ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Amazing how hurricane tracks seem to cluster in certain areas season to season... SW Louisiana has one of the lowest hurricane return periods in the basin... (2) in a couple weeks is amazing...

[Rail Dawg]

Was a weather-guesser back in the days of hand-plotting charts and having to manually track satellites to get a grainy shot lol.

The NHC nailed this. Let's compare back to the 1900 Hurricane and the warnings they got.

Chuck

[MBryant]

Of course, I'm not trying to downplay Delta as a nothingburger, but Ike this isn't. Hopefully the damage is minimal

Sure this storm isn't as strong as others we have seen recently. But this is a Cat 2 hitting the same areas that were just hit by a Cat 4 less than 2 months ago... Just because it's not a major or an Ike does not mean it's not going be destructive...

especially if you have a blue tarp on your roof

You mean blue kites?

[Boutwas]

New live feed link from Lake Arthur - lost the last stream

https://www.facebook.com/steve.boutwell ... 399032217/

[Blinhart]

So far at my house we have gotten 3 inches of rain, and gusts to probably 40, but steady 25 right now.

[LARanger]

especially if you have a blue tarp on your roof

You mean blue kites?

May one be carried high aloft into the anticyclonic flow and land in a few days as debris in your yard, shredding into little hard-to-pick-up pieces as it comes down.

Having thus been viciously cursed with the voodoo, you may return to your previous activities.

[Blown Away]

Northern eyewall about to come onshore....

[LARanger]

Winds are pretty calm maybe 40-50 MPH

Such a Louisiana-hurricane-season way to phrase that. Chicago folks are just nodding along, too.

On the east side of BR we're starting to get some relatatively stout gusts. Rain has been minimal since last night, which is of course when I had to drive through the lie of yellow (that was red- or purple-level rain in reality . . . I lost sight of the road at the end of my hood multiple times and forded a small new river at the end of 110.)

[gfsperpendicular]

Fantastic job on Intensity NHC on this one.

Edit: And Track - Again all around NHC Wins.

I mean I agree that the NHC is great but why use this storm as an example? The original advisory had it landfalling on Cuba and peaking in the Gulf right before landfall as a Category 2 in extreme SE LA.

A week ago? I mean, even that is pretty impressive accuracy compared to 10 years ago, much less 30 years ago. It wasn't that long ago storms like this would end up four states off and the response would be that beyond 72 hours it was really just a guess.

We're getting to a point that hurricanes don't make shocking, unforecast turns any more.*

*adding this asterisk to point out that I'm not a meteorologist and nobody should let their guard down

Okay, and like I said, the NHC isgreat. However, it wasn't a week, and it isn't 2010, and it definitely isn't 1990. By the modern day NHC's standards, this was a well-below average performance. Not that it was their fault, they simply followed the models. I doubt the NHC forecasters are celebrating a forecast that succumbed to intensity errors up to 5x the 2015-2019 average and tracks well outside the cones from 2-3 days before. To reiterate, the NHC has been fantastic this year, but this storm is not why.

[supercane4867]

Landfall intensity should be near or at 80kts based on recon

[LARanger]

Either in the Delta update, or the Traffic update on WGNO 99,5 New Orleans... The guy reporting said blown over by winds ?? I dont know if he was correct or not. Just shared what was said

Easier to blow one over that's curving, one would think . . . so maybe everybody's right.

[CrazyC83]

If nothing changes, I would set the landfall intensity at 80 kt. That would be based on Recon supporting 85 kt + continued weakening.

[mpic]

https://twitter.com/CharlesPeekWX/status/1314647973536690178?s=20

[sphelps8681]

We have been getting pretty hammered here in extreme East Tx and a local met is blaming it on the laziness of the storm for not making that east turn. This was on a live broadcast. Come on!!

[wxman57]

Southern side of Delta looking quite ragged on satellite & radar now. Definitely weakening. Cat 1 landfall.

[PandaCitrus]

This is probably going to be a nuisance storm to most people with minimal structural damage. The population centers are 30 miles inland so it's possible they will only see strong tropical storm winds inland and some hurricane gusts. The major concern is Lake Charles. It's a sea of blue tarps and damaged leaking roofs. 50 to 70mph winds and relentless rain for hours has got to be a major setback to the recovery.

[ElectricStorm]

This is probably going to be a nuisance storm to most people with minimal structural damage. The population centers are 30 miles inland so it's possible they will only see strong tropical storm winds inland and some hurricane gusts. The major concern is Lake Charles. It's a sea of blue tarps and damaged leaking roofs. 50 to 70mph winds and relentless rain for hours has got to be a major setback to the recovery.

Yeah the main issue with this storm is the fact that it's hitting the areas hit by Laura. If it wasn't for that, it would be mostly just a nuisance storm

[CrazyC83]

This is probably going to be a nuisance storm to most people with minimal structural damage. The population centers are 30 miles inland so it's possible they will only see strong tropical storm winds inland and some hurricane gusts. The major concern is Lake Charles. It's a sea of blue tarps and damaged leaking roofs. 50 to 70mph winds and relentless rain for hours has got to be a major setback to the recovery.

Yeah the main issue with this storm is the fact that it's hitting the areas hit by Laura. If it wasn't for that, it would be mostly just a nuisance storm

Yeah, although even a category 1 storm can do significant damage with tree damage and flooding. There will still be widespread tree damage and power outages.

[Steve]

Some decent gusts here in New Orleans. Sustained 20+ and we are maybe 180-200 miles east of landfall. There’s a dry band coming through so that makes sense.
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[CrazyC83]

The highest radar echoes I can find are about 95 kt at 8,000 feet. That lines up well with an intensity of 80 kt, especially since Recon showed that winds were not mixing as efficiently.