ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ian2401]

is it PTC or straight TD?

[Weatherboy1]

And there we have it. Yet another depression!

[us89]

We have Tropical Depression 19!

Absolutely came out of nowhere. Another major forecast fail from the computer models.

NHC hasn't declared it a TD yet. Last time they used this wording was for the PTC that became Nana.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We have Tropical Depression 19!

Absolutely came out of nowhere. Another major forecast fail from the computer models.

NHC hasn't declared it a TD yet. Last time they used this wording was for the PTC that became Nana.

Yeah, the thought crossed my mind that may be the case after I made that post.

Poor wording from the NHC. Why not just say "we're initiating advisories on PTC 19"?

[us89]

We have Tropical Depression 19!

Absolutely came out of nowhere. Another major forecast fail from the computer models.

NHC hasn't declared it a TD yet. Last time they used this wording was for the PTC that became Nana.

Yeah, the thought crossed my mind that may be the case after I made that post.

Poor wording from the NHC. Why not just say "we're initiating advisories on PTC 19"?

My bet is because it still gives them a chance to call it a TD in case it organizes further in the next 30 minutes.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC hasn't declared it a TD yet. Last time they used this wording was for the PTC that became Nana.

Yeah, the thought crossed my mind that may be the case after I made that post.

Poor wording from the NHC. Why not just say "we're initiating advisories on PTC 19"?

My bet is because it still gives them a chance to call it a TD in case it organizes further in the next 30 minutes.

yeppers.. They are watching radar and all other data, closely and see that itis quickly organizing.

[cheezyWXguy]

I can pretty clearly see surface inflow from the west on vis. Regardless of whether it’s a PTC or TD at this advisory I think this one is going to steal the name Sally from 95L by morning

[ClarCari]

Yeah, the thought crossed my mind that may be the case after I made that post.

Poor wording from the NHC. Why not just say "we're initiating advisories on PTC 19"?

My bet is because it still gives them a chance to call it a TD in case it organizes further in the next 30 minutes.

yeppers.. They are watching radar and all other data, closely and see that itis quickly organizing.

Yuppp they don’t wanna do what happenned with Nana and have PTC for only .2 seconds

[tailgater]

That wreaking PV streamer more than shear affecting the NW quadrant IMHO. The keys need to watch this one closely

[AnnularCane]

Before we accuse this young TD or PTC of theft, let us remember that 95L never technically had ownership of the name Sally.

[Jr0d]

There are 2 ships in the vicinity reporting 29.9kts @130° and 160° sustained winds. Disappointed I have to go to work soon and won't be able to watch it form live on radar.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ship_obs.php

[cheezyWXguy]

Before we accuse this young TD or PTC of theft, let us remember that 95L never technically had ownership of the name Sally.

Haha to be fair though, 95L has been modeled for about a week now, and this one popped up, like, today. Not much more than a barely closed low on the models up to this point

[Jr0d]

That wreaking PV streamer more than shear affecting the NW quadrant IMHO. The keys need to watch this one closely

I am in Key West, very nice day today with light winds. Pressure is dropping though. I will keep the board updated with my weather observations throughout the weekend.

[Cat5James]

Heading to Ft Lauderdale beach.. hopefully catch some waves and a few thunderstorms rolling in

[Nuno]

MIA's pressure down to 1009mb, that's a 6 mb drop from 24 hrs ago, a low closed low pressure east of them is getting deeper this afternoon.

METAR for: KMIA (Miami Intl, FL, US)
Text: KMIA 111953Z 05010G17KT 10SM SCT034 BKN049 BKN085 BKN250 32/23 A2981 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W SLP095 CB DSNT SW MOV SW T03170233
Temperature: 31.7°C ( 89°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C ( 74°F) [RH = 61%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.81 inches Hg (1009.6 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1009.5 mb]
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 knots; 5.1 m/s) gusting to 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.7 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more sm (16+ km)
Ceiling: 4900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 3400 feet AGL, broken clouds at 4900 feet AGL, broken clouds at 8500 feet AGL, broken clouds at 25000 feet AGL

Can confirm. I'm getting 1010/1009 mb here in coastal Dade.

[gatorcane]

Big pressure drop at Fowey Rocks off Miami, winds increasing:

[Evil Jeremy]

Not surprised by advisory. Would be surprised if it’s a TD instead of PTC. Can’t recall the NHC announcing advisories will be issued with half an hour notice without saying what the system would be classified as. Must be an internal debate...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC hasn't declared it a TD yet. Last time they used this wording was for the PTC that became Nana.

Yeah, the thought crossed my mind that may be the case after I made that post.

Poor wording from the NHC. Why not just say "we're initiating advisories on PTC 19"?

My bet is because it still gives them a chance to call it a TD in case it organizes further in the next 30 minutes.

Makes sense. It is wrapping up quickly.

[Dean4Storms]

Has all the looks as a TD already.

[WeatherEmperor]

NHC website just listed TD19


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