WPAC: GONI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Impressive.

HWRF seems to predict the onset of ERC by 00Z tomorrow.

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Impressive.

HWRF seems to predict the onset of ERC by 00Z tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/hD6nTUg.jpg

Oh wow, that is a thick, compact eyewall. No EWRC coming anytime soon. If the HWRF is right and Goni won’t have an EWRC for another 24 hours, the ceiling for it will be very, very high — possibly sub-900.

[aspen]

I feel confident calling this a 135-140 kt super typhoon. A 15-20C eye surrounded by a CMG CDO could potentially support 150-155 kt, but the uneven CDO shows it’s not quite there yet.

[LarryWx]

Hopefully this avoids the very battered central Vietnam! Any opinions?

[Hayabusa]

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 30 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°20' (16.3°)
E132°40' (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

[doomhaMwx]

Also, models have shifted more south closer to Manila again during the last 12hrs.

[Hayabusa]

Hopefully this avoids the very battered central Vietnam! Any opinions?

It would rapidly weaken as it makes landfall over the Philippines then it would encounter increasing shear and dry air once over the SCS but still hard to say at what likely intensity as it approaches Vietnam (JTWC keeps it as a minimal typhoon in latest warning)

[euro6208]

This is a nightmare for dvorak. Compact size and a 5 nm eye...

Dang.

At least 140 to 155 knots.

[NotoSans]

SAR pass at 2057Z reveals 118kt max winds.

[aspen]

SAR pass at 2057Z reveals 118kt max winds.

Wow, the JTWC’s estimate was spot-on. I’d say 130 kt for this upcoming update will be a safe estimate.

[Yellow Evan]

DT=T7.0 without conastraints.

[Hayabusa]

22W GONI 201030 0000 16.3N 132.7E WPAC 125 939

[aspen]

22W GONI 201030 0000 16.3N 132.7E WPAC 125 939

Playing it way too safe. 130 kt would be the absolute minimum for me.

[ElectricStorm]

22W GONI 201030 0000 16.3N 132.7E WPAC 125 939

Aaand here we go. Haishen all over again... They're on the ball during the RI and refuse to upgrade... Classic

[ElectricStorm]

TY 2019 (Goni)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 30 October 2020

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N16°20' (16.3°)
E132°40' (132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 75 km (40 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

965mb!? How? How in the world do they get 965 from a system like this lol

[aspen]

125 kt? More like 135 kt. If the JTWC and JMA continue to horribly underestimate systems, especially those that are threatening land, then they need some massive changes to be at the same standards as the NHC.

[dexterlabio]

This reminds me a lot of STY Nalgae in 2011. It was also a very compact storm, plus its track also had that pronounced SW dip due to uber strong STR in East Asia. No wonder 2011 and 2020 are both La Nina years.

[ElectricStorm]

125 kt? More like 135 kt. If the JTWC and JMA continue to horribly underestimate systems, especially those that are threatening land, then they need some massive changes to be at the same standards as the NHC.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmsrvis/2020wp22_1kmsrvis_202010300040.gif

Yeah idk what's going on but they have been AWFUL the last couple years. Especially the JTWC. So many storms they have dropped the ball on and it just keeps happening over and over again... Just to upgrade them all post season. Makes no sense to me. They are the pros but come on...

[aspen]

125 kt? More like 135 kt. If the JTWC and JMA continue to horribly underestimate systems, especially those that are threatening land, then they need some massive changes to be at the same standards as the NHC.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmsrvis/2020wp22_1kmsrvis_202010300040.gif

Yeah idk what's going on but they have been AWFUL the last couple years. Especially the JTWC. So many storms they have dropped the ball on and it just keeps happening over and over again... Just to upgrade them all post season. Makes no sense to me. They are the pros but come on...

Imagine this gets a +20 kt upgrade in post-season analysis. Of course, that depends on how strong it gets in the next 24 hours and what the JTWC ultimately decides to call it.