EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone have a link to Douglas’ ADT page?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2 ... E-list.txt

[aspen]

Does anyone have a link to Douglas’ ADT page?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2 ... E-list.txt

I should’ve reworded that better. I’m looking for that live ADT page CIMSS has. I didn’t know NOAA had one.

Also, seriously? 105 kt for 12z?

[Highteeld]

Would probably guess around 115 kt/948 mb at this point. Eye is very well defined right now; cloud tops are the main limiting factor

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone have a link to Douglas’ ADT page?

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2 ... E-list.txt

I should’ve reworded that better. I’m looking for that live ADT page CIMSS has. I didn’t know NOAA had one.

Also, seriously? 105 kt for 12z?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt08E.html
You mean this one? The Hurricane Douglas link didn't show up on the ADT overview page for a couple of minutes/hours for some reason.

[aspen]

Would probably guess around 115 kt/948 mb at this point. Eye is very well defined right now; cloud tops are the main limiting factor

Reminds me of Dorian and how it too had an extremely well defined CDO and warm eye, but cloud tops were surprisingly shallow for its intensity. The key difference is that there’s no way Douglas is a 160 kt Cat 5.

[supercane4867]

110kt based on ADT.

[aspen]

They kept it at 105 kt...how? This is easily a Cat 4.

[EquusStorm]

Looking absolutely phenomenal. Definitely underestimated

[Do_For_Love]

This storm is a beast, crazy that with all the focus on the Atlantic that Hawaii might get the most serious impact of this early season

[Kingarabian]

Still a bit dry around the eyewall but regardless, this is a solid eyewall.

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours
with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures
becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a
little more steady state. The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which
nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON). The
cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before
it encounters SSTs less than 26C. Douglas should only slowly
weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters
along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain
low through Saturday. As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian
Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and
thus a continued weakening is forecast. Model guidance is
consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were
made to the NHC wind speed prediction.

Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or
290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central
Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general
course and speed for the next couple of days, with some
deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. While the
guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant
change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the
previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[aspen]

Still a bit dry around the eyewall but regardless, this is a solid eyewall.
https://i.imgur.com/23MW5ms.png

Almost looks like there was a second eyewall trying to form, but has been weakened by dry air and is being absorbed back into the main one. Maybe dry air could halt an EWRC like what possibly happened with Dorian, and Douglas can at least maintain its intensity before moving over 26 C and colder waters.

[Kingarabian]

Still a bit dry around the eyewall but regardless, this is a solid eyewall.
https://i.imgur.com/23MW5ms.png

Almost looks like there was a second eyewall trying to form, but has been weakened by dry air and is being absorbed back into the main one. Maybe dry air could halt an EWRC like what possibly happened with Dorian, and Douglas can at least maintain its intensity before moving over 26 C and colder waters.

Unless the Hawaii shear stops retrograding, thing thing might really maintain hurricane strength. Reason why is because it's moving very fast.

Watches or Warnings should be up soon.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Douglas keeps looking better and better. Using the good ole 'eye test' again I would imagine this is no less than a mid to upper level Cat 4 currently. Of course that is far from official I know the word 'annular' is a buzzword that is thrown around a lot but almost looks like it is starting to go annular looking at the western half of the storm.

[SconnieCane]

Douglas keeps looking better and better. Using the good ole 'eye test' again I would imagine this is no less than a mid to upper level Cat 4 currently. Of course that is far from official I know the word 'annular' is a buzzword that is thrown around a lot but almost looks like it is starting to go annular looking at the western half of the storm.

Yup. Nice symmetrical "doughnut" CDO and modest banding. For it to be truly annualar, though; I think the eye needs to be bigger (the "doughnut hole") and even less banding.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Douglas keeps looking better and better. Using the good ole 'eye test' again I would imagine this is no less than a mid to upper level Cat 4 currently. Of course that is far from official I know the word 'annular' is a buzzword that is thrown around a lot but almost looks like it is starting to go annular looking at the western half of the storm.

Yup. Nice symmetrical "doughnut" CDO and modest banding. For it to be truly annualar, though; I think the eye needs to be bigger (the "doughnut hole") and even less banding.

Yep looks to be in the process of at least trying to do that. Also a fairly common occurrence in this part of the world. For whatever reason the conditions seem to be very conducive for annular type storms in this area.

[aspen]

The Cat 3/4 EPac beauty we’ve all been waiting for.

[Shell Mound]

TXPZ25 KNES 231227
TCSENP

A. 08E (DOUGLAS)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 13.3N

D. 135.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...PEAK INTENSITY MAY HAVE OCCURRED AT 0530Z WHEN THE DT WAS
A 6.0. A WMG EYE WAS MEASURED, EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A RING TEMP OF LG,
CREATING AN EYE ADJ OF +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

Are we looking at the same storm?

Does anyone know why some of these Dvorak estimates have become more conservative this year?

[plasticup]

The Cat 3/4 EPac beauty we’ve all been waiting for.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020ep08/1kmsrvis/2020ep08_1kmsrvis_202007231610.gif

This really is one of the prettiest storms in a while.

[HurricaneEnzo]

TXPZ25 KNES 231227
TCSENP

A. 08E (DOUGLAS)

B. 23/1130Z

C. 13.3N

D. 135.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...PEAK INTENSITY MAY HAVE OCCURRED AT 0530Z WHEN THE DT WAS
A 6.0. A WMG EYE WAS MEASURED, EMBEDDED IN MG WITH A RING TEMP OF LG,
CREATING AN EYE ADJ OF +0.5, RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.0. THE MET AND PT
AGREE AND THE FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MLEVINE

Are we looking at the same storm?

Does anyone know why some of these Dvorak estimates have become more conservative this year?

I've honestly been wondering the same thing. Did the formula change or something? New guy? What's going on here lol