ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm4u]

Either way looks like alot of rain up here

[GCANE]

850mb vort swinging out to sea.
Towers circled in red maybe our Huckleberry this afternoon as diurnal pressure begins to drop.
Close-in feeder band from GoM continues to build.
Once convection fires up, anti-cyclone could easily move over this.

https://i.imgur.com/OWaSCAl.png

Yep that is the one I have been mentioning this morning. The renmants of the main circ from the last couple days

That tower continues to fire in the same spot.
Feeder band across FL looking better all the time.

[CyclonicFury]

There is NO recon mission today. Not surprised, considering the morning TWO did not mention recon at all.

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1280876949188104193

[wxman57]

I'm thinking depression possible by tomorrow afternoon and TS on Friday as it passes offshore MD/DE. Too disorganized today. Recon may not even fly.

[Aric Dunn]

850mb vort swinging out to sea.
Towers circled in red maybe our Huckleberry this afternoon as diurnal pressure begins to drop.
Close-in feeder band from GoM continues to build.
Once convection fires up, anti-cyclone could easily move over this.

https://i.imgur.com/OWaSCAl.png

Yep that is the one I have been mentioning this morning. The renmants of the main circ from the last couple days

That tower continues to fire in the same spot.
Feeder band across FL looking better all the time.

https://i.imgur.com/rF6XfYX.gif

yeah, once they become a little closer things will get interesting.

[GCANE]

ULL maybe forming over Bermuda.
If so, would create a poleward outflow channel and enhance development.

[GCANE]

Air over FL is destabilizing quickly.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1280884580065710081

[MGC]

Don't see any evidence the center is reforming offshore in the convection. I'm thinking the weak circulation sitting on the coast is the center to watch. It will take a day or two for it to get going if it does....MGC

[aspen]

The 12z GFS has a better organized system riding right up the coast, hitting NYC by late Friday/early Saturday.

[hohnywx]

The 12z GFS has a better organized system riding right up the coast, hitting NYC by late Friday/early Saturday.

Can someone post a graphic in the models thread?

[cycloneye]

The recon mission for this afternoon has been canceled. There is a mission tentative for Thursday with takeoff at 10 AM EDT.

THE TEAL 71 MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 20-042 FOR THE
08/2000Z REQUIREMENT WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 08/1330Z.

THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE TEAL 72 MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD
20-042 HAS SLIPPED 5.5 HOURS TO 09/1700Z AND WILL NOW BE A
LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR 35.5N 75.5W WITH MISSION ID
AFXXX 01BBA INVEST AND TAKEOFF TIME OF 09/1400Z.

[Steve]

The 12z GFS has a better organized system riding right up the coast, hitting NYC by late Friday/early Saturday.

Can someone post a graphic in the models thread?

Do they have you blocked at work or need a link? If so, I can put one on imgur or post that. GFS hasn't been particularly good with this I don't think. ICON (German) might end up being the global that did the best with this (at least as far as the ones I have access to). It depends on whether it runs inland, along the coast or slightly offshore. ICON rounds the Outer Banks and brushes up against New Jersey before hitting Long Island at about 1000mb on Saturday at 5:00am EDT.

[hohnywx]

The 12z GFS has a better organized system riding right up the coast, hitting NYC by late Friday/early Saturday.

Can someone post a graphic in the models thread?

Do they have you blocked at work or need a link? If so, I can put one on imgur or post that. GFS hasn't been particularly good with this I don't think. ICON (German) might end up being the global that did the best with this (at least as far as the ones I have access to). It depends on whether it runs inland, along the coast or slightly offshore. ICON rounds the Outer Banks and brushes up against New Jersey before hitting Long Island at about 1000mb on Saturday at 5:00am EDT.

Yes, I don't have anything saved on my work computer. A link would be great.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern
South Carolina continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and
portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move
northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along
the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally
heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions
of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern
New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible
along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday and along the
mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday.
Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Steve]

I like Levi's site best, but there are some out there with substantially better resolutions. Most of those are pay wall sites.

Levi's site:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Penn State Tropical e-wall
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html

FSU Tropical Site
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Hurricanehink]

Due to the threat for land for tomorrow, shouldn’t the NHC initiate advisories on a potential tropical cyclone?

[Aric Dunn]

Still watching the old 925-850mb vorticity left over from the main circ the last couple days it is offshore... if convection builds with it here shortly it should take off.

oddly enough the lowest pressure I cant Find is right under it..

[GCANE]

850mb vort is just about on top of the CoC per IR.