ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

[northjaxpro]

The overshooting tops are consolidating nicely with lightning beginning to fire.

Intense lightning is always indicative of a strengthening cyclone!

[GCANE]

Pretty sure they'll tag it off West Palm Beach

[NDG]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

Will they post tropical watches north of NC from an extra tropical system? I just don't see it being a subtropical system past NC with such cold coastal waters north to New England.

[GCANE]

Starting to entrain 2500 CAPE air.

[NDG]

Based on radar and vis satellite this morning this is where I see the COC located, with a pressure around 1008 mb, definitely looks better than yesterday.I also see a mid level vorticity to the ne of it where the X is. We should see this two come together as the day goes by.

[HurricaneIrma]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

Thank I will get any tropical storm warnings here in Richmond Virginia

[HurricaneIrma]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

Thank I will get any tropical storm warnings here in Richmond Virginia

[GCANE]

Very nice symmetry.
Being under the shortwave did wonders for dropping shear to zero.

[HurricaneIrma]

Sorry for the duplicate posts of the same thing I was trying to correct the problem

[Nancy Smar]

ABNT20 KNHC 161211
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of
Florida.

An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast
coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty
winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida
eastward across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic
waters. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
low is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Continued gradual
development is expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight
while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of
Florida. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is
expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic
near or east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next
few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along
much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See
products from your local weather office for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the disturbance. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier
if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[GCANE]

Recon beginning decent.

[GCANE]

Judging by the cloud tops, looks like a sustained rotation has set in.

[HurricaneIrma]

Can someone please create a Recon discussion board please

[Ivanhater]

Strong inflow can be seen on visible now

[GCANE]

Cirrus layering now. Spinning up fast.

[GCANE]

Strong inflow can be seen on visible now

Quick development of a feeder band for sure.
If I didn't know better, looks like its sucking moist air from over Lake O

[Hurricanehink]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

Thank I will get any tropical storm warnings here in Richmond Virginia

Richmond is pretty far inland, you should be fine, but as always w the tropics, keep an eye out.

[NDG]

Outside of the gulf stream, coastal waters from NC on north are still very cold even for a subtropical system, if this system was to threaten the NE US like the 06z GFS shows.

[northjaxpro]

NHC has to start looking into gettiing watches posted up the coast later today. NC to New England are going to see some potential very significant impacts ftom this system , especially Monday and Tuesday!

Will they post tropical watches north of NC from an extra tropical system? I just don't see it being a subtropical system past NC with such cold coastal waters north to New England.

In the beginning NDG, I think this will be a warm core cyclone, up to the point it gets east of NC coast. It will enounter cooler waterrs once it gets off the DELMARVA region. I think it will stay close or traverse over the Gulf Stream the next coiple of days.