that this will be the last example of some sort of center reformation we get out of this thing.

Will be interesting to watch over the coming hours.

[GCANE]

Very quickly developing a feeder band from that large 4000 CAPE Ridge in the Bahamas.
Looks like a high-helicity tower fired off and resultant vort started to entrain the unstable air.
Last AMSU analysis of the core shows it is still intact but about 0.5C cooler since yesterday.

[GCANE]

Looks like the convection is firing along a moderate shear gradient and at the edge of a 355K PV ridge.
925mb vort is very broad.
Seeing multiple high-helicity towers continue to fire well offshore.
High CAPE values setting up in the north GOM. Should get stronger later today.
I would say if the towers continue for a few more hours, it is very likely a surface low forms offshore.
It would then likely kick in a second feeder band from the NE GOM high CAPE area.
Recon scheduled to be there in about 10 hours.

[GCANE]

Surface obs showing this is very close to the coast if not in the water.

[GCANE]

Towers defintely reforming this offshore.
Its ramping quickly.

[GCANE]

Looks like a weak anticyclone is over NE FL.
If heavy convection persists, it could draw it over the CoC.

[GCANE]

Looks like the second feeder band may already be forming from the NE GOM.
Seeing convection pop up over northern FL.

[Kingarabian]

Towers defintely reforming this offshore.
Its ramping quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/ZLhUy9g.png

That means there's a possibility that a LLC will be much more compact than what the global models are showing and will keep most of circulation over sufficiently warm water. I think the UKMET is on to something.

[GCANE]

Another 24 hrs and it should tap into that high-amplitude wave that is just about to go over DR.

[GCANE]

Outflow is going to town on this.
Good chance the anticyclone moves over this.

[Aric Dunn]

well look what we have here..

center from surface obs appears to be ese of Myrtle beach and deepening..

the HRRR pretty much nailed the crap out of this..

could actually see another vort form well south given the tilt to surface flow.

[BYG Jacob]

Another 24 hrs and it should tap into that high-amplitude wave that is just about to go over DR.

https://i.imgur.com/m9DINdO.png

https://i.imgur.com/z3ftCD3.png

One heck of a moisture pocket its got to work with there

[Aric Dunn]

the funny thing..

the remnants of the old circ are about to cross the coast way down at savannah..

[Aric Dunn]

NHC ups it 60-70%

but being conservative on location.

it is offshore already.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure is located along the coast of
northeastern South Carolina. This system is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic
waters. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just
offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then
turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast
Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form
within the next couple of days. Regardless of development, the low
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause
some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the
coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few
days. Gusty winds are also possible in the North Carolina Outer
Banks through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[aspen]

I think there’s a good chance that by the end of the day, we will have a forming TC with far greater confidence in the location of its center and its path. It already looks to be getting its act together.

[cycloneye]

Recon will be out there late this afternoon if they decide to fly.