ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Translated -
Drivers transiting the Carr 100 at the height of km 0.7 (Rio Guanajibo Bridge) in the direction of Cabo Rojo to Mayaguez, right lane COMPLETELY OBSTRUCTED by fallen trees.
https://twitter.com/angeljsomar/status/1289037446479589378

I drove right by that earlier this afternoon. I was very surprised with the amount of trees down from the storm in the Mayaguez area. I believe it was from mudslides as opposed to wind but I can't confirm because there were a lot of branches (some large) which were obviously wind damage.

Meanwhile at my house most of the day was a bit breezy but not much more than typical and not a lot of rain. We did get a lot more rain after I go home, but Mayaguez had 6-8 inches, and Isabela area only received ~3.

I’m so glad you didn’t get it bad where you live. Some of the flooding looks devastating.

[TheStormExpert]

Tides will be running higher as there’s a full moon on Monday.

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1289042159749005312

How wonderful

This year must be cursed!

[sma10]

This season is already unreal...appropriate that 2020 looks likely to bring us a historic hurricane season in addition to everything else going on.

It's a bit early, but I think there's a decent chance that we won't have to pronounce Isaias again in 2026. I hope they replace it with a better name...

This is actually quite hilarious because it would be the third consecutive 'I' retirement on List 6 (Isidore -> Ike -> Isaias).

The reason the 'I' storm gets retired a lot is because it always ends up during peak season. Yet this time the 'I' storm may be on the cutting block and it formed in July. The 'I' curse is definitely real... I think 50% of all 'I' storms have been retired during the 21st century.

Also funny that 'I' has the fewest names as well... it would be a lot easier to find replacements if 'H' or 'J' were the 9th letter of the alphabet instead.

A bit of a tangent, but I've said for a long time that all the names should just go on a rolling basis, so the next season just picks up where the last left off, so that we don't have so many letters that are never used and other letters that are oversaturated.

This is a very good point, and likely one day, inevitable. After all, by the year 3000, surely we'll have run out of names?

[ScottNAtlanta]

This wind field is HUGE!
There are TS force winds all the way in the Bahamas

[AutoPenalti]

So now that we have an actual center (only took 10,000ft high mountains) it will be a lot easier to track. Now we have to keep an eye on the trough and the ridge. So far the trough seems tilted enough that it will create a narrow avenue to avoid Florida, but I’ve noticed that any more tilted and it creates a amplified ridge...

[artist]

None of the models showed a hurricane at this point, correct? It is also a tad sw of where the nhc points had forecast it to be.

[KC7NEC]

Give me a break, ok? This thing was a pain to track and watch all week then it suddenly decides to blowup while crossing Shreddonia!

2020 is in effect.

Serious though for discussion. With a stronger storm it's less likely to take the turn as early right?

Other way around, stronger storm more likely to feel the trough and be tugged out to sea.

Thanks. i thought it was that a stronger storm would be less affected by the trough. So a stronger storm could be a good thing in this case.

[StruThiO]

Give me a break, ok? This thing was a pain to track and watch all week then it suddenly decides to blowup while crossing Shreddonia!

I'll give you that it took its sweet time, but this is yet another example of why we never, ever write anything off in the tropics

[TheStormExpert]

Well if there’s any good news it’s that it’s looking increasingly likely that metropolitan SE Florida dodged yet another hurricane. Of course there’s still four months including August/September/October to go so I have doubts that the luck will last much longer for metropolitan SE Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Give me a break, ok? This thing was a pain to track and watch all week then it suddenly decides to blowup while crossing Shreddonia!

I'll give you that it took its sweet time, but this is yet another example of why we never, ever write anything off in the tropics

True, I always seem to eat my words. It must be some sort of reverse psychology.

[artist]

This wind field is HUGE!
There are TS force winds all the way in the Bahamas

I was noticing that. Some of the higher winds are to the nw of it the center. Not good if it stays that way.

[ConvergenceZone]

I can't wait to see what the 11:00 PST update is in terms of predicted wind speed and track. I usually go to bed at 10:30 PST, but I think I'll stay up for this one..

[artist]

Well if there’s any good news it’s that it’s looking increasingly likely that metropolitan SE Florida dodged yet another hurricane. Of course there’s still four months including August/September/October to go so I have doubts that the luck will last much longer for metropolitan SE Florida.

Don’t speak too soon... Some of the higher winds are to the nw of the center.

[TheStormExpert]

Two hurricanes, both poorly forecasted. God I hope the global models get it together fast as we don’t need anymore surprises this year!!

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1289029439930556416

[TheStormExpert]

Well if there’s any good news it’s that it’s looking increasingly likely that metropolitan SE Florida dodged yet another hurricane. Of course there’s still four months including August/September/October to go so I have doubts that the luck will last much longer for metropolitan SE Florida.

Don’t speak too soon... Some of the higher winds are to the nw of the center.

I’m not writing it off completely just yet, definitely never let your guard down until it’s north of your latitude.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think I said a couple of weeks ago on the 2020 indicators thread that if we were to see multiple AEW-based systems in July, including more than one hurricane, it would be time to panic — somewhat as a joke because I wasn’t sure we’d get to that many.

July 31st: five named storms, three AEW-based systems, and two AEW-based hurricanes in this month. Yep, ASO is gonna be nasty.

If august/september/october stay active, which given what we've currently seen, I think we might be using the greek alphabet at the end of the season lol I think the problem with many of the storms that formed this year is they either ran out of water and hit land too early or they couldn't take advantage of their environments due to it being so early in the season still. Isaias might be a good indicator for what we're yet to see I would think especially since Hanna would have kept exploding if it didn't run out of water...

[hurricaneCW]

Give me a break, ok? This thing was a pain to track and watch all week then it suddenly decides to blowup while crossing Shreddonia!

2020 is in effect.

Serious though for discussion. With a stronger storm it's less likely to take the turn as early right?

Generally stronger storms go more poleward and the further north they get the more likely they'll be tugged east but not always.

The strength, location, and trough tilt is crucial as well as the extent of the WAR. Models show the Midwest trough deepening and WAR strengthening as this curves north.

The result will likely be a storm that rockets up the coast in a squeeze play fashion. I'm thinking a faster, slightly further east version of Irene.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I really wonder if the reduction of commercial aircraft feeding data to the models has affected their performance.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

RFLOL Fifteen years ago today I started my weather blog (July 30th, 2005) devoted to the Martimes, Maine, and in a broader sense all of New England, talk about a terrible anniversary gift if the models pan out -

https://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

[supercane4867]

We have a CDO now.