ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Obviously coming together on radar.
Very strong rotation.

[GCANE]

TRIOPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
Posted

[GCANE]

Latent heating of the upper troposphere from 2 days of heavy convection has primed the area for hot towers to form.
Two are shown here in the Bahamas.

[GCANE]

[northjaxpro]

Is Recon flying out this morning? I am only seeing yesterday's schedule, which was cancelled .

[GCANE]

759
ABNT20 KNHC 160616
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
220 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of
Florida.

A broad area of low pressure located near the southeast coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty
winds from portions of southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Gradual
development is still expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today while it
passes the northwestern Bahamas and moves north-northeastward over
the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early
next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward
over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of southeastern
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east
coast and in the Bahamas, where Gale Warnings are currently in
effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also
possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and
early next week. See products from your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this
morning. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT Saturday morning, or earlier if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[GCANE]

Is Recon flying out this morning? I am only seeing yesterday's schedule, which was cancelled .

Already in the air

[northjaxpro]

Thanks GCANE. I was thinking Recon had to be going.out this morning with the latest developments.

[HurricaneIrma]

Is Recon flying out this morning? I am only seeing yesterday's schedule, which was cancelled .

Already in the air

I think it will be Arthur soon

[GCANE]

Is Recon flying out this morning? I am only seeing yesterday's schedule, which was cancelled .

Already in the air

I think it will be Arthur soon

Its well cutoff from the dryline / warm front. Much more tropical.

[jlauderdal]

Is Recon flying out this morning? I am only seeing yesterday's schedule, which was cancelled .

Already in the air

I think it will be Arthur soon

The fort lauderdale mayor was on tv yesterday talking covid and they asked him about hurricane season and he called it TS Arthur...doesn't give you that warm fuzzy feeling when govt officials are so far off base.

[GCANE]

Radar showing a big pickup in wind speeds.

[northjaxpro]

Already in the air

I think it will be Arthur soon

Its well cutoff from the dryline / warm front. Much more tropical.

Well, looking at how those towers are firing around the COC this hour, it sure does look more tropical to me in nature now. We will know for sure very shortly when Recon reports in. I think it gets named Arthur this afternoon, possibly later this morning, depending upon what Recon finds out.

[GCANE]

Recon over Big Bend at 26K ft.
Should be there within the hour.

[GCANE]

Nice cirrus canopy from the towers has set in.
Now, a couple overshooting tops.
Developing quickly, good chance its a TD by the time recon gets there.

[HurricaneIrma]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... 0R&loop=no

[jlauderdal]

Nice cirrus canopy from the towers has set in.
Now, a couple overshooting tops.
Developing quickly, good chance its a TD by the time recon gets there.


https://i.imgur.com/NGHkSVZ.png

We could run our own recon mission out there today on a boat...its not far from where dorian setup for a few days

[northjaxpro]

This cyclone is getting its act together quite nice right now. I have not changed my stance from yesterday. I think with the shift a bit west with the CoC will enable this cyclone to traverse right over the Gulf Stream current the next couple of days. It already is imo feeding on it now. I think this cyclone can make a run at Cat 1 cane by Monday.

[GCANE]

The blob NE of Abaco looks good too.
Interesting to see what they find.

[GCANE]

The overshooting tops are consolidating nicely with lightning beginning to fire.