ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Was not here yesterday, spent the whole day buying a car.
Compared the experience to having a coloscopy without anesthesia.
Anyway, last time I checked it was falling apart approaching the islands.
This morning a strong tropical storm tracking over us Monday.
That will teach me to stay away.

[otowntiger]

[

Except NHC explicitly mentioning the possibility of Hurricane Watches for portions of SFL indicates the NHC thinks this could both move closer to FL than currently forecast, and be stronger on approach to SFL than currently forecast.

So you can read into this what you want to, but the NHC makes clear that this could be a greater threat to Florida than currently forecast.

That said, I highly doubt NHC will need to issue Hurricane watches for Florida. That would truly shock me.

That's fair. I guess its a matter of seeing the glass 'half empty' or 'half full' at this point.

[aspen]

Convection and FL winds are quite strong N/NE of Hispaniola, suggesting that conditions are prime for a center relocation. All it’ll take is the southern center to run over the island and fall apart.

[DestinHurricane]

Didn't you spend yesterday talking about how Florida could stop paying attention to this and enjoy a sunny weekend?

A Hurricane Watch just means Hurricane Conditions are possible within 36-48hrs. I believe? But just cause one is posted doesn’t mean we’ll actually get the full effects, especially if it takes a track just offshore or East of Florida. Take Dorian last year for example or even Matthew in 2016. We had Hurricane Watches/Warnings yet we only saw TS conditions at best due to being on the west (less intense) side of the system. And with the way this thing is shaping up especially if SW shear is present I doubt we see the worst of things. Just my input and opinion.

I agree, Hurricane Watches are unlikely. I'm just pointing out how someone who spent yesterday running with a "Florida's all clear" narrative is now trying to justify Hurricane Watches for Florida.

I'm just saying the NHC's track and intensity suggests hurricane watches might be needed. Their track has the center 20 miles from Palm Beach and some people are acting like they have it 200 miles from Palm Beach.

[TheStormExpert]

Didn't you spend yesterday talking about how Florida could stop paying attention to this and enjoy a sunny weekend?

A Hurricane Watch just means Hurricane Conditions are possible within 36-48hrs. I believe? But just cause one is posted doesn’t mean we’ll actually get the full effects, especially if it takes a track just offshore or East of Florida. Take Dorian last year for example or even Matthew in 2016. We had Hurricane Watches/Warnings yet we only saw TS conditions at best due to being on the west (less intense) side of the system. And with the way this thing is shaping up especially if SW shear is present I doubt we see the worst of things. Just my input and opinion.

I agree, Hurricane Watches are unlikely. I'm just pointing out how someone who spent yesterday running with a "Florida's all clear" narrative is now trying to justify Hurricane Watches for Florida.

I’m not saying they’re unlikely especially if it becomes a hurricane and passes between Grand Bahama Island and the East Coast of Florida but I think the worst weather will be over places like Grand Bahama Island, still wouldn’t let your guard down!

[Hurricaneman]

Haven't seen any really solid west winds from Recon yet.

Probably due to possible relocation, when that happens it stretches the vorticity to where it likely would relocate meaning they won’t find those west winds until probably sometime this afternoon

[psyclone]

in 24 hours the forecast has gone from...Just west of the FL west coast to just east of the FL east coast. That's a trend and it's a big one. typically conditions improve very quickly on the west side of a northward moving storm. there's time for additional good..or bad shifts but there's no denying that the last hours have featured a massively beneficial development for the peninsula. Imagine if we add even just a fraction of the east shifts we have seen in the past 24 hours in the next 24. Here locally my ts wind probs have gone from 30% to 5% during this time frame. I am not making any sort of a forecast and my recent prognostications have been laugh out loud lousy...I'm just observing longer term trends which is exceedingly important for perspective.

[Aric Dunn]

I have my popcorn ready and later my glass of wine.. while I watch the system morph while over land..

always entertaining.

I only start this early when I am fishing but it is with Beer

This thing is going to rake through the Bahamas. Luckily it looks like it will not be that strong.

yeah i will wait till about 4pm for my wine. lol


I am going with it re organizing somewhere off the NE tip of Cuba..

thats where it will regain the Southerly inflow to close the circ off fully again.

otherwise it would need to reform rather far off the north coast of Hispaniola to have enough southerly inflow. The high terrain will halt that quad.


just wait for the convection to collapse later from the southerly inflow being cut off..

the "poof" statements will start flying.. lol

[SouthFLTropics]

The key marker for determining how much Florida impact there will be will be Andros Island. If the storm slides between Andros and Grand Bahama then it has a much greater possibility to turn and stay offshore. If it goes over or South of Andros, it is hard to miss some kind of impact on the coast on an approaching storm from the Southeast. There are exceptions to that of course, but it is a good rule of thumb. Andros is the literal fork in the road so to speak.

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m not saying they’re unlikely especially if it becomes a hurricane and passes between Grand Bahama Island and the East Coast of Florida but I think the worst weather will be over places like Grand Bahama Island, still wouldn’t let your guard down!

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a TS Watch at 5pm, then a TS Warning with a Hurricane Watch at 11pm (if it's still considered necessary in 12 hours).

I have a hard time believing NHC will directly jump to Hurricane Watch at 5pm, considering Isaias is very unlikely to be fully reorganized north of Hispaniola by then. Until that new center is solidified, it's difficult to predict what Florida can expect.

I think TS Watches at 5pm are a given though.

[TheStormExpert]

A Hurricane Watch just means Hurricane Conditions are possible within 36-48hrs. I believe? But just cause one is posted doesn’t mean we’ll actually get the full effects, especially if it takes a track just offshore or East of Florida. Take Dorian last year for example or even Matthew in 2016. We had Hurricane Watches/Warnings yet we only saw TS conditions at best due to being on the west (less intense) side of the system. And with the way this thing is shaping up especially if SW shear is present I doubt we see the worst of things. Just my input and opinion.

I agree, Hurricane Watches are unlikely. I'm just pointing out how someone who spent yesterday running with a "Florida's all clear" narrative is now trying to justify Hurricane Watches for Florida.

I'm just saying the NHC's track and intensity suggests hurricane watches might be needed. Their track has the center 20 miles from Palm Beach and some people are acting like they have it 200 miles from Palm Beach.

Here’s the probability of seeing TS force winds. The plume shows the worst staying offshore and over towards Grand Bahama Island right now. Not saying that couldn’t change but the west side is the better side to be on as we saw with Matthew in 2016 and Dorian just last year.

[ColdMiser123]

I see rising pressures, weak east wind, and no wind shift south of Hispaniola. No evidence that the center is anywhere near the 11 am coordinates at this point.

[GCANE]

Surface winds are likely paralleling the NE DR coast now causing a drop in convergence.
Appears the deep convection is not so deep any more as a result.

[TheStormExpert]

The key marker for determining how much Florida impact there will be will be Andros Island. If the storm slides between Andros and Grand Bahama then it has a much greater possibility to turn and stay offshore. If it goes over or South of Andros, it is hard to miss some kind of impact on the coast on an approaching storm from the Southeast. There are exceptions to that of course, but it is a good rule of thumb. Andros is the literal fork in the road so to speak.

Yep! Remember that with Matthew and how he went east in between Andros Island and Nassau and just clipped NW Grand Bahama Island.

[Evil Jeremy]

Here’s the probability of seeing TS force winds. The plume shows the worst staying offshore and over towards Grand Bahama Island right now. Not saying that couldn’t change but the west side is the better side to be on as we saw with Matthew in 2016 and Dorian just last year.

Absolutely true. The west side is the place to be. A difference of a couple dozen miles though makes a big difference. TS Watches are the way to go, toss on a Hurricane Watch when the TS Warnings are issued if it's still considered a possibility in 12-18 hours.

[DestinHurricane]

I wouldn't put that much emphasis on a very exact track. If it shifts just a hair to the left then S FL is in the crosshairs. It could also go the other way and make us have sunny skies. Still plenty of time for more shifting.

[AutoPenalti]

I agree, Hurricane Watches are unlikely. I'm just pointing out how someone who spent yesterday running with a "Florida's all clear" narrative is now trying to justify Hurricane Watches for Florida.

I'm just saying the NHC's track and intensity suggests hurricane watches might be needed. Their track has the center 20 miles from Palm Beach and some people are acting like they have it 200 miles from Palm Beach.

Here’s the probability of seeing TS force winds. The plume shows the worst staying offshore and over towards Grand Bahama Island right now. Not saying that couldn’t change but the west side is the better side to be on as we saw with Matthew in 2016 and Dorian just last year.

https://i.ibb.co/tq1vyBS/2-E6122-F2-A61-E-4-CE2-86-F9-82593-FCEC39-C.png

The wind-field seems a lot larger than what that graph is depicting.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288858827207716864

[Aric Dunn]

Surface winds are likely paralleling the NE DR coast now causing a drop in convergence.
Appears the deep convection is not so deep any more as a result.

Yahtzee !

[Aric Dunn]

we also desperately need G-IV data to get and idea of the ridging to the north..

even a slight increase in heights and all the models are back over florida.