ATL: LAURA - Models

[Blown Away]

00z EURO, big flop W, now a landfall in Louisiana in @8 days as a Hurricane...

[AtlanticWind]

00z EURO, big flop W, now a landfall in Louisiana in @8 days as a Hurricane...

It didnt look like a hurricane on tropical tidbits, do have access to higher resolution.

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles. Some of those southerly dips near PR indicates likely a stronger ridge:

[Blown Away]

At least the Euro is back on the left and GFS is on the right...

[Ubuntwo]

00z EURO, big flop W, now a landfall in Louisiana in @8 days as a Hurricane...

It didnt look like a hurricane on tropical tidbits, do have access to higher resolution.

1006mb low with decent gusts.

[Hurricane Mike]

So much for the out-to-sea EURO. The 00Z Euro has the system striking the Keys and then Louisiana as a hurricane in 7- 8 days. It also shows another Cape Verde hurricane plowing towards the Bahamas in that time as well.

[Hammy]

Model support looks like it's dropping for a stronger system on the latest batch of runs, save for the CMC. But that one's been right this year so this will be a good test.

[blp]

The key takeaway for me is the ridge is strong. We all know how unreliable intensity modeling is especially this far out. We will most likely have a storm that will impact landmasses in the Carribean and US because of the strong ridge.

[chaser1]

Idk about you guys, but i'm more concerned about the ridge than intensity.

And THAT should be the "big picture" focus at this pre-pubescent point in time.

[USTropics]

00z 500mb height anomalies at 144 hours for the ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/CMC models:

[stormlover2013]

00z EURO, big flop W, now a landfall in Louisiana in @8 days as a Hurricane...

That’s not a hurricane

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic.

It would be quite something if we couldn’t buy a major hurricane from this.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic.

It would be quite something if we couldn’t buy a major hurricane from this.

reminds me of when everything dropped irma for a day or two.

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic.

It would be quite something if we couldn’t buy a major hurricane from this.

reminds me of when everything dropped irma for a day or two.

Yeah I don't remember that. Either the Euro is right or it's wrong. We are heading into the last third of August so it would be pathetic if we couldn't buy a major hurricane fro this.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic.

It would be quite something if we couldn’t buy a major hurricane from this.

reminds me of when everything dropped irma for a day or two.

Yeah I don't remember that. Either the Euro is right or it's wrong. We are heading into the last third of August so it would be pathetic if we couldn't buy a major hurricane fro this.

i could easily see this system finding good conditions eventually and at least becoming a category 2. however, looking at the riding currently, lets hope not.

[TheStormExpert]

reminds me of when everything dropped irma for a day or two.

Yeah I don't remember that. Either the Euro is right or it's wrong. We are heading into the last third of August so it would be pathetic if we couldn't buy a major hurricane fro this.

i could easily see this system finding good conditions eventually and at least becoming a category 2. however, looking at the riding currently, lets hope not.

You'd think, it's going on late-August and there's still plenty of wind shear out there. Not to mention mid-level dry air seems to still be plentiful.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yeah I don't remember that. Either the Euro is right or it's wrong. We are heading into the last third of August so it would be pathetic if we couldn't buy a major hurricane fro this.

i could easily see this system finding good conditions eventually and at least becoming a category 2. however, looking at the riding currently, lets hope not.

You'd think, it's going on late-August and there's still plenty of wind shear out there. Not to mention mid-level dry air seems to still be plentiful.

https://i.imgur.com/S5l63fD.gif

https://i.imgur.com/gj1FzYo.gif

https://i.imgur.com/hSOUCn1.jpg

it's not any worse than any other active year though. dry air is average to below average, and wind shear has been quite low on average, especially in the carrib.

remember, in 2017 harvey got decapitated in late august, and the tutt broke down only days before irma got there in early september, clearing the way for her to become a hurricane that was still kept in check by dry stable air until just before it reached the islands.

the favorable conditions are coming, and that might be an understatement.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS doesn’t do much with 98L, kinda loses it in Hispaniola and 97L seems to steal the energy and ends up a TS/Hurricane into TX. Kind of a weird run.

[chris_fit]

Besides the CMC, Models looks much less intimidating overnight. Perhaps we got excited a little too quick?

[SouthFLTropics]

Waking up to big model changes overnight. Can’t say I’m surprised. We’ve seen this before where the models will drop something in the mid range only to bring it back later. As someone else pointed out, the thing to take from these overnight runs last night is the strength of the ridge.


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