ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Didn’t see anyone post the GFS ensembles. They are MUCH stronger but most recurve well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmb6PV3t/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-32.png

Wouldn’t surprise me if next run we’re fishing!

[DestinHurricane]

Didn’t see anyone post the GFS ensembles. They are MUCH stronger but most recurve well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmb6PV3t/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-32.png

Wouldn’t surprise me if next run we’re fishing!

Yep. This starting to look like nothing more than a fish.

[toad strangler]

Didn’t see anyone post the GFS ensembles. They are MUCH stronger but most recurve well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmb6PV3t/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-32.png

Wouldn’t surprise me if next run we’re fishing!

It wouldn't surprise anybody. It's climo (for the US , not the Islands) for the 18 hundredth time

[AutoPenalti]

Didn’t see anyone post the GFS ensembles. They are MUCH stronger but most recurve well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/vmb6PV3t/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-32.png

Wouldn’t surprise me if next run we’re fishing!

Yep. This starting to look like nothing more than a fish.

Bold of you to assume that. We still have a whole week.

[chaser1]

Not sure what caused the weakening (maybe Hispaniola?) but 12z runs have nudged north from last nights runs.

From what I see at that time frame from the more detailed GFS maps, is that this system approaching PR is situated well on the SW flank of the co-located upper anticyclone. The two move more or less in tandem toward the Eastern Bahamas. I'm not really seeing what prohibits the storm to help build (or extend) that upper high more to the west and over itself, except to think that models are moving the storm quick enough to the west that the low/mid level circulation might be forecast to outrun it's more favorable upper support. All in all, my greatest concern for an increased risk of intensity and westward track through the Bahamas, Florida and into the Gulf would be if actual development and forward motion were to trend slower with time. At minimum, this might imply a greater risk of the forecast trough to have pulled up and out, and high pressure bridging over the region. Always a game of inches.

[TheStormExpert]

Wouldn’t surprise me if next run we’re fishing!

Yep. This starting to look like nothing more than a fish.

Bold of you to assume that. We still have a whole week.

Not really. Climo favors it, and there hasn’t been much of a Bermuda High this year to steer storms into the U.S.

[AutoPenalti]

Yep. This starting to look like nothing more than a fish.

Bold of you to assume that. We still have a whole week.

Not really. Climo favors it, and there hasn’t been much of a Bermuda High this year to steer storms into the U.S.

Regardless, this year has gone against Climo.

[TheStormExpert]

Bold of you to assume that. We still have a whole week.

Not really. Climo favors it, and there hasn’t been much of a Bermuda High this year to steer storms into the U.S.

Regardless, this year has gone against Climo.

Still the vast majority of Cape Verde storms recurve.

[AutoPenalti]

Not really. Climo favors it, and there hasn’t been much of a Bermuda High this year to steer storms into the U.S.

Regardless, this year has gone against Climo.

Still the vast majority of Cape Verde storms recurve.

We’ll see but I’m having big doubts on a recurve.

[otowntiger]

Yes, latest Euro now has it as a weak 1002 low off Fl heading north toward the Carolina's.
After multiple runs as weak in the west carib/GoMex.

May I be excused, my brain is full.

At least it will lead to countless discussions over the next week.

. Weak AND recurving- recipe for a much quieter thread, lol.

[otowntiger]

Not really. Climo favors it, and there hasn’t been much of a Bermuda High this year to steer storms into the U.S.

Regardless, this year has gone against Climo.

Still the vast majority of Cape Verde storms recurve.

very true.

[Evil Jeremy]

240 hours out is essentially fantasy land. No point in getting married to specific solutions this far out. We are still a good 3-5 days from having a semblance of a clear picture as to where this storm will end up post-Caribbean. Trying to push narratives in the 10-day range is pointless.

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that there is likely to be a Hurricane in the NE Caribbean in 5 days.

[sma10]

Regardless, this year has gone against Climo.

Still the vast majority of Cape Verde storms recurve.

We’ll see but I’m having big doubts on a recurve.

Plus, the year 2020 seems to be trending towards chaos, and while I am not the superstitious type, I do believe in the balance of nature ... and right now, nature seems to be saying "buckle up"

[chaser1]

One thing to keep in mind is that we're not talking about end of August or September. Typically we see the highest Atlantic low to mid level heights during end of July and into early August. Doesn't mean a storm won't recurve but this season is not screaming weak W. Atlantic Ridging nor is the present pattern displaying a semi-permanent E. Coast trough. Just looking at our most recent two storm tracks ( Gonzo and Hanna Montana), they suggested an overall strong W. Atlantic ridge pattern with tracks that were clearly more "east to west" then "south to north". I wouldn't rule out 92L still tracking toward (or even south of Hispaniola), but nor would I rule out a track just north of the Islands and toward Florida from the ESE. Given the general pattern and given the time of year, I'd bet on either complete dissipation or a landfall somewhere in the Caribbean, Florida, or CONUS before thinking that this storm will simply recurve just to pound N. Atlantic fish.

[BobHarlem]

Watch 0z swing back to a Caribbean runner.

[TheStormExpert]

240 hours out is essentially fantasy land. No point in getting married to specific solutions this far out. We are still a good 3-5 days from having a semblance of a clear picture as to where this storm will end up post-Caribbean. Trying to push narratives in the 10-day range is pointless.

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that there is likely to be a Hurricane in the NE Caribbean in 5 days.

I wouldn’t guarantee a hurricane in 5 days, but 8-10 days likely.

[plasticup]

Well that gets your attention:

[toad strangler]

I wish this place had the weenie emoticon

[HurricaneFrances04]

[SFLcane]

12z EPS strong signal for recurve this afternoon.