WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[aspen]

Now officially forecasting a peak of 140 kt.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah good luck properly estimating this given how quickly it intensified.

[ejeraldmc]

Good morning, Goni.

[mrbagyo]

Current compact structure looks quite similar to Typhoon Chebi of 06 ( track also looks similar).
Compact storms are prone to huge fluctuation of intensity so we shouldn't be surprised if Goni undergoes explosive deepening like Chebi (57 mb drop in 6 hrs)

And it did just that.

[aspen]

Good morning, Goni.

https://i.imgur.com/l2gStbz.png

Those “spikes”/“waves” in the CDO indicate that this is not a high end TC (not >130 kt). Something in the Super Typhoon/Cat 5 range would have a smooth CDO. 120 kt is a pretty good estimate.

[Homie J]

Good morning, Goni.

https://i.imgur.com/l2gStbz.png

Those “spikes”/“waves” in the CDO indicate that this is not a high end TC (not >130 kt). Something in the Super Typhoon/Cat 5 range would have a smooth CDO. 120 kt is a pretty good estimate.

Why would those waves in the CDO indicate that its not a high end TC?

[Hayabusa]

12Z track

[aspen]

Good morning, Goni.

https://i.imgur.com/l2gStbz.png

Those “spikes”/“waves” in the CDO indicate that this is not a high end TC (not >130 kt). Something in the Super Typhoon/Cat 5 range would have a smooth CDO. 120 kt is a pretty good estimate.

Why would those waves in the CDO indicate that its not a high end TC?

Usually a mature TC has a “smoother” CDO. For example, these spikes are rarely seen in 140-160 kt Cat 5s.

I actually don’t know why the “spikes” exist, but I’ve seen enough TCs to know what intensities they correlate with. I think the most intense cyclone with the spikes was 140 kt Willa in 2018.

[Hayabusa]

JTWC says it's ERI'ing

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR
008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 724 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH A 5 NM EYE THAT HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 5 NM EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 120 KNOTS, ALIGNED WITH
THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT 22W WAS STRONGER (125 KNOTS)
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BASED ON THE STRUCTURE DISPLAYED IN A 291645
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AND AN UNOFFICIAL DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 6.5
FROM PGTW DURING THAT TIME. TY 22W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LARGE, DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
TY GONI CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM (29-30 DEG
CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED AS IT TAPS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTER LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST, BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN ONTO A WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 THE SYSTEM RESUMES A WEST BECOMING
SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK, WITH LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON
EXPECTED AROUND TAU 68 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. TY 22W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER VERY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW (5 TO 10
KNOTS) VWS, PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS AT TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 48, DECREASING MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 95 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ON LUZON
AROUND TAU 68. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS ALL MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY
PACKED THROUGH TAU 48 (48NM SPREAD), WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
THAT IS TAKING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, RESULTING IN A 96NM
SPREAD AT TAU 48. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, BUT IS NOT FORECASTING THE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO PERSIST. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ABOVE THE
MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE SHIPS SOLUTIONS
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS THE SYSTEM IS VERY COMPACT AND INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING IT WELL.//
NNNN

[aspen]

If Goni keeps this ERI phase up, 140 kt is gonna be really conservative. It’ll easily be a 130-135 kt Super Typhoon once eye temps become positive.

[ElectricStorm]

JTWC has it peaking at 140kts in 24 hours... At this rate it could get pretty close to that by the next advisory...

[aspen]

Goni now holds the title of the greatest 24hr RI phase of the year, with winds increasing by +90 mph — a 50 mph tropical storm to a 140 mph Category 4 typhoon in just a day. It surpassed Delta and Amphan, both of which intensified by +80 mph in 24 hours. Goni is also tied with Amphan for 2020’s greatest 18hr RI (+75 mph). Absolutely insane.

[Hayabusa]

Goni now holds the title of the greatest 24hr RI phase of the year, with winds increasing by +90 mph — a 50 mph tropical storm to a 140 mph Category 4 typhoon in just a day. It surpassed Delta and Amphan, both of which intensified by +80 mph in 24 hours. Goni is also tied with Amphan for 2020’s greatest 18hr RI (+75 mph). Absolutely insane.

That's small systems for you I would've been more amazed if Goni did that but at an average/larger size

[euro6208]

Wow 120 knots good morning!

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 292115

A. TYPHOON 22W (GONI)

B. 29/2040Z

C. 16.29N

D. 133.07E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.5. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.5. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BKN DUE
TO RI.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[aspen]

18z HWRF bottoms out at 918 mbar in 24 hours.

[euro6208]

Very Compact Typhoon Rapidly Intensifying.....

[aspen]

Eye temps are officially positive! Get ready for ADT to skyrocket over the next few hours.

If this doesn’t undergo an EWRC, I could see Dmax helping Goni get a full CMG ring tomorrow. The CDO is a little thin due to diurnal warming.

[ElectricStorm]

ADT is having issues locating the center... T numbers are way low because of it...

[Hayabusa]

2020OCT29 230000 5.8 950.6 109.8 5.8 5.9 6.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.43 -70.36 EYE 11 IR 70.5 16.30 -132.78 ARCHER HIM-8 21.2
2020OCT29 233000 5.8 950.6 109.8 5.8 5.9 6.2 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.84 -69.24 EYE 12 IR 70.5 16.34 -132.73 ARCHER HIM-8 21.2