ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2181 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:08 pm

tolakram wrote:
GCANE wrote:Last eye drop was 63% RH at 700mb
Prev drop, 4+ hrs ago had 68% RH.
Low chance an EWRC is upcoming.

Towers overshooting the CDO with strong lighting.
4000 CAPE air pouring into the core in the feeder band.

Pinhole


https://i.imgur.com/qCKX0LS.png

https://i.imgur.com/XhIncjv.png


The satellite appearance has degraded, any idea what the issue is?


In what terms? Cloud top temperature?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2182 Postby Stormgodess » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:08 pm

xironman wrote:Looks like the center moved about three miles since the last pass.



The forecast I just saw from a local New Orleans Meteorologist has her basically at a stand still at landfall, just pounding Miss. and Alabama for hours!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2183 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:09 pm

I think 100 mph is a decent bet. I'd like to see lower pressures before upping the winds again, though.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2184 Postby Cerlin » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:09 pm

If it can get that structural change completed quickly enough and an eyewall more clearly developed, I see no reason why, especially given the favorable conditions, Sally won't intensify overnight.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2185 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:09 pm

One hour ago
Image
Now
Image
Dry slot filling in on radar, some degradation of inner core but should be able to reorganize later.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2186 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:10 pm

A tower near that pinhole eye would do wonders for the storm.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2187 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:13 pm

Hot towers firing in area of drier air/warmer tops
Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2188 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:16 pm

Image

Pinhole might be trying to come back
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2189 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:19 pm

cfisher wrote:A tower near that pinhole eye would do wonders for the storm.

Right on cue..
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2190 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:24 pm

Northern eyewall is getting a lot more intense on radar.
Last edited by shiny-pebble on Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2191 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:24 pm

I think Sally might’ve temporarily weakened a bit (maybe down to a high end Cat 2 instead of a low end Cat 2) as it tries to sort out its core and dry air, but once that’s done, it theoretically will rebound.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2192 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:28 pm

aspen wrote:I think Sally might’ve temporarily weakened a bit (maybe down to a high end Cat 2 instead of a low end Cat 2) as it tries to sort out its core and dry air, but once that’s done, it theoretically will rebound.


100% agree! It definitely doesn’t look any stronger than earlier, that’s for sure
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2193 Postby Keldeo1997 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:28 pm

Image

Recon still has a Pinhole open to the South. Its actually grown in size up to 6nm now
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2194 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:28 pm

GCANE wrote:
tolakram wrote:
GCANE wrote:Last eye drop was 63% RH at 700mb
Prev drop, 4+ hrs ago had 68% RH.
Low chance an EWRC is upcoming.

Towers overshooting the CDO with strong lighting.
4000 CAPE air pouring into the core in the feeder band.

Pinhole


https://i.imgur.com/qCKX0LS.png

https://i.imgur.com/XhIncjv.png


The satellite appearance has degraded, any idea what the issue is?


In what terms? Cloud top temperature?


Just about everything. IR degraded, visible degraded, but pressure seems to be holding near 987mb for now.





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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2195 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:30 pm

tolakram wrote:
GCANE wrote:
tolakram wrote:
The satellite appearance has degraded, any idea what the issue is?


In what terms? Cloud top temperature?


Just about everything. IR degraded, visible degraded, but pressure seems to be holding near 987mb for now.

https://imgur.com/VeaqrnF

https://imgur.com/SZVltUV

https://imgur.com/R9HZbA2

it seems like this is due to ongoing structural changes that some of the hurricane models have showed. at least some strengthening should resume later tonight.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2196 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:30 pm

It's about to pop off if this tower can rotate upshear.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2197 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:30 pm

tolakram wrote:
GCANE wrote:
tolakram wrote:
The satellite appearance has degraded, any idea what the issue is?


In what terms? Cloud top temperature?


Just about everything. IR degraded, visible degraded, but pressure seems to be holding near 987mb for now.

https://imgur.com/VeaqrnF

https://imgur.com/SZVltUV

https://imgur.com/R9HZbA2


Huh, IR looks improved to me tbh. Not a blob anymore, classic coma shape.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2198 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:31 pm

toad strangler wrote:Crazy work all day, WOW Sally looks like she could possibly landfall in AL or even the FL panhandle. What the hell happened today :lol:


Center reformation and slow down. The longer she takes to approach mouth of Miss River, the greater the odds for complete collapse of the steering currents and possible continuing eastward shifts. Very difficult short term forecast.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2199 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:35 pm

Big boy just fired off in the sw quadrant
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#2200 Postby TJRE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:37 pm



keep your eyes on her ----VIS LOOP---
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

possible gravity wave brewing

dot marks the spot
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