ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kingarabian]

Won’t be a trend till it gets in gom

100% agree.

[Senobia]

HMON 130kt cane heading towards Galveston

You have a graphic for this model run?

[Ken711]

[SoupBone]

HMON 130kt cane heading towards Galveston

You have a graphic for this model run?

[Senobia]

So, what time does the NHC adjust their official tracks (if warranted), based on model data? I thought it was twice daily, but not sure.

[Ken711]

So, what time does the NHC adjust their official tracks (if warranted), based on model data? I thought it was twice daily, but not sure.

Every 6 hours. 5am, 11am, 5pm 11pm

[Nederlander]

So, what time does the NHC adjust their official tracks (if warranted), based on model data? I thought it was twice daily, but not sure.

Another update at 10 pm CST. 4 updates a day.

[Ken711]

[USTropics]

Since some of this has been posted on Twitter, here is a loop of the 18z ECMWF run:


A reminder that the ECMWF is really good at track:


Not so good with intensity:

[gatorcane]

I find it interesting how the Euro weakens Laura in the GoM. Quite the contrast from the GFS and hurricane models.

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

The 12Z Euro also showed 999MB at landfall so that is two runs in a row. The GFS and GEFS ensembles are nowhere near as strong as the hurricane models though the GFS ensembles are a little stronger than the 12Z. My point is not to downplay the situation but if I lived in the northern Gulf I would at least be cautiously optimistic there are good models showing a modest cyclone that are not bombing it out into a major:

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

The 12Z Euro also showed 999MB at landfall so that is two runs in a row. The GFS and GEFS ensembles are nowhere near as strong as the hurricane models though the GFS ensembles are a little stronger than the 12Z. My point is not to downplay the situation but if I lived in the northern Gulf I would at least be cautiously optimistic there are good models showing a modest cyclone that are not bombing it out into a major:

https://i.postimg.cc/qqYcHpFc/13-L-gefs-18z.png

yes. the same models who completely poofed TD13 for days in a row.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

The 12Z Euro also showed 999MB at landfall so that is two runs in a row. The GFS and GEFS ensembles are nowhere near as strong as the hurricane models though the GFS ensembles are a little stronger than the 12Z. My point is not to downplay the situation but if I lived in the northern Gulf I would at least be cautiously optimistic there are good models showing a modest cyclone that are not bombing it out into a major:

https://i.postimg.cc/qqYcHpFc/13-L-gefs-18z.png

The forward speed of both is definitely a friend of everyone along the Gulf Coast.

[CrazyC83]

18z GFS hours 93-99:
https://i.imgur.com/rQ4EmLv.gif

933??? SERIOUSLY?!?!?!

Isn't that a bit TOO aggressive?!?!?!

It's the GOM and its high OHC so it's unfortunately believable.

Michael went from 1002 to 919 in 72 hours. It's very reasonable.

[CrazyC83]

That said, I remember Hermine of 2016 where the HMON and HWRF were constantly bombing into a major, while the global models didn't show much. It ended up as a cat 1.

[AutoPenalti]

That said, I remember Hermine of 2016 where the HMON and HWRF were constantly bombing into a major, while the global models didn't show much. It ended up as a cat 1.

Was this before their resolution upgrade?

[CrazyC83]

That said, I remember Hermine of 2016 where the HMON and HWRF were constantly bombing into a major, while the global models didn't show much. It ended up as a cat 1.

Was this before their resolution upgrade?

I can't remember if it was.

[toad strangler]

Is there any shear its forecasting from a source the other models are not picking up on? The rest show near ideal conditions, and with the euro depicting Laura at 995mb upon gulf entry, it doesn't seem like it forecasts much core disruption.

t even deepens it down to 981mb. 15kts of shear it looks like. But there is an anti-cyclone near. So that shear shouldn't bother it that much especially since its a well intact upon emerging into the GOM.

The 12Z Euro also showed 999MB at landfall so that is two runs in a row. The GFS and GEFS ensembles are nowhere near as strong as the hurricane models though the GFS ensembles are a little stronger than the 12Z. My point is not to downplay the situation but if I lived in the northern Gulf I would at least be cautiously optimistic there are good models showing a modest cyclone that are not bombing it out into a major:

https://i.postimg.cc/qqYcHpFc/13-L-gefs-18z.png

Have you submitted a list to the forum of your good models vs bad models? I'm interested.

[MississippiWx]

Structurally, the storm is likely going to take a little time to reorganize once back in the Gulf. Obviously, any extra time that Laura is able to avoid the islands will be very beneficial to strengthening down the road.

If you're wondering why the models go crazy with intensifying Laura once in the Gulf, all you need to do is check the upper level conditions. It's literally the perfect scenario with dual outflow channels. One upper low backing away to the west and one to the southeast in the Caribbean.

[eastcoastFL]

Not many intensity models left in the TS camp

[Hammy]

NAM is trending quite a bit stronger, showing at or close to Cat 2 by the end of the run and almost 30mb lower than the earlier runs.