ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I have to be one of the few people to be thinking back to another 'I' storm 9 years ago...even though it's earlier in the season...

[SouthFloridawx]

I really wonder if the reduction of commercial aircraft feeding data to the models has affected their performance.

That's a great point

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[IsabelaWeather]

Translated -
Drivers transiting the Carr 100 at the height of km 0.7 (Rio Guanajibo Bridge) in the direction of Cabo Rojo to Mayaguez, right lane COMPLETELY OBSTRUCTED by fallen trees.
https://twitter.com/angeljsomar/status/1289037446479589378

I drove right by that earlier this afternoon. I was very surprised with the amount of trees down from the storm in the Mayaguez area. I believe it was from mudslides as opposed to wind but I can't confirm because there were a lot of branches (some large) which were obviously wind damage.

Meanwhile at my house most of the day was a bit breezy but not much more than typical and not a lot of rain. We did get a lot more rain after I go home, but Mayaguez had 6-8 inches, and Isabela area only received ~3.

I’m so glad you didn’t get it bad where you live. Some of the flooding looks devastating.

Yeah me too, honestly the Mayaguez area was really bad. I got there 3 or 4 hours after the heavy rain ended and there was still massive floooding on-going.

Many houses were being cleaned out, driving south on PR-2 I could look out into the higher terrain and see countless mudslides, some were over PR-2 (but not fully).

There was a ton of beach erosion as well.

Considering how the storm looked last night, and the complete lack of rain nearly anywhere on the west side when I went to sleep at 3am, I was surprised to wake up with the entire west side from Yauco NW to Aguada with 6-10 inches of rain

The east side got hit really badly too, but I did not drive all the way out there to look. Pictures from Juncos was pretty insane.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have to be one of the few people to be thinking back to another 'I' storm 9 years ago...even though it's earlier in the season...

I think they should strike I storms from future name lists. The letter seems cursed this is but the latest possible example.

[sponger]

Look at that blow up! Is the Euro even worth staying up for? The 2am tomorrow should have a much better fix on the turn. Of course I am not going to bed until I see the under data fed Euro tonight.

[ozonepete]

All of this stronger storm goes east or north or takes a turn is not very helpful. There are so many other factors involved and thus so many scenarios. Here's a few:
The strength of the TC
The size of the TC
The strength of the trough.
The size of the trough.
The orientation of the trough.
The strength of high pressure to the east and north of the TC.

For example, if Isaias gets even stronger tonight it may turn a little more northwest sooner since the trough to it's northwest is not that strong, but since the Bermuda high north and east of it is so strong it will not be able to get an eastward component to its track. That means it is going to turn north or northeast all of a sudden and go out to sea. And that's a very simple assessment.

So any statement that tries to assess the future direction of the TC based on its strength requires addressing most if not all of those factors. The best thing to do is read the NHC discussion where they will explain the track reasoning in pretty easy to understand language.

[CrazyC83]

All of this stronger storm goes east or north or takes a turn is not very helpful. There are so many other factors involved and thus so many scenarios. Here's a few:
The strength of the TC
The size of the TC
The strength of the trough.
The size of the trough.
The orientation of the trough.
The strength of high pressure to the east and north of the TC.

For example, if Isaias gets even stronger tonight it may turn a little more northwest sooner since the trough to it's northwest is not that strong, but since the Bermuda high north and east of it is so strong it will not be able to get an eastward component to its track. That means it is going to turn north or northeast all of a sudden and go out to sea. And that's a very simple assessment.

So any statement that tries to assess the future direction of the TC based on its strength requires addressing most if not all of those factors. The best thing to do is read the NHC discussion where they will explain the track reasoning in pretty easy to understand language.

This is where the G-IV really gets its money worth, especially with commercial aircraft reduced greatly. I do think NWS needs to launch extra balloons as well.

[ozonepete]

All of this stronger storm goes east or north or takes a turn is not very helpful. There are so many other factors involved and thus so many scenarios. Here's a few:
The strength of the TC
The size of the TC
The strength of the trough.
The size of the trough.
The orientation of the trough.
The strength of high pressure to the east and north of the TC.

For example, if Isaias gets even stronger tonight it may turn a little more northwest sooner since the trough to it's northwest is not that strong, but since the Bermuda high north and east of it is so strong it will not be able to get an eastward component to its track. That means it is not going to turn north or northeast all of a sudden and go out to sea. And that's a very simple assessment.

So any statement that tries to assess the future direction of the TC based on its strength requires addressing most if not all of those factors. The best thing to do is read the NHC discussion where they will explain the track reasoning in pretty easy to understand language.

[aspen]

I have to be one of the few people to be thinking back to another 'I' storm 9 years ago...even though it's earlier in the season...

You’re not the only one. I was thinking this could be like Irene ‘11 when this was trying to form a few days ago, then later switched to thinking a Gulf scenario was more likely. Now it looks like an Irene-esque East Coast Sweep is most likely. If Isaias does get up to NY/NJ/CT, that’ll be two TCs impacting the region in less than a month, after 8 years since Sandy with exactly none (unless you count the remnants of Hermine and Jose off of the coast).

[StPeteMike]

It’s like Dorian all over again crossing our fingers that it does make that turn away.

[AutoPenalti]

All of this stronger storm goes east or north or takes a turn is not very helpful. There are so many other factors involved and thus so many scenarios. Here's a few:
The strength of the TC
The size of the TC
The strength of the trough.
The size of the trough.
The orientation of the trough.
The strength of high pressure to the east and north of the TC.

For example, if Isaias gets even stronger tonight it may turn a little more northwest sooner since the trough to it's northwest is not that strong, but since the Bermuda high north and east of it is so strong it will not be able to get an eastward component to its track. That means it is going to turn north or northeast all of a sudden and go out to sea. And that's a very simple assessment.

So any statement that tries to assess the future direction of the TC based on its strength requires addressing most if not all of those factors. The best thing to do is read the NHC discussion where they will explain the track reasoning in pretty easy to understand language.

If a hurricane becomes strong enough it can make its own ridging to the north via large-scale outflow subsidence, and go further west. It just depends if there's really a well-defined trough. If there is a well-defined trough, then a stronger storm is steered to the north by the upper level winds.

Basically, it can go either way. This time of year a stronger system may be favored to go further west due to a lack of strong mid-latitude troughs. But we will see. Model runs tomorrow morning will help clarify, and I think by tomorrow night we will have a good handle on the track, can’t forget wobble watching too!

[curtadams]

Here is a little bit of fun for everyone to cut the tension.

https://youtu.be/TjlWGFdUfro

Where does that pronunciation come from? I can't think of any English word that strings three open vowels together like that. And in Spanish, isn't "ia" pronounced "ya"? Is it Portuguese?

[emeraldislenc]

I wonder what is the reasoning that keeps the intensity at 80.

[Craters]

This is where the G-IV really gets its money worth, especially with commercial aircraft reduced greatly. I do think NWS needs to launch extra balloons as well.

Is the Global Hawk flying anymore? I looked at the NASA website earlier, and it doesn't seem to have been updated for quite a while...

[CrazyC83]

I have to be one of the few people to be thinking back to another 'I' storm 9 years ago...even though it's earlier in the season...

You’re not the only one. I was thinking this could be like Irene ‘11 when this was trying to form a few days ago, then later switched to thinking a Gulf scenario was more likely. Now it looks like an Irene-esque East Coast Sweep is most likely. If Isaias does get up to NY/NJ/CT, that’ll be two TCs impacting the region in less than a month, after 8 years since Sandy with exactly none (unless you count the remnants of Hermine and Jose off of the coast).

Unlike in 2011, I would be in no threat of such a storm, however I know many of you would be. It would also be a huge blow amidst the pandemic as well.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here is a little bit of fun for everyone to cut the tension.

https://youtu.be/TjlWGFdUfro

Where does that pronunciation come from? I can't think of any English word that strings three open vowels together like that. And in Spanish, isn't "ia" pronounced "ya"? Is it Portuguese?

It's Portuguese I believe.

[tiger_deF]

This is the first recon mission into Isaias that looks like an actual traditional recon pattern and not just motivated by total confusion

[Mob1]

That's an impressive windfield the recon is finding, consistent 40 knot winds almost 120 miles NW of the center.

[TheDreamTraveler]

RFLOL Fifteen years ago today I started my weather blog (July 30th, 2005) devoted to the Martimes, Maine, and in a broader sense all of New England, talk about a terrible anniversary gift if the models pan out -

https://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

Powerful storms eventually come up the coast and landfall. Not saying Isaias will be very powerful in the Northeast or Canada but people forget New England's been struck by category 3/4 storms 6 times...since the 1600s lol. But it does happen eventually. Last cat 3 into New England was the 1938 one I believe and the last actual hurricane was Bob in 1991. NE has been extremely lucky not having any landfalling hurricanes in the past 30 years considering there's been years in the past where NE got struck by 2 hurricanes within weeks of each other.

[StPeteMike]

Has the center moved to the southwest in the last 30 minutes or just my imagination? Seems like the land interaction and flare up managed to bring the LLC in that direction but I may be wrong.