ATL: MARCO - Models

[NDG]

:uarrow: Interesting that the GFS is favoring TD #14 over TD #13 now and is indicating a hurricane potential for the northern Gulf Coast .

The GFS has been inconsistent with TD13's strength and it does not make sense that it shows TD 13 weaker than TD 14 with the best UL conditions over TD 13 and southerly shear over TD 14.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: Interesting that the GFS is favoring TD #14 over TD #13 now and is indicating a hurricane potential for the northern Gulf Coast .

The GFS has been inconsistent with TD13's strength and it does not make sense that it shows TD 13 weaker than TD 14 with the best UL conditions over TD 13 and southerly shear over TD 14.

Not just strength, but landfall too. It's now showing a western Louisiana landfall.

[NDG]

Here’s an interesting thought: wouldn’t a stronger TD Fourteen in the GoM “pump up” the ridge to its east-northeast, bringing TD Thirteen farther W as well?

No, that would actually weaken some the ridging to the NW of TD 14 and would keep TD 14 from going much west in the GOM. Good example was with Irma and Jose in 2017.

[Steve]

CMC 72 hours

[Steve]

CMC at 120 hours. Takes 14 on a dive south and brings in 13 over the top much stronger than a lot of other models based on movement and position.

[BobHarlem]

Interesting model setup with 13/14 and the Epac system all basically tugging on each other.

[stormlover2013]

CMC is horrible

[Steve]

CMC @ 132 hours

[Steve]

CMC is horrible

Sometimes it is. And I don't trust the track or ICON's either. But answer this - which two models showed these systems from last week? ICON/CMC or GFS/ECMWF? There you go. They exceeded for genesis and the actuality of the storms. You have to take what you can get and apply that to the knowledge you already have IMHO.

[stormlover2013]

CMC is horrible

Sometimes it is. And I don't trust the track or ICON's either. But answer this - which two models showed these systems from last week? ICON/CMC or GFS/ECMWF? There you go. They exceeded for genesis and the actuality of the storms. You have to take what you can get and apply that to the knowledge you already have IMHO.

I will stick with the NHC forecast, they usually aren't fall off with forecast, also this year GFS and euro haven't done well in long range but haven't been bad 3-5 days

[cp79]

CMC is horrible

It nailed Isaias until It got close to Fla.

[SoupBone]

The CMC buries it in Mexico.

[hohnywx]

Here’s an interesting thought: wouldn’t a stronger TD Fourteen in the GoM “pump up” the ridge to its east-northeast, bringing TD Thirteen farther W as well?

No, that would actually weaken some the ridging to the NW of TD 14 and would keep TD 14 from going much west in the GOM. Good example was with Irma and Jose in 2017.

Yup, this was posted in the discussion thread:

How strong TD 14 gets and how far north it goes will be important for the eventual track of TD 13 should it go into the Gulf, since a stronger, farther north TD 14 will erode the western edge of the ridge sooner, and cause TD 13 to turn to the north faster.

[SoupBone]

06Z GFS-Para

[3090]

CMC is horrible

Sometimes it is. And I don't trust the track or ICON's either. But answer this - which two models showed these systems from last week? ICON/CMC or GFS/ECMWF? There you go. They exceeded for genesis and the actuality of the storms. You have to take what you can get and apply that to the knowledge you already have IMHO.

These two are now systems. And with that said, the EURO and GFS, both, are far superior to any of the models you mention. Are there times when one could disagree? Certainly; but the vast majority of the time, the EURO and GFS are heavily leaned on by the pros at the NHC. I would say they have the most knowledge, over anyone of us forum posters. I mean...

[stormlover2013]

GFS didn't develop hanna till 2 days before landfall, TVCN and Euro is what the 95 percent lean on with upper level pattern.

[Steve]

CMC is horrible

Sometimes it is. And I don't trust the track or ICON's either. But answer this - which two models showed these systems from last week? ICON/CMC or GFS/ECMWF? There you go. They exceeded for genesis and the actuality of the storms. You have to take what you can get and apply that to the knowledge you already have IMHO.

These two are now systems. And with that said, the EURO and GFS, both, are far superior to any of the models you mention. Are there times when one could disagree? Certainly; but the vast majority of the time, the EURO and GFS are heavily leaned on by the pros at the NHC. I would say they have the most knowledge, over anyone of us forum posters. I mean...

Nobody probably disagrees with that. But you do realize it's the models thread?

[catskillfire51]

back to TD 14.... HMON at least initialized pretty decent

[WxEp]

UKMET heads up toward the North Gulf Coast in the general direction of Louisiana. Barely moving at all near the end of the run. Keeps it weak.

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.5N 86.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 19.5N 86.7W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 20.5N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 22.2N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 23.8N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 26.1N 90.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 27.7N 91.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 28.0N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 28.1N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 28.2N 92.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Steve]

HWRF 63 hours just off the NE tip of Yucatan @ 1002
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2012&fh=63

HMON 81 hours at 25.84N 88.3W @ 991
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2012&fh=81