ATL: LAURA - Models

[Ivanhater]

12z HWRF... @48 hrs... Laura a little SW and Marco @2-3 degrees E and stronger... Maybe E Marco pushes Laura more S & W...

So far, the models that are moving east on Marco have come east on Laura as well

Why do you think that is?

It weakens/delays the ridge from pushing Laura too far west

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF starts bombing out from 63 to 72hrs

[Highteeld]

[supercane4867]

Explosive intensification on 12z HWRF. Perhaps one of the fastest on record for GOM.

[SconnieCane]

HWRF still doing HWRF things...I have a hard time buying that if it tracks the length over the GA as the current consensus seems to be. It has to reform north of PR.

Noteworthy that HWRF is quite subdued with the evolution of Marco which has looked rather impressive this morning (actually has a consolidated, stacked center which Laura does not). Proof it doesn't bomb out every system with reckless abandon regardless of conditions.

[cp79]

I’ll never forget when Katrina got in that territory in the Gulf and just exploded with HP over it. Not sure this will be the same, Especially if it tracks over the mountains for more than 24 hours, but who knows.

[TheStormExpert]

Since most of the mountains are over inland Dominican Republic and Haiti and Eastern Cuba it will need to steer clear of that if Laura wants to have a better shot at being more intense. But as we saw with Isaias since it’s not we’ll defined and strong already it shouldn’t get too disrupted by the mountainous terrain.

[eastcoastFL]

[PTPatrick]

Feel like finally hwrf and gfs are going to convene on southeastern/central LA

[crimi481]

Will the models keep trending east with next runs?

[Frank P]

Feel like finally hwrf and gfs are going to convene on southeastern/central LA

HWRF looks like it’s heading towards the mouth of the river or a tad west of it... let’s see if it play out!

[Ivanhater]

Yep, both storms look to be focused on the north central gulf coast after these wild model swings today. Yesterday, it looked like both were going to Texas

[Frank P]

Oh my, not looking good for SELA on this run... no sir, no thank you... got to give it to the HWRF as it’s been very consistent in its intensity and general location The past several all it all... might be a complete bust Who knows, but gotta give it credit for that!

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is basically Katrina 2.0. Right on time with the 15th anniversary.

[shiny-pebble]

Intensifying up until landfall it seems
939

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[bella_may]

Eerily similar to Katrina

[Frank P]

HMON going to lower TX coast, heading for the TX MEX line

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah that would pile water up into ponchetrain just like Katrina right? I hope those levies hold this time if that comes to fruition.

[SoupBone]

Yep, both storms look to be focused on the north central gulf coast after these wild model swings today. Yesterday, it looked like both were going to Texas

Yeah so then what happens on tonight's runs? Windshield wiper, or are we too close to landfall for that? I'm not convinced the swings are done.

[Frank P]

Eerily similar to Katrina

Yeah but no where near the size! And hopefully it doesn’t go thru any ERCs during it journey across the GOM!