WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Full W ring.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Nearing 20Cs but ADT lowers the estimate when it considers the eye large and it really loves cold convection
2020SEP03 180000 6.2 937.7 119.8 6.2 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.64 -74.70 EYE 17 IR 76.3 21.21 -135.70 ARCHER HIM-8 25.4
2020SEP03 182000 6.3 935.5 122.2 6.3 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.05 -74.79 EYE 24 IR 76.3 21.19 -136.00 ARCHER HIM-8 25.3
2020SEP03 190000 6.5 930.9 127.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.89 -76.16 EYE 27 IR 76.3 21.40 -135.66 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7
2020SEP03 193000 6.6 928.4 129.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.29 -75.42 EYE 28 IR 76.3 21.44 -135.80 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7
2020SEP03 200000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.80 -74.55 EYE 26 IR 76.3 21.54 -135.69 ARCHER HIM-8 25.8
2020SEP03 203000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.07 -73.48 EYE 31 IR 80.4 21.59 -135.57 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 210000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.7 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.20 -74.66 EYE/L 35 IR 80.4 21.55 -135.59 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 211000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.6 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.23 -73.09 EYE/L 34 IR 80.4 21.56 -135.49 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 215000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.69 -73.40 EYE/L 34 IR 80.4 21.60 -135.50 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 182000 6.3 935.5 122.2 6.3 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.05 -74.79 EYE 24 IR 76.3 21.19 -136.00 ARCHER HIM-8 25.3
2020SEP03 190000 6.5 930.9 127.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.89 -76.16 EYE 27 IR 76.3 21.40 -135.66 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7
2020SEP03 193000 6.6 928.4 129.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.29 -75.42 EYE 28 IR 76.3 21.44 -135.80 ARCHER HIM-8 25.7
2020SEP03 200000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.80 -74.55 EYE 26 IR 76.3 21.54 -135.69 ARCHER HIM-8 25.8
2020SEP03 203000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.7 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.07 -73.48 EYE 31 IR 80.4 21.59 -135.57 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 210000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.7 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.20 -74.66 EYE/L 35 IR 80.4 21.55 -135.59 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 211000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.6 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.23 -73.09 EYE/L 34 IR 80.4 21.56 -135.49 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
2020SEP03 215000 6.7 925.9 132.2 6.5 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 19.69 -73.40 EYE/L 34 IR 80.4 21.60 -135.50 ARCHER HIM-8 25.9
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
If Haishen could maintain that eye for the next 12 hours or more then I can't wait for convection dmax.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Similar to Genevieve, Haishen has had the bad luck of clearing its eye right at Dmin, meaning its CDO is getting warmed even more than it would have. The difference is that Haishen’s CDO is far more impressive and cooler than Genevieve’s ever was.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Ed_2001
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
11W HAISHEN 200904 0000 21.7N 135.4E WPAC 135 922
One step away from Category 5. WPAC finally showing its true color for the first time this year.
One step away from Category 5. WPAC finally showing its true color for the first time this year.
Last edited by Ed_2001 on Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind...
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Hmmm
TY 2010 (Haishen)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 4 September 2020
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 4 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°50' (21.8°)
E135°05' (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 440 km (240 NM)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 4 September 2020
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 4 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°50' (21.8°)
E135°05' (135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area NE 220 km (120 NM)
SW 165 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 500 km (270 NM)
SW 440 km (240 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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Cunxi Huang
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
What.
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 11W
Thursday 03sep20 Time: 2135 UTC
Latitude: 21.55 Longitude: 135.26
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 8 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 941 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 118 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 9mb +/- 10kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.07471
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 4.488
RMW: 32 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1008
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 03 Time (UTC): 1800
For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu
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06 SuTY SAOMAI | 09 TY LINFA | 10 TY FANAPI | 10 SuTY MEGI | 16 SuTY MERANTI | 19 SuTY LEKIMA | 24 C2 FRANCINE
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.
DO NOT use my posts for life and death decisions. For official information, please refer to products from your RSMC and national weather agency.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Fingers crossed the eye survives until Dmax so that extra bit of CDO cooling can get Haishen to Cat 5 status. We haven’t had one since Amphan in May.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
TPPN10 PGTW 040027
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
B. 04/0000Z
C. 21.70N
D. 135.10E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1934Z 21.28N 135.77E SSMS
MARTIN
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
B. 04/0000Z
C. 21.70N
D. 135.10E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/7.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1934Z 21.28N 135.77E SSMS
MARTIN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Although convection has warmed, eye remains extremely well defined. Personally this is a cat 5 already (145 to 155 knots) based on other similar systems.
Dvorak really lagging which is putting the estimates down.
Dvorak really lagging which is putting the estimates down.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
I’m comfortable with the 135 kt estimate the JTWC has given. It’s definitely a Super Typhoon, but it doesn’t seem like it’s quite worthy of Cat 5 status just yet. Haishen has to thicken that W ring.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Poleward outflow is almost non-existent. Haishen needs that to truly max out
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
mrbagyo wrote:Poleward outflow is almost non-existent. Haishen needs that to truly max out
https://i.imgur.com/u6TpYVd.gif
Does Haishen really need it? It seems to be ventilating very well; the eye is about to hit 20C according to the UW-CIMSS ADT page.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
aspen wrote:I’m comfortable with the 135 kt estimate the JTWC has given. It’s definitely a Super Typhoon, but it doesn’t seem like it’s quite worthy of Cat 5 status just yet. Haishen has to thicken that W ring.
Yeah I agree. They've done a nice job with this one so far. I bet it'll be 140 kts in the morning (US time)
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Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
aspen wrote:mrbagyo wrote:Poleward outflow is almost non-existent. Haishen needs that to truly max out
https://i.imgur.com/u6TpYVd.gif
Does Haishen really need it? It seems to be ventilating very well; the eye is about to hit 20C according to the UW-CIMSS ADT page.
two is better than one in most cases
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Cat 3 landfall 
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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