ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

In the immediate term...this looks like a candidate for PTC initiation with immediate TS warnings. It's organizing at a rate consistent with the calendar.

[Aric Dunn]

[BYG Jacob]

https://i.ibb.co/cFcBv9J/1.gif

I spy an LLC

[jlauderdal]

I don't think 96L is a TC yet, but it's getting there. Looks like a W-E elongated low-level circulation extending westward from that mesovortex north of Andros. It's possible the mesovortex acts to tighten up the low-level wind field and becomes associated with the dominant circulation. Only time will tell. Nonetheless, the improvement in organization today is very impressive.

its really done well and exceeded expectations at least for today...I dont see how they pull the trigger on a TD at 5...however, it really could happen at anytime..I'm going with 8 pm

[SFLcane]

New ship report just popped up .. right outside the deepest radar returns.

https://i.ibb.co/1JSPjkQ/Untitled.png

west winds?

[Frank P]

https://i.ibb.co/cFcBv9J/1.gif

Motion looks west.

[EquusStorm]

Almost looks like a general trend toward banding around that hot tower. This is definitely happening ahead of yesterday's schedule.

[cp79]

Concern with this is forward speed. HMON and hwrf seem to really crawl this after it gets off the Tampa Bay coast and drifts it NW towards panhandle area. Almost looks like Elena with the forward speed in that region.

Living in TB we don’t need anymore rain. We’ve been getting destroyed this week with rainfall. Nervous we’re gonna get a lot more.

[Aric Dunn]

New ship report just popped up .. right outside the deepest radar returns.

https://i.ibb.co/1JSPjkQ/Untitled.png

Still no sign of west winds

Plenty of radar and sat data to support it..

there are no surface obs to the south. so your going to be waiting severy years until someone decides to install some stations lol

[Jr0d]

https://i.ibb.co/cFcBv9J/1.gif

It might be the wobble effect, but based on this and radar, it looks like the 'center' might be moving WSW.

I don't think there is a closed off LLC to give it TD status, but based on the ship obs you found it what appears to be a quickly organizing system, I think PTC advisories are likely at 5pm.

20 minutes ago I thought otherwise. I am very glad you found the ship's report.

[NDG]

New ship report just popped up .. right outside the deepest radar returns.

https://i.ibb.co/1JSPjkQ/Untitled.png

west winds?

I'm sure there are west winds west of Andros Island, plenty of NW winds being reported over the Keys, is a closed circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.ibb.co/cFcBv9J/1.gif

It might be the wobble effect, but based on this and radar, it looks like the 'center' might be moving WSW.

I don't think there is a closed off LLC to give it TD status, but based on the ship obs you found it what appears to be a quickly organizing system, I think PTC advisories are likely at 5pm.

20 minutes ago I thought otherwise. I am very glad you found the ship's report.

During development when a Mesovort begins to deepen there is often small cyclonic loops do to rotational dynamics.

[SFLcane]

New ship report just popped up .. right outside the deepest radar returns.

https://i.ibb.co/1JSPjkQ/Untitled.png

Still no sign of west winds

Plenty of radar and sat data to support it..

there are no surface obs to the south. so your going to be waiting severy years until someone decides to install some stations lol

Doubt we get advisory with confirmation of west winds.

[Evil Jeremy]

Still no sign of west winds

Plenty of radar and sat data to support it..

there are no surface obs to the south. so your going to be waiting severy years until someone decides to install some stations lol

Doubt we get advisory with confirmation of west winds.

Unless they go PTC route...

I'm thinking we get an advisory at 5, with the current rate of organization.

[ClarCari]

Sorry but in this case you need proof that it is “highly unlikely” that 96L (I think you meant 96L) could become a major. Every conducive element needed for major status is present in front of it’s path. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee but I’d hardly call it “unlikely”.

I think it's worth noting that statistically, it's unlikely for any given invest to become a Major Hurricane. I'm not saying I agree with that assessment for 96L, just that it is statistically unlikely to get there.

EDIT: Generally speaking, when discussing the tropics, it's best to avoid talking about what's likely or unlikely, and focus on what's possible or not possible.

I agree! That’s why especially with out-of-nowhere systems I avoid terms like those. I just look at the conditions ahead and point out what’s 100% possible which ≠ 100% guaranteed by any means.

And IMO i’m avoiding model runs for sudden systems like these. All they give is a general area of where the system may go, but are not all that trustworthy when it comes to strength or speed of the system at this time.

[NDG]

Very clearly, is a closed circulation this afternoon with meso vort taking over.

[SFLcane]

Very clearly, is a closed circulation this afternoon with meso vort taking over.

https://i.imgur.com/F1FzkzW.gif

We’re is the rain to the north? I think it’s due to shear

[tailgater]

I want to be careful, but this system does seem to be organizing in a Similar manner to that K storm to a lesser degree and a bit farther west. Steering pattern is not really the same, I’m hoping it doesn’t start moving in wnw or sw direction.
I know we don’t have a TD just yet but wow the models are crappy this year, thankfully we have great forecasters and lots of data.
It really needs to stay away from Sw Louisiana.

[AxaltaRacing24]

this is looking more closed by the hour. coming together quickly

[gatorcane]

It’s organizing but I see an elongated trough oriented SSW to NNE. Still some shear out of the NW. A PTC should be coming at 5 or later this evening. Conditions look favorable in the EGOM but not as favorable at the moment: