ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Too bad they didn't make it further west towards the MLC along the northern coast.

https://i.imgur.com/AWQqkhC.png

thats becasue its inland .. you can see the MLC very clearly on RADAR.

if something else forms offshore remains to be seen.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

“ Well, that escalated quickly,”

Despite that, I'm seeing many posts saying that this is not going to amount to anything for Florida. While that may end up being correct, it is far too early to confidently say that. Even if the storm gets stronger than projected, it could slide further west under a stronger ridge. In fact, we have seen many times before where a stronger storm will pump up the ridge to the north. There's too many variables at play to make any confident call right now, as the NHC has indicated in the discussions. Land interaction, angle of attack on the FL coastline, timing and speed of the trough, strength of the ridge, strength of Isaias...all play factors. I would caution anyone who is downplaying this to pump the brakes.

[FireRat]

man, the weirdness of 2020 continues...
Dang storm finally begins getting its act together as it hits Hispaniola, imagine if doing so actually aids its development as crazy as this sounds. Hasn't looked this good on satellite, wth

Hope this thing weakens like Debby did in 2000 and doesn't bring impacts to FL and others down its path.

[stormhunter7]

I just don't think there is a well defined surface center yet. I think recon supports it being still south of the Island and the mid level center is racing away.... The surface center is elongated and stretched out from SW to NE...

[Weatherboy1]

If Isaias DOES relocate under the MLC and only grazes/skirts the northern coast of Hispanola I think intensity forecast is going to be too conservative ... potentially by a fair amount. I know there is forecasted shear ahead but it won’t be horrendous unless that trough really digs down S

[DestinHurricane]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

“ Well, that escalated quickly,”

Despite that, I'm seeing many posts saying that this is not going to amount to anything for Florida. While that may end up being correct, it is far too early to confidently say that. Even if the storm gets stronger than projected, it could slide further west under a stronger ridge. In fact, we have seen many times before where a stronger storm will pump up the ridge to the north. There's too many variables at play to make any confident call right now, as the NHC has indicated in the discussions. Land interaction, angle of attack on the FL coastline, timing and speed of the trough, strength of the ridge, strength of Isaias...all play factors. I would caution anyone who is downplaying this to pump the brakes.

Exactly. Plus the most reliable models haven't really trended to the right because of the strong ridging. Also 20 miles east or west makes all the difference at this angle.

Last year with Dorian the hurricane models (Hwrf, hmon) and some less reliable global models kept insisting that Dorian would keep going into S FL while the GFS/Euro correctly predicted that it would turn north. This time I think that the Euro/GFS again have a better grasp on the bigger picture including the trough/ridge situation.

[otowntiger]

Discussion highlights:

"Radar imagery from Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola"

"As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week.[/b] Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term."

"The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus."

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today."

So the two biggest takeaways I see are: 1.It looks to stay offshore (at least off of Florida's coast) and 2. Intensity could be less than previously thought - good news as I see it (at least for Florida anyway)

[Nuno]

Discussion highlights:

"Radar imagery from Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola"

"As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week.[/b] Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term."

"The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus."

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today."

So the two biggest takeaways I see are: 1.It looks to stay offshore (at least off of Florida's coast) and 2. Intensity could be less than previously thought - good news as I see it (at least for Florida anyway)

Yes, hurricane watches, always the sign of good news

[TheStormExpert]

Well, that escalated quickly

I said hurricane watches this morning. Not surprising at all because they have it at 70 mph nearing the FL coast.

Didn't you spend yesterday talking about how Florida could stop paying attention to this and enjoy a sunny weekend?

A Hurricane Watch just means Hurricane Conditions are possible within 36-48hrs. I believe? But just cause one is posted doesn’t mean we’ll actually get the full effects, especially if it takes a track just offshore or East of Florida. Take Dorian last year for example or even Matthew in 2016. We had Hurricane Watches/Warnings yet we only saw TS conditions at best due to being on the west (less intense) side of the system. And with the way this thing is shaping up especially if SW shear is present I doubt we see the worst of things. Just my input and opinion.

[jaxfladude]

So still too early to say what if any impacts for NE FLORIDA?

Edit Prayers for those impacted

Just do preps and watch carefully or stay on.here with is for the latest. We will see impacts here JaxDude. We just do not know the severity of it yet. We will know more the next 24 hours hopefully
.

Will do..and it's only about to flip to August not September good or bad....hopefully the least bad will come out of this TS/H? For ALL.

[DestinHurricane]

2. Intensity could be less than previously thought - good news as I see it (at least for Florida anyway)

I don't know about that. The intensity forecast has only gone up, not down. If anything it could be stronger than previously thought.

[CourierPR]

I didn't see what you are saying in that discussion.

So the two biggest takeaways I see are: 1.It looks to stay offshore (at least off of Florida's coast) and 2. Intensity could be less than previously thought - good news as I see it (at least for Florida anyway) [/quote]

[Evil Jeremy]

Discussion highlights:

"Radar imagery from Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola"

"As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week.[/b] Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term."

"The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus."

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today."

So the two biggest takeaways I see are: 1.It looks to stay offshore (at least off of Florida's coast) and 2. Intensity could be less than previously thought - good news as I see it (at least for Florida anyway)

Except NHC explicitly mentioning the possibility of Hurricane Watches for portions of SFL indicates the NHC thinks this could both move closer to FL than currently forecast, and be stronger on approach to SFL than currently forecast.

So you can read into this what you want to, but the NHC makes clear that this could be a greater threat to Florida than currently forecast.

That said, I highly doubt NHC will need to issue Hurricane watches for Florida. That would truly shock me.

[tropicwatch]

I have my popcorn ready and later my glass of wine.. while I watch the system morph while over land..

always entertaining.

I only start this early when I am fishing but it is with Beer

This thing is going to rake through the Bahamas. Luckily it looks like it will not be that strong.

[northjaxpro]

Hurricane watches for SFL!

“ Well, that escalated quickly,”

Despite that, I'm seeing many posts saying that this is not going to amount to anything for Florida. While that may end up being correct, it is far too early to confidently say that. Even if the storm gets stronger than projected, it could slide further west under a stronger ridge. In fact, we have seen many times before where a stronger storm will pump up the ridge to the north. There's too many variables at play to make any confident call right now, as the NHC has indicated in the discussions. Land interaction, angle of attack on the FL coastline, timing and speed of the trough, strength of the ridge, strength of Isaias...all play factors. I would caution anyone who is downplaying this to pump the brakes.

Excellent post! I could not have stated this any better!!

[Evil Jeremy]

I said hurricane watches this morning. Not surprising at all because they have it at 70 mph nearing the FL coast.

Didn't you spend yesterday talking about how Florida could stop paying attention to this and enjoy a sunny weekend?

A Hurricane Watch just means Hurricane Conditions are possible within 36-48hrs. I believe? But just cause one is posted doesn’t mean we’ll actually get the full effects, especially if it takes a track just offshore or East of Florida. Take Dorian last year for example or even Matthew in 2016. We had Hurricane Watches/Warnings yet we only saw TS conditions at best due to being on the west (less intense) side of the system. And with the way this thing is shaping up especially if SW shear is present I doubt we see the worst of things. Just my input and opinion.

I agree, Hurricane Watches are unlikely. I'm just pointing out how someone who spent yesterday running with a "Florida's all clear" narrative is now trying to justify Hurricane Watches for Florida.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Discussion highlights:

"Radar imagery from Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola"

"As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week.[/b] Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term."

"The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus."

"Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today."

So the two biggest takeaways I see are: 1.It looks to stay offshore (at least off of Florida's coast) and 2. Intensity could be less than previously thought - good news as I see it (at least for Florida anyway)

What you should've highlighted:

Due to Isaias interacting with
Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts.

[GCANE]

Haven't seen any really solid west winds from Recon yet.

[TheStormExpert]

If Isaias DOES relocate under the MLC and only grazes/skirts the northern coast of Hispanola I think intensity forecast is going to be too conservative ... potentially by a fair amount. I know there is forecasted shear ahead but it won’t be horrendous unless that trough really digs down S

Well that’s what NDG said yesterday morning I believe but we shall see.

[lhpfish]

Lots of unknowns. If we look at Hanna last week, things can change very quickly.

A wobble west as it threads up between andros/grandbahma is all it takes to possibly bring conditions on shore.

Hard to say without a defined center, hopefully 5pm/11 pm will bring greater insight as the system continues to get its act together.

I live in an old neighborhood in Pompano and lost power for a week due to Irma. Stocked up and ready to go, decided on Tuesday to get the hurricane gear in order. Just need to run out for propane at lunch.