ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS is much deeper compared to any of its runs through hour 30:

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 24-48:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS.

Strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane by 60 hours.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 60:

[PTPatrick]

GFS Ever so slightly sw of its 12z run at 60 in this area Of the gulf...and still a hair sw by 78...perhaps a landfall slightly further west in La for 18z? Doubt much with change though

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 48-72:

[Kingarabian]

GFS hour 78+ trend:

[Kazmit]

Cat 3 a little further west.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 72-96:

[gqhebert]

goes in sw la a bit stronger than last run

[stormlover2013]

The track before it gets to gulf is going to be the key

[CrazyC83]

That seems to support the stronger -> farther west theory. Another possible scenario is that it could "parallel" the Louisiana coast. Are there any good examples of such historically?

[gqhebert]

The track before it gets to gulf is going to be the key

I agree a track south of Cuba would mean a farther west landfall most likely

[gqhebert]

That seems to support the stronger -> farther west theory. Another possible scenario is that it could "parallel" the Louisiana coast. Are there any good examples of such historically?

of note on this run, Marco actually stopped short of the se la coast and in a weakened state headed west along the coast towards Texas....as perhaps a weak depression

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Marco could very well outrun progression of high leading to back to back landfalls in SE to Southern La.

[Nederlander]

Oh boy, here we go again. The stronger euro ensembles showed a similar solution. I was thinking the threat to setx was waning. Another night of model watching, but its starting to look like a lot depends on the strength once in the GoM based on this GFS, Euro ensembles, and ICON

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don’t worry about the exact track, focus on the strength of the ridge over NC. Notice it builds in pretty strong as Laura enters the se gulf. That causes more wnw motion. Im willing to bet the windshield wiper effect by the models is not done. Bet tonight’s runs or tomorrow mornings shift back west and then slightly correct back East towards south central/SE LA when all is said and done. Laura could make landfall around Timbalier Island/Cocodrie then move wnw just inland towards lake Charles and then head north. Would be worst case scenario for LA. That is if that high is just a little stronger like gfs shows.

[tarheelprogrammer]

HWRF finally bent the knee, and it now goes over Cuba quite a bit. Almost into the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see if it still bombs out in the GOM. GFS sure thinks so now. ECMWF does not.

[cheezyWXguy]

HWRF finally bent the knee, and it now goes over Cuba quite a bit. Almost into the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see if it still bombs out in the GOM. GFS sure thinks so now. ECMWF does not.

Interesting. Seems to think a southern center will take over and plow into Hispaniola, while killing off the northern one as it rises the northern coast

[Nederlander]

HWRF finally bent the knee, and it now goes over Cuba quite a bit. Almost into the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see if it still bombs out in the GOM. GFS sure thinks so now. ECMWF does not.

Euro and GFS have both been garbage on intensity in recent history. HWRF has been much better, but can sometimes over amplify.