ATL: ETA - Models

[Keldeo1997]

This feels like Dorian 2.0 except this time it could be bad for FL this time

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see what HWRF does. Very similar to HMON through hour 63

[Hurricaneman]

The HMON is showing weakening near Central America due to a ERC

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF is also treading North

[blp]

105hrs Hmon still offshore. This may stay offshore

[SFLcane]

105hrs Hmon still offshore. This may stay offshore

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like landfall (barely) at hour 111 on HMON. Cat 3/4

[SFLcane]

Hmon Back offshore...

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the HWRF may be setting up for a loop offshore.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

We’re is Gatorcane? Here is his Nogaps with an intensifying tc heading NE.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow.

[SFLcane]

[Spacecoast]

0z runs seems to have added a bit more uncertainty...

HMON shifts N a bit - but that little bit could make a big difference.
HWRF shift S a bt @ landfall, but basically same as previous run.
GFS Operational still the outlier with strong Northern movement missing Honduras coast
GEFS ensembles show a lot of dispersion with stalls, and various looping prior to CA. GEFS Mean shifts N a bit @landfall.
Euro is fait accompli after 96 hrs

[sma10]

Euro develops some leftover spin and moves northeast

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/mHSBqnK.png

The trajectory almost looks a bit reminiscent of Matthew’s (2016). The system briefly dips or “stair-steps” WSW before stalling near or along the coast of Central America, then turns NNE before bending back to the N and NNW, possibly before finally turning NE at the very end. The only difference is that Matthew’s track is farther west this time, putting the (lower?) Keys and peninsular Florida, including the west coast of the peninsula, solidly in play, to not mention coastal Central America and western Cuba. If this system were to follow Matthew’s trajectory, then we could see a powerful hurricane briefly strike Central America, then angle toward Cuba, strike both Havana and Key West as it heads back to the NNW, and then curve inland (NE or even ENE) over Tampa Bay and Greater Orlando. That would be disastrous. (As an aside, note that the strongest ensemble members around the time of landfall and/or closest approach to Central America are north of the mean. All members show a significant slowdown and/or stall beginning shortly before this time.)

[northjaxpro]

Maybe the people who were saying that this was 100% not going to Florida will take it more seriously now...

Well, it is a perfect time to chime in with my well known mantra here on this forum, but always worth reminding ÈVERYONE:

ÑEVER EVER SAY NEVER with anything in the tropics and all things weather, and everything in general life itself!!!

[GCANE]

00Z GFS takes it to a 950mb TC going into the Straits.
Havana could take a major hit.
Spins it up in about 24 hrs.

[kevin]

00z GFS, recurves and doesn't landfall in CA, instead landfalling as a major in Cuba with intensification until landfall. Lingers around Florida for a long time before landfalling near the end of the run. For a second I thought it was going to Louisiana at 240-280 hours and I was like '2020, don't you dare'.

[GCANE]

A major on the loose in the GoM.
Round and round it goes.
Where it ends up, nobody knows.

[GCANE]

According to GFS, going to be getting the big EPAC moisture feed once its in the Straits