ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

lets put it this way.......for everyone.. the source of this is from an Anonymous person I know lol.. FYI..



"Hi, I'm Irma! Here's my forecast track when I was north of the DR!"


https://i.ibb.co/mcqhrNv/116681882-800965283972862-7590666102826528848-n.jpg

This is sorta why I'm mystified by some of the comments that say "ok, the 72 hr position is locked in stone, Isaias will turn 1 degree east of Florida. Check, please"

Don't we know by now that the odds of landing a 72hr forecast position on a dime is pretty remote?

[StPeteMike]

CDO building nicely, probably will diminish a bit once the inflow is cut off by the mountains.

I don’t see much diminishing happening with this storm. A smaller storm, I would say yes. But it’s large enough to avoid having fuel be cut off going to the center on the convection.

[AutoPenalti]

lets put it this way.......for everyone.. the source of this is from an Anonymous person I know lol.. FYI..



"Hi, I'm Irma! Here's my forecast track when I was north of the DR!"


https://i.ibb.co/mcqhrNv/116681882-800965283972862-7590666102826528848-n.jpg

I almost feel like posting this as a reminder every time I see a “Florida is saved again!” post until it actually IS past Florida.

[ScottNAtlanta]

When that last hot tower went off the easterly flow off the coast turned west. You can see it in the last couple of frames of the visible. It's like it got sucked in.

[toad strangler]

When that last hot tower went off the easterly flow off the coast turned west. You can see it in the last couple of frames of the visible. It's like it got sucked in.

So did we have the center cross DR

[Beef Stew]

If this is a possible appetizer I hate to think the main course....

It's just the typical annual Florida scare... from an 'I' storm... in July......

We may be filling up on the breadsticks...

[supercane4867]

Impressive blow up of terrain induced convection.

[CrazyC83]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

[Vdogg]

CDO building nicely, probably will diminish a bit once the inflow is cut off by the mountains.

I don’t see much diminishing happening with this storm. A smaller storm, I would say yes. But it’s large enough to avoid having fuel be cut off going to the center on the convection.

It's almost covering the whole island as we speak, that is why I questioned earlier. If it's going to be diminishing, it should be happening now.

[Evil Jeremy]

Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

Given they have been shifting the cone East with each advisory for the past day, and one one think Hurricane winds would be concentrated to the system's NE quadrant, I think no Hurricane Watch is the right call (right now).

That said, N Bahamas should have one right now.

[AutoPenalti]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

Personally, a TS Watch seems ideal considering how low confidence the forecast is, Levi even pointed it out that tracks change even within 3 days depending on whether this goes East or West.

[Vdogg]

I'll be surprised if this isn't a hurricane by 11 pm. It's obviously strengthening rapidly now. Can't wait for recon.

[eastcoastFL]

What is happening here??

[gatorcane]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

The way things are trending, SE Florida may have a nice breeze but not much else from this as the SW shear will push the convection to the NE side. So I don't see a need for any hurricane watches at this time for SE Florida. Actually may help cool things down here

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1288946332196110337

[St0rmTh0r]

I'll be surprised if this isn't a hurricane by 11 pm. It's obviously strengthening rapidly now. Can't wait for recon.

It may be strengthening but not rapidly, it doesn't have a developed core yet.

[Vdogg]

What is happening here??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_09L_202007302155_lat19.0-lon290.1.jpg

I'm guessing the core must be fully or substantially over water now and it's restrengthening.

[SFLcane]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

[caneman]

I've been at this game a long time. 95% of these storms from this approach do turn and with so much model consensus, I have little doubt in a turn.

[psyclone]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

The way things are trending, SE Florida may have a nice breeze but not much else from this as the SW shear will push the convection to the NE side. So I don't see a need for any hurricane watches at this time for SE Florida. Actually may help cool things down here

Hard to justify a hurricane watch when the current wind prob graphic shows 5%. that's a 1 out of 20 shot...although the 10% odds are very close. still...only a 1 in 10 shot on the latest package. I don't know what the threshold is but it seems like it should be well above that to be watch worthy..