ATL: MARCO - Models

[SoupBone]

ICON valid 120 hours. It may be a bit too far east. Props for leading the way with the system to begin with (along with the CMC at times). But I don't see a drop of 1mb crossing the loop current. Conditions shouldn't be that bad in the middle Gulf that it couldn't intensify more than it is showing. So I'm questioning the track and the intensity if it was to follow that track.
https://i.imgur.com/mItZQqd.png

I'm not following. The CMC showed a Mexico, slight Texas solution today.

[stormlover2013]

120 hours below Louisiana, high pressure to hits north, we need a center for the models to latch on 2

Hey '13, you're usually 5 or so minutes ahead of Tropical Tidbits. Are you going to the source sites or an aggregator of models site like weatherbell?

I’m using weatherbell

[Javlin]

ICON valid 120 hours. It may be a bit too far east. Props for leading the way with the system to begin with (along with the CMC at times). But I don't see a drop of 1mb crossing the loop current. Conditions shouldn't be that bad in the middle Gulf that it couldn't intensify more than it is showing. So I'm questioning the track and the intensity if it was to follow that track.
https://i.imgur.com/mItZQqd.png

That's my thoughts Steve going over the loop current and no intensification? The models for the last 48+ keep hitting between the other side of NO to Panama B then the run in with 98l right behind If that was to really occur I think it might be the first to bug out if it comes to MS.

[Steve]

18z Icon about to slam into SFL...

Yeah, that's close. Decent system on the way there. Again, not that I'm buying the ICON's solution, but if you moved the systems maybe 4 or 5 degrees farther west and weakened the the systems a bit due to land interaction both with the big islands and the Yucatan, it would seem to make more sense. Here is 120 hours at 500m

[Steve]

ICON valid 120 hours. It may be a bit too far east. Props for leading the way with the system to begin with (along with the CMC at times). But I don't see a drop of 1mb crossing the loop current. Conditions shouldn't be that bad in the middle Gulf that it couldn't intensify more than it is showing. So I'm questioning the track and the intensity if it was to follow that track.
https://i.imgur.com/mItZQqd.png

I'm not following. The CMC showed a Mexico, slight Texas solution today.

I'm going back to the weekend and probably late last week where they were the two models showing 97L was even goinng to be anything. I think all that's in the 16 days thread on talkin' tropics. But that's what I was referring to - the fact that the CMC/ICON alliance were the pioneers. That's not a bet you take in most seasons - or at least you didn't in past years I guess.

[supercane4867]

Two storms are so close to each other on ICON that they would start doing Fujiwhara.

[Javlin]

Two storms are so close to each other on ICON that they would start doing Fujiwhara.

I don't know if that has ever occurred in the Atlantic? what's it like 600miles of separation and anything less they start to feel each other?

[Steve]

Two storms are so close to each other on ICON that they would start doing Fujiwhara.

Haha. With a little less steering, you could see it. When you run the animation at 500mb widened out, the high pressure ridge northeast of 98L looks like a beating heart. No way out to the east, so it would have to go north there or possibly a bit west of due north. Here's the link. It literally looks like a beating human heart.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 918&fh=120

[BobHarlem]

12Z GFS Parallel, dips into the 960s before landfall.

[Cpv17]

Seems like the 18z runs are following the TVCN and honing in on LA. They’ll probably be completely different at 0z lol

[Steve]

Damn BobH. That's pretty insane. Likely Category 2. I've rode out plenty of ones and had some near misses with 3's where we got mostly TS conditions. That would be a first for me if it was to verify. Meanwhile, O.G. GFS has nothing at 102 hours.

[Steve]

GFS at 114 has a shadow of a low in the BoC but initiates something on the EPAC side instead.

[Steve]

And GFS @ 144 with neither 97L or 98L. Someone needs to increase power to that model if it turns out wrong.

[Steve]

HWRF out to 66 hours at 1003mb just off Puerto Morelos and the resort area along Riviera Maya
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 97L_22.png

Meanwhile, HMON has an extremely raggedy circulation through 90mph.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1918&fh=90

^^edit to fix link

lol at all the continued disagreement between models with less than a week to potential US Impact. They diverge between nothing and Cat 2ish, Mexico and NWFL, faster and slower.

[sarcean]

Two storms are so close to each other on ICON that they would start doing Fujiwhara.

I don't know if that has ever occurred in the Atlantic? what's it like 600miles of separation and anything less they start to feel each other?

Another interesting event occurred in 1995 when four tropical waves formed in the Atlantic. The storms would later be named Humberto, Iris, Karen, and Luis. A satellite image of the 4 tropical storms shows each of the cyclones from left to right. Tropical storm Iris was heavily influenced by the formation of Humberto before it, and Karen after it. Tropical Storm Iris moved through the islands of the northeastern Caribbean during late August and produced locally heavy rains and associated flooding according to the NOAA National Data Center. Iris later absorbed Karen on September 3, 1995, but not before altering the paths of both Karen and Iris.

Hurricane Lisa was a storm that formed on September 16, 2004, as a tropical depression. The depression was located between Hurricane Karl to the west and another tropical wave to the southeast. Like a hurricane, Karl influenced Lisa, the quickly approaching tropical disturbance to the east moved in on Lisa and the two began to show a Fujiwhara Effect.

[stormlover2013]

Lol navy model smh

[supercane4867]

18z NAVGEM

[canetracker]

Seems like the 18z runs are following the TVCN and honing in on LA. They’ll probably be completely different at 0z lol

Right. The models seem a little wacky as of late, but the GFS Para scenario seems like it could be plausible with a one two punch anywhere on the Gulf Coast, if they follow close enough together.

[Steve]

gfs-p likes 97L better than 98L. The double punch would indicate MJO 2. It seems like we're headed there in a few days, but none of the MJO model forecasts really want to keep it there. I don't know if this will be a short burst and then a brief few days where maybe something else forms out in the Atlantic. CFS, Canadian and European all want to just rotate through back toward 4/5 or the circle. I guess it would reload from there if they are right. GFS had been showing it stuck in 8 and 1 for the last week but now it sort of wants to be in 1 and move back to the circle. The more defined graphics and blend at Dr. Ventrice's site at most of the specific height levels do want to go toward 2.

[stormlover2013]

Icon depression ala/miss border