ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Not sure that will mean more shifts to the east on the NHC forecast. To miss Florida entirely, it will have start moving northwest soon. That is not happening yet.

Until a LLC is defined and Isaias clears Hispaniola there will be a lot of uncertainty. If the WNW motion continues, they may have to nudge the track back west.

Amateur opinion, not to be trusted!

[tropicwatch]

HH scheduled to take off soon. Wouldn't mind seeing them fly along the northern coast of Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

Is he pumping the ridge to the N according to CIMISS from the three hours prior looks quite a bit stronger?opinions?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

definitely something we have to watch for as well.

[Hurricane Mike]

5pm Video Update on Isaias
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZonWZq1mq5M

[boca]

Is he pumping the ridge to the N according to CIMISS from the three hours prior looks quite a bit stronger?opinions?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

definitely something we have to watch for as well.

It looks like the ridge building west ever so slightly.

[ObsessedMiami]

lets put it this way.......for everyone.. the source of this is from an Anonymous person I know lol.. FYI..



"Hi, I'm Irma! Here's my forecast track when I was north of the DR!"


https://i.ibb.co/mcqhrNv/116681882-800965283972862-7590666102826528848-n.jpg

Yeah, I have Irma flashbacks when I hear about feeling the edge of the ridge. I’ll breathe better when it passes my latitude, thank you.

[aspen]

HH scheduled to take off soon. Wouldn't mind seeing them fly along the northern coast of Hispaniola.

I still don’t see anything on Tropical Tidbits. Maybe the site is running behind, or the flight is running behind.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is he pumping the ridge to the N according to CIMISS from the three hours prior looks quite a bit stronger?opinions?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

definitely something we have to watch for as well.

The notion of an unexpectedly stronger Isaias “pumping the ridge” over the next 36 hours has been on my mind this afternoon, but Isaias would need to ramp up quickly for that to be the case.

I can’t imagine it would make a significant difference before the shortwave to kick in, but all it could take is an extra dozen (or two) miles West to make a difference for the Florida East Coast...

[NDG]

Why are no NOAA planes sampling the atmosphere to the north of Isaias? What's up with that?

Edit: Especially when international commercial flight traffic is way down.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convective structure is looking pretty good right now, considering it just went over the most mountainous island in the entire basin...

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288950714321055746

[CFLHurricane]

Not sure that will mean more shifts to the east on the NHC forecast. To miss Florida entirely, it will have start moving northwest soon. That is not happening yet.

Until a LLC is defined and Isaias clears Hispaniola there will be a lot of uncertainty. If the WNW motion continues, they may have to nudge the track back west.

Amateur opinion, not to be trusted!

I agree with your westward assessment. The models seem to underplay friction with land masses like they did with Irma. I fully expect the western side of the cone to get the brunt of the storm.

[xironman]

CDO building nicely, probably will diminish a bit once the inflow is cut off by the mountains.

[jaxfladude]

If this is a possible appetizer I hate to think the main course....

[Vdogg]

CDO building nicely, probably will diminish a bit once the inflow is cut off by the mountains.

Shouldn't they already be cutting it off? It seems it's building over the area that should be disrupting it.

[psyclone]

Looks like the 5 pm advisory is the 5th in a row that has shifted eastward as the system nears Florida. The trend has continued unabated. If it is true that a stronger system in this case will gravitate poleward...the current state of organization might continue the trend. As always this is subject to change but it is the story of the last day and it is a good one for the sunshine state..

[xironman]

CDO building nicely, probably will diminish a bit once the inflow is cut off by the mountains.

Shouldn't they already be cutting it off? It seems it's building over the area that should be disrupting it.

The east coast of Hispaniola is way less mountainous than the central to west.

[hipshot]

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of
Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

Discussion highlights:

"There is currently a significant
concentration of convection near the mid-level center that is
located along the northern coast of the island, and recent
surface observations suggest that a new center may be forming
near the area of mid-level rotation seen in satellite imagery. The
advisory position has been placed between the previous estimated
center location and the mid-level center until it becomes more clear
that reformation has occurred."

"The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance has shifted eastward and now
that Isaias is expected to become a stronger and deeper cyclone,
that also favors a more eastward track. The updated official
forecast is a blend of the various consensus aids. Since the new
center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in
the track may occur."

"It still needs to be stressed that that there is a higher
than usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast."

No mention of possible future Hurricane Watches for Florida, although Storm Surge Watches are possible down the line.

75MPH Hurricane forecast from 36hrs-96hrs.

'Additional shifts' likely mean more shifts to the east, and they used to mention that there is a higher than usual uncertainty in TRACK and intensity. But they have dropped track in that statement. They apparently now have become pretty confident in track, or at least they have the normal amount of confidence in track. I feel pretty sure that the only adjustments in track from now on will be gradual but continual nudges to the east. Intensity is always a struggle for any storm but as they said even more so for this storm. But that looks like it will mainly be an issue for the Bahamas, in my opinion.

Deciphering these outlooks is like peeps trying decipher the Fed during one of their announcements....hanging on every word and listening to differences
in wording. Kind of funny in a way.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If this is a possible appetizer I hate to think the main course....

i sadly think it is.

basically a rough draft for the "real" season that starts in 3 weeks.

[supercane4867]

Future of a Covidcane?

 https://twitter.com/AndyMarlette/status/1288832202088886272

[otowntiger]

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of
Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

Discussion highlights:

"There is currently a significant
concentration of convection near the mid-level center that is
located along the northern coast of the island, and recent
surface observations suggest that a new center may be forming
near the area of mid-level rotation seen in satellite imagery. The
advisory position has been placed between the previous estimated
center location and the mid-level center until it becomes more clear
that reformation has occurred."

"The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance has shifted eastward and now
that Isaias is expected to become a stronger and deeper cyclone,
that also favors a more eastward track. The updated official
forecast is a blend of the various consensus aids. Since the new
center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in
the track may occur."

"It still needs to be stressed that that there is a higher
than usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast."

No mention of possible future Hurricane Watches for Florida, although Storm Surge Watches are possible down the line.

75MPH Hurricane forecast from 36hrs-96hrs.

'Additional shifts' likely mean more shifts to the east, and they used to mention that there is a higher than usual uncertainty in TRACK and intensity. But they have dropped track in that statement. They apparently now have become pretty confident in track, or at least they have the normal amount of confidence in track. I feel pretty sure that the only adjustments in track from now on will be gradual but continual nudges to the east. Intensity is always a struggle for any storm but as they said even more so for this storm. But that looks like it will mainly be an issue for the Bahamas, in my opinion.

Deciphering these outlooks is like peeps trying decipher the Fed during one of their announcements....hanging on every word and listening to differences
in wording. Kind of funny in a way.

maybe funny but not meaningless. Wording is very important which is why they are always very careful in their wording.