ATL: LAURA - Models

[KimmieLa]

Euro similar track as HWRF but waaay faster and weaker

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020082212/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_5.png

If the core is not significantly disrupted by land I have a hard time seeing how this stays below hurricane strength. Conditions look ripe in the gulf, even if it does move that fast. Probably wouldn’t get to cat 4 though.

Namely wind shear and dry air intrusion. It can happen. It is forecasted. Time will tell. I live in Louisiana, and we are prepped and ready to leave if we have to. Decision on what to do will be made tomorrow afternoon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Euro similar track as HWRF but waaay faster and weaker

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020082212/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_5.png

If the core is not significantly disrupted by land I have a hard time seeing how this stays below hurricane strength. Conditions look ripe in the gulf, even if it does move that fast. Probably wouldn’t get to cat 4 though.

Namely wind shear and dry air intrusion. It can happen. It is forecasted. Time will tell. I live in Louisiana, and we are prepped and ready to leave if we have to. Decision on what to do will be made tomorrow afternoon.

Not seeing a lot of shear or dry air forecast in the GOM at that time. In fact there have been a few depictions over the last 24 hours that show a near perfect environment. The question is whether or not it will be able to capitalize on it, based on its speed and what state it will be in after any land interaction.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Nederlander]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/s6H18Xj/Eg-DVM3-JXk-AEy-Pel.png [/url]

Stronger EPS ensembles with a similar path to Ike

[bella_may]

NHC shifted East to SELA landfall

[captainbarbossa19]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/s6H18Xj/Eg-DVM3-JXk-AEy-Pel.png [/url]

Stronger EPS ensembles with a similar path to Ike

Or 1900 Galveston Hurricane. It looks like almost all the stronger members take this towards Texas. Almost all the weaker members are further east.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON hour 54 it has emerged off Cuba and in the GOM. Let's see what it does with it.

[captainbarbossa19]

18z ICON hour 54 it has emerged off Cuba and in the GOM. Let's see what it does with it.
https://i.imgur.com/aIeIsEo.png

It's slightly further west compared to the 12z run.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON hour 72 + trend:

[Blown Away]

Does the 5pm NHC position bust the HWRF?

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON hour 87:

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON hour 87-96:

Beeline towards central Texas?

[stormlover2013]

Icon upper texas coast cat 2 for Laura, showed Marco last night central la

[Kingarabian]

Icon upper texas coast cat 2 for Laura, showed Marco last night central la

Looks like the models are bouncing east and west with each run.

[bella_may]

Does the 5pm NHC position bust the HWRF?

Laura seems to be following the HWRF pretty close right now.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Does the 5pm NHC position bust the HWRF?

No, watch Levi's video on the situation with Laura's "LLC". The NHC position is just an average as there's no true center yet, just an elongated area of low pressure with multiple vorticties rotating around it. HWRF has a very good handle on the situation right now, IMO.*

*That's not to say I'm expecting its long term solution to be correct.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah close to the TX/LA border landfall on the 18z ICON:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 6 + trend:

[Kazmit]

GFS on board with skimming the north Hispaniola coast.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 00-24: