ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

If I didn't know any better I'd, say his eye/proto eye was riding the north coast of the DR

[quaqualita]

reporting from North Cost DR, we have very strong winds here, sorry, don't have a wind meter, but would estimate at least 50 knts or more, much stronger than passing Cat 5s Irma and Maria 2 years ago. Very heavy rain, water blowing through very good sliding doors, quite insane, here nobody expected this from a 'only' TS!

[abk_0710]

If the ridge is not as strong as forecasted, what would be the furthest west this could go?

Ridge Stronger = More West
Ridge Weaker = More East/North

Gotcha! I was confused. So if the ridge is stronger, what is the furthest west it could go?

[chaser1]

Does a faster storm mean more west since it will beat the trough?

At a minimum, it would imply near term "status quo" as far as track direction. So, for now that would seem to imply continued WNW for the time being. Reduction in forward speed could suggest deepening, but most likely a potential gradual turn more to the NW might be about to commence

[Hurricaneman]

If the ridge is not as strong as forecasted, what would be the furthest west this could go?

Ridge Stronger = More West
Ridge Weaker = More East/North

Gotcha! I was confused. So if the ridge is stronger, what is the furthest west it could go?

I’d think key west to Tampa if stronger, a weaker ridge would keep it in the bahamas

[jlauderdal]

Center is definitely north of Hispaniola now--low cloud motion confirms this as most of the flow is out of the WNW or W.

for the new people here..this storm showed you that systems avoid land as we saw the center never really go over land and took advantage of the passage and we have also seen hispanola not disrupt the storm as much as it could...there is always talk about the high mountain of hispanol and eastern Cuba but you cant take assume there will be major effect...other times you can see major hurricanes get knocked down to a TS if they are slow movers..next up is what will happen once it gets into the Bahamas, they can intensify more than expected or not do much

[chaser1]

reporting from North Cost DR, we have very strong winds here, sorry, don't have a wind meter, but would estimate at least 50 knts or more, much stronger than passing Cat 5s Irma and Maria 2 years ago. Very heavy rain, water blowing through very good sliding doors, quite insane, here nobody expected this from a 'only' TS!

Wow?! Thanks for the report. Stay safe!! Sounds to me like further confirmation of the LLC having reformed to the N. Coast there

[cp79]

Ridge Stronger = More West
Ridge Weaker = More East/North

Gotcha! I was confused. So if the ridge is stronger, what is the furthest west it could go?

I’d think key west to Tampa if stronger, a weaker ridge would keep it in the bahamas

I think Tampa is looking safe but don’t want to say for sure yet. Just trending that way. It’s trucking, though, and when storms move this fast you never know.

[Rincoin]

Reporting from West Coast PR (Rincon) Lots of flooding on West Side of island -- Some of those bands set up shop and really hammered us on this side. -- Much more wind yesterday afternoon and evening but a Very large flooding impact here overnight and into this morning-- Measured 6.5 inches of rain here at house since midnight alonehttps://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IRINCN6 A lot of water and flooding reported. Stay safe everyone.

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/dhtqlo1.gif
LLC feature riding the N coast @19.5N/70W... Looks like Isaias is moving faster, supposed to pass 71.4 at 8pm, might be sooner?

Timing is EVERYTHING HERE. A faster storm may bring it closer to the coast because it will beat the trough that is supposed to weaken the ridge. The next 12 hours are CRITICAL in determining the future track and intensity of Isaias.

Ugh, thanks for putting out there exactly what was echoing in my head as I sit and watch this thing race westward lol

[chaser1]

Reporting from West Coast PR (Rincon) Lots of flooding on West Side of island -- Some of those bands set up shop and really hammered us on this side. -- Much more wind yesterday afternoon and evening but a Very large flooding impact here overnight and into this morning-- Measured 6.5 inches of rain here at house since midnight alonehttps://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IRINCN6 A lot of water and flooding reported. Stay safe everyone.

That's a lot of rain! Stay safe!

[alan1961]

If you animate a close up of the storm you can see the centre emerge of the coast of DR
and skirt along the north where i have marked.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200730/isasias.jpg

all in the mid levels..

east winds are shooting out the west side if the convection all day.. cant have a closed surface circ with east winds blowing through it.

Mid levels?..my head can't reach in that far to see..haha ..i get ya Aric..cheers

[Blown Away]

INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 68.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

Above is from 11am prediction, the pace Isaias is moving he will pass 71.4W well before 0000z. He might pass 19.7 to the N to.

[Camerooski]

Pressure may be substantially lower than the NHC has it.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 52416?s=20

[Hurricaneman]

Pressure may be substantially lower than the NHC has it.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 52416?s=20

Damn, looks like it could be close to hurricane strength based on that, but would go 70mph once sampled

[OuterBanker]

How interesting. The last few loops it appears that the mountains collapsed a feeder band. Yet, at the end of the collapse there is an area of deep convection.

[sma10]

Pressure may be substantially lower than the NHC has it.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 52416?s=20

Well, so much for the shredder doing it's job this time

[Camerooski]

I think this is going to be more of a Carolina threat than a FL east coast threat, but I would really love to have the recon upper air sampling data in the models ASAP. Let's say they find a stronger ridge -- impacts begin in S FL on Sat/Sun... not much time to prepare.

[jlauderdal]

I think this is going to be more of a Carolina threat than a FL east coast threat, but I would really love to have the recon upper air sampling data in the models ASAP. Let's say they find a stronger ridge -- impacts begin in S FL on Sat/Sun... not much time to prepare.

landfall on anglins pier, watch

[sma10]

I think this is going to be more of a Carolina threat than a FL east coast threat, but I would really love to have the recon upper air sampling data in the models ASAP. Let's say they find a stronger ridge -- impacts begin in S FL on Sat/Sun... not much time to prepare.

This besides the fact that the average error 72hrs out is 100 miles which is ~ 1.5 degrees of longitide in either direction