ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I am very nervous about this here on the South Shore of Long Island. My entire town is only about 3 feet above sea level in the back Bay area, so things could get very scary if the core comes over us during high tide. On top of that, the full moon is on the 3rd, so tides will be near their highest possible levels all along the coast when the storm passes by.

Are you out east in Nassau County? I think that beyond the Carolina coastline, eastern Long Island stands to be at greatest risk of the center making landfall or at least close by. Luckily that's a few days off but once this storms clears the Bahamas and Florida coastline, much attention will become more focused on the storms future path.

Yes I am in Nassau County, Island Park to be exact. Suffolk County may get the brunt of this out east, but even sustained ts winds during high tide would be more than enough to cause a lot of issues here.

I live not far away from you in Brooklyn and have friends in Long Beach. Just stick with us here and we will help you get through this and keep your stress down. Just listen to the promets here and especially the NHC and you'll be able to make the right decisions.

[cp79]

Last few frames it looks like it’s starting to slow down and turn more NW.

[hipshot]

Are you out east in Nassau County? I think that beyond the Carolina coastline, eastern Long Island stands to be at greatest risk of the center making landfall or at least close by. Luckily that's a few days off but once this storms clears the Bahamas and Florida coastline, much attention will become more focused on the storms future path.

Yes I am in Nassau County, Island Park to be exact. Suffolk County may get the brunt of this out east, but even sustained ts winds during high tide would be more than enough to cause a lot of issues here.

I live not far away from you in Brooklyn and have friends in Long Beach. Just stick with us here and we will help you get through this and keep your stress down. Just listen to the promets here and especially the NHC and you'll be able to make the right decisions.

I have 2 kids and their families in Brooklyn. My son is pretty near LaGuardia and my daughter in Bay Ridge and she is pretty near the coast. What can they
expect?

[Blown Away]

If you zoom in and look on the W side of that convection ball just N of Haiti. It appears to be the W side of the LLC partially exposed? If yes looks more WNW than NW?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[jfk08c]

Yes I am in Nassau County, Island Park to be exact. Suffolk County may get the brunt of this out east, but even sustained ts winds during high tide would be more than enough to cause a lot of issues here.

I live not far away from you in Brooklyn and have friends in Long Beach. Just stick with us here and we will help you get through this and keep your stress down. Just listen to the promets here and especially the NHC and you'll be able to make the right decisions.

I have 2 kids and their families in Brooklyn. My son is pretty near LaGuardia and my daughter in Bay Ridge and she is pretty near the coast. What can they
expect?

Unfortunately, nobody can answer that question

[ozonepete]

Yes I am in Nassau County, Island Park to be exact. Suffolk County may get the brunt of this out east, but even sustained ts winds during high tide would be more than enough to cause a lot of issues here.

I live not far away from you in Brooklyn and have friends in Long Beach. Just stick with us here and we will help you get through this and keep your stress down. Just listen to the promets here and especially the NHC and you'll be able to make the right decisions.

I have 2 kids and their families in Brooklyn. My son is pretty near LaGuardia and my daughter in Bay Ridge and she is pretty near the coast. What can they
expect?

It's just too early now. We will have a much better idea by tomorrow evening.

[Aric Dunn]

Dont start wobble watching just yet lol. the convection is recovering from being over land.. cant wrap around because half of the system is still over land.

[Hurricaneman]

I honestly have this currently near the eastern most Turks & Caicos, right under that small area of deep convection

[GCANE]

I dunno.
I think the vort off the north shore is falling apart from shear its running into and infeed being pinched off by the mountains.
Should have seen convection fire along the north shore of Haiti by now.

[NDG]

Lets see where the recon finds the LLC, I think it is west of the MLC.

[abk_0710]

Is the North Central gulf coast able to signal an all clear on Isaias? Or should we continue to watch? Thanks in advance!

[Sciencerocks]

[SouthFLTropics]

The southerly inflow has seriously been hampered by the large mountains. Isaias has basically been cut off from the power source in the Eastern Caribbean that it had been tapping into. I think the LLC is still there on the North Shore and is heading off to the WNW. Once it gets closer to the Windward Passage it should be able to tap back into some flow from the South. It will need to do that before it gets cut off again from the mountains in Eastern Cuba.

[Hurricaneman]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7906/f4I5ev.gif

Seems to be close to the SE Bahamas but also looks to have taken in some dry air

[DestinHurricane]

The southerly inflow has seriously been hampered by the large mountains. Isaias has basically been cut off from the power source in the Eastern Caribbean that it had been tapping into. I think the LLC is still there on the North Shore and is heading off to the WNW. Once it gets closer to the Windward Passage it should be able to tap back into some flow from the South. It will need to do that before it gets cut off again from the mountains in Eastern Cuba.

The longer it stays weak, the more west it will go.

[SouthFLTropics]

If I had to guess a center location just based on overnight visible I would put it around 72W and 20.5N.

[psyclone]

Our system is at the correct meridian for max orographic misery as evidenced by south shore convection due to lift...followed by downslope and correspondingly skimpy convection north of there.

[Hurricaneman]

If I had to guess a center location just based on overnight visible I would put it around 72W and 20.5N.

I have it at 21N 72w but it looks like the inflow has taken a hit due to Hispaniola but overnight I believe this will have a good CDO, it seems to have an okay CDO now but expect it to blow up overnight as it moves away from the mountains

It also looks like it’s heading 300

[Blown Away]

If I had to guess a center location just based on overnight visible I would put it around 72W and 20.5N.

Yeah, the W half of the circulation is exposed and you can see it moving more W than NW. Look between the NW corner of Haiti and Inagua Island. I just don’t see that feature moving NW.

[aspen]

11pm update has no changes to current intensity and has a very similar track, except with a Cat1 landfall in NC. The NHC still calls for this to gradually intensify into a hurricane over the next 24-36 hours.