ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

I've heard some people say that if 97l is able to form a center in the West Caribbean it would have an anticyclone over it that would ventilate it and abate wind shear, I haven't heard many people talk about this here does anyone have any input?

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[bob rulz]

I wouldn't trust the models for cyclogenesis this year as far as I could throw them.

[Aric Dunn]

Slowly tightening up. if we see that good convective pop tonight. expect development a little earlier.

[Aric Dunn]

Ill just leave this right here... looking better....

[Aric Dunn]

last one for the night.

development likely sooner than expected. especially if convection continues to increase overnight.

LLC is becoming more defined. just need a good burst of convection.

[Aric Dunn]

and here you go.. there is the LLC closed and convection firing in association with it now. ( yellow dot)

need to be watched more closely.

[3090]

and here you go.. there is the LLC closed and convection firing in association with it now. ( yellow dot)

need to be watched more closely.

https://i.ibb.co/qgyvZNn/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/WxhGDS2/2.gif

Aric...you do a masterful job with your presentations. Most on this board, outside of the weather professionals, are guessers. Myself included!!! But you somehow find a way to concisely present (to the point), say what you have to say, without a lot of gibberish. Thank you!

Both systems have been moving along, as the NHC has forecasted. No surprises. While people watch the ever changing model runs and get conflicted, the NHC very seldom changes their prediction on general direction and when a system is going to intensify, or not intensify. They have been saying 97L, IF it develops into a tropical depression, it would be toward the end of this week in the NW Caribbean. The only thing the NHC has updated thus far, is the probability of 97L becoming a tropical depression. Nothing else has changed!

[GCANE]

Just like this time yesterday, a high-helicity tower fires off.
If this diurnal pattern persists, I expect tomorrow around this time should likely start spin up as it begins to tap into high TPW air from the EPAC thru Panama.
It looks like the EPAC has recovered from Genevieve and the TPW tank is nearly full.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is tracking along nicely with the LL vort and pretty much on top if it.

[GCANE]

Massive TUTT in place for ventilation at 25N 53W
BTW looks like a shredder for 98L.

[GCANE]

IR Satellite Analysis shows the wave beginning to close off

[GCANE]

Radar seems to indicate that the circulation is tightening up.
Vast majority of the Globals are now indicating a cane in the GoM with likely landfall in TX and some chance in LA.
Forecast as this gets into the W Carib is for the troposphere to be saturated from sea surface to tropopause.

[3090]

Radar seems to indicate that the circulation is tightening up.
Vast majority of the Globals are now indicating a cane in the GoM with likely landfall in TX and some chance in LA.
Forecast as this gets into the W Carib is for the troposphere to be saturated.

https://i.imgur.com/oIDPfCh.png

Stronger = more east, Weaker = more west.

[Aric Dunn]

IR Satellite Analysis shows the wave beginning to close off

https://i.imgur.com/VAAdPEE.png

Its got the right stuff this morning... circ begin to develop last night. moderate convective burst this morning.. if that maintains for a decent amount of time it will tighten up the llc and we will have a TD>

[tailgater]

Looks more organized this morning on first visible satellite images. I’m thinking it will be classified tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms, along with gusty winds in
these thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is
possible over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to
20 mph across the central Caribbean Sea. After that time, the wave
is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the
system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[stormlover2013]

Radar seems to indicate that the circulation is tightening up.
Vast majority of the Globals are now indicating a cane in the GoM with likely landfall in TX and some chance in LA.
Forecast as this gets into the W Carib is for the troposphere to be saturated.

https://i.imgur.com/oIDPfCh.png

Stronger = more east, Weaker = more west.

Not always the case

[3090]

Radar seems to indicate that the circulation is tightening up.
Vast majority of the Globals are now indicating a cane in the GoM with likely landfall in TX and some chance in LA.
Forecast as this gets into the W Carib is for the troposphere to be saturated.

https://i.imgur.com/oIDPfCh.png

Stronger = more east, Weaker = more west.

Not always the case

In general...not always.

[Aric Dunn]

I just want to the sun to rise enough to light up the west side under the canopy.. So I can see the developing llc better.

[cycloneye]

97L INVEST 200819 1200 13.8N 71.8W ATL 30 1008