ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Craters]

Same thing was shown with harvey by the NAM and guess what rapid intensification took place. Who knows this is a tricky system!! I just want a lot of rain

Careful what you wish for, Jaguars...

[Steve]

Off topic but- I have a flight out of IAH 10am Saturday. If this thing makes TS strength and hits between Corpus and Matty, You think I will make it out?

That's a good question. If you were flying out of Corpus Christi, I'd say you're probably out of luck. But Houston depends on how strong it gets. If it becomes like a 60mph TS, I'd say chances of a delay are pretty strong. If it stays below 50, it's anyone's guess.

[NDG]

So far recon is finding pressure around 1008-1009mb, hasn't gone through the CoC yet.

[Stormcenter]

So what is spinning SSE of Mobile?

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[wxman57]

Off topic but- I have a flight out of IAH 10am Saturday. If this thing makes TS strength and hits between Corpus and Matty, You think I will make it out?

There may be some heavy thunderstorms across the Houston area Saturday morning. That could delay your inbound plane and thus your departing flight. Plan on some delays.

[jaguars_22]

stormcenter thats what i want to know maybe there are 2 low pressure centers...and that could be why no strengthening is forecasted

[wxman57]

Obs indicate a broad, weak low. Too disorganized to be classified as a TD. Plane is over the center now. Hard to find it on visible imagery. It'll be a TD tomorrow, possibly a TS tomorrow afternoon/evening.

[Craters]

all nighters.. come on now. this is the funnest part lol

...Said Aric, who couldn't remember the difference between a hyphen and a noun at a mere 12:30 AM last year.

it does not have to be last year or last night.. I cant remember what any puncuation is used for anymore lol

To be fair, it was at a mere 12:30 AM after two preceding days of all-nighters, probably...

[GCANE]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

GCANE --

A question showing my ignorance, here -- do you have any idea how they get CAPE data for locations like that, out in the middle of nowhere?

Thanks...

It comes from models which would then be an estimate.
Exactly what obs they use and the differential equations I am not sure.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

On satellite the lower levels look good, just no convection near the center, i think tonight it kicks off. A strong burst over the CoC and it will start the chain reaction. Glad it didnt start getting its act together. Dont want a monster approaching the coast.

[Steve]

On satellite the lower levels look good, just no convection near the center, i think tonight it kicks off. A strong burst over the CoC and it will start the chain reaction. Glad it didnt start getting its act together. Dont want a monster approaching the coast.

It's already been said too many times in early summer, but look at the upper atmosphere. GL you don't want to see that in August or September with a hurricane. It's still too early, but that's a pretty monsterous setup, like 8 out of 10 bad.

[jaguars_22]

Anyone hear about recon? Havent had any updates...

[wxman57]

Anyone hear about recon? Havent had any updates...

That's because recon isn't finding anything but 10-15 kt winds around a weak, poorly-defined center. No TD today. It appears to be less organized this afternoon than it was this morning. Tomorrow...

Here's the link to recon:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely getting there.

[GCANE]

Recon reporting light west winds.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone hear about recon? Havent had any updates...

Just waiting for them to fly through the center instead of doing circles around it. wind field is closed enough for upgrade.

meaning we have seen systems with less of a defined center and they were upgraded.

they have not sampled any of the stronger winds to the NE, E, and SE.

[Cpv17]

Anyone hear about recon? Havent had any updates...

You need to be paying attention to this one closely there in Victoria.

[jaguars_22]

I am definately watching those names with a H can sneak up on people...

[Aric Dunn]

Nice little burst going off right over the center while recon is out there. will probably help tighten it up before they leave.

[HurricaneRyan]

Miss Hanna Montana is waiting for to make her grand entrance.