ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

This puppy is really coming together on morning visible loop.

[us89]

https://i.imgur.com/LqKnmGJ.gif

If you look hard enough at that loop, you can see some of those towers rotating around what might be a circulation center near the western side of the big top blob.

It’s too bad ASCAT can’t aim to save its life right now. Realistically I don’t see how this isn’t a TD after producing a huge blob of -80-90C cloud tops like it did all night. I almost wonder if we have another Nana-type situation where there’s already a relatively strong core going but it’s so small we can’t find it under all that convection.

[wxman57]

The requirements for a PTC advisory are that there is a high chance of development (check) AND that the potential storm is within 48 hrs of impacting a coastal region that the NHC warns for (nope). Looks like it will reach the coast of Nicaragua Tuesday evening. Therefore, about the earliest we could expect a PTC advisory would be tomorrow late afternoon. However, if you're curious what the NHC track would look like, it would look just like the consensus model (TVCN):

[tiger_deF]

I think we might already have Eta. Lower level clouds are moving into the circulation from directions, and formative banding is visible in all quadrants. One of the better looking Invests this season for sure

[kevin]

Is there a recon mission planned today? I'm pretty sure they'll find TD or even TS winds later this afternoon if the invest keeps developing.

[aspen]

If this is another Nana-like situation, where 96L is already a compact TS, then its genesis time could be pushed to be much earlier in post-season analysis.

[GeneratorPower]

I wonder if grazing Central America would cause this smaller storm to expand in size?

[Ryxn]

Concensus track reminding me of Felix of 2007...

[SouthDadeFish]

I would wager recon would find 96L is a TC right now. Looks to be quickly coming together on satellite this morning. Very impressive looking disturbance. Conditions appear quite favorable for intensification. If a well-defined circulation develops over the next 24 h, I think a major hurricane in the west Caribbean looks very possible.

[northjaxpro]

I would wager recon would find 96L is a TC right now. Looks to be quickly coming together on satellite this morning. Very impressive looking disturbance. Conditions appear quite favorable for intensification. If a well-defined circulation develops over the next 24 h, I think a major hurricane in the west Caribbean looks very possible.

No doubt about this!

[cycloneye]

Is there a recon mission planned today? I'm pretty sure they'll find TD or even TS winds later this afternoon if the invest keeps developing.

The first mission will depart on Sunday afternoon. Follow the 96L Recon thread.

[Hurricaneman]

Is there a recon mission planned today? I'm pretty sure they'll find TD or even TS winds later this afternoon if the invest keeps developing.

The first mission will depart on Sunday afternoon. Follow the 96L Recon thread.

By then it may be a mid grade tropical storm

[Kazmit]

This should be upgraded at 11.

[NDG]

Too bad ASCAT missed it again.

[aspen]

Too bad ASCAT missed it again.

https://i.imgur.com/pK0w6H3.jpg

Oh my god, ASCAT’s aim has been nothing short of a horrendous embarrassment. Stormtroopers have better aim than this!

[cycloneye]

This should be upgraded at 11.

Not upgraded at 11 but I guess they are waiting for a good ASCAT pass as the most recent one missed.

[AnnularCane]

This should be upgraded at 11.

Not upgraded at 11 but I guess they are waiting for a good ASCAT pass as the most recent one missed.

This may never get upgraded if they're waiting for that.

[AutoPenalti]

Still disorganized at the moment with low level west winds aloft. I don’t see anything that indicates this should be designated right now. It does seem to be developing fast, which most likely means NHC might issue a PTC or a TC by 5 or 11 tonight.

[cycloneye]

JB says TD.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1322552320815759360

[Laminar]

Who is driving the darned ASCAT?