ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Way too much SAL out there. Maybe we’ll try again in a month.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1287634807086821376




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287712853756084225

[SouthDadeFish]

This invest looks far from impressive at this moment. Almost like a big cyclonic gyre out in the middle of the Atlantic surrounded by SAL to the north. If it wasn't for a weak Kelvin wave passing by right now, I would put the genesis chances much lower than the NHC has them right now. Anyway, I am leaning toward the Euro solution at this point in time. If 92L is to undergo genesis within the next two days, it desperately needs some sustained convection to create a local vorticity maximum. Too broad for now.

how about a centralized vort max ?

https://i.ibb.co/9TYfWDJ/LABELS-19700101-000000-3.gif

Missing the convection part, but it's a start.

[TheStormExpert]

SAL and mid-level dry air continues to dominate.

[Aric Dunn]

This invest looks far from impressive at this moment. Almost like a big cyclonic gyre out in the middle of the Atlantic surrounded by SAL to the north. If it wasn't for a weak Kelvin wave passing by right now, I would put the genesis chances much lower than the NHC has them right now. Anyway, I am leaning toward the Euro solution at this point in time. If 92L is to undergo genesis within the next two days, it desperately needs some sustained convection to create a local vorticity maximum. Too broad for now.

how about a centralized vort max ?

https://i.ibb.co/9TYfWDJ/LABELS-19700101-000000-3.gif

Missing the convection part, but it's a start.

Yeah, baby steps with this behemoth..

[NDG]

I was looking at the dust forecast last week and wondering how in the world was 92L going to develop in the middle of the MDR with so much dust being forecasted to come out of Africa with it so I was skeptical about development or at surviving for too long with so much dry dusty air surrounding it and that's what the Euro finally started seeing.
The energy is strong so it may have to be watched when it gets to the western basin if the not the Lesser Antilles.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just looking at the satellite, and ignoring models for the moment, I would guess development is likely eventually, but not until it gets into the Caribbean. The oval shape of the gyre will take a while to sort out and consolidate. There is presently a bit of shear in the Caribbean, but models do show that shear could relax a bit in a few days.

[SFLcane]

I was looking at the dust forecast last week and wondering how in the world was 92L going to develop in the middle of the MDR with so much dust being forecasted to come out of Africa with it so I was skeptical about development or at surviving for too long with so much dry dusty air surrounding it and that's what the Euro finally started seeing.
The energy is strong so it may have to be watched when it gets to the western basin if the not the Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/puLMCqV.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Au0fEzA.gif

After seeing those dust images kinda makes you wonder how this disturbance managed to get such high development probs. I bet they left it 80-90% this morning for continuity purposes. Way to broad for now as others have stated.

[TheStormExpert]

I was looking at the dust forecast last week and wondering how in the world was 92L going to develop in the middle of the MDR with so much dust being forecasted to come out of Africa with it so I was skeptical about development or at surviving for too long with so much dry dusty air surrounding it and that's what the Euro finally started seeing.
The energy is strong so it may have to be watched when it gets to the western basin if the not the Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/puLMCqV.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Au0fEzA.gif

It seems like SAL this year just doesn’t want to let up. I know people will say it’s late-July but a decline should be expected by now if not very soon.

[Aric Dunn]

I was looking at the dust forecast last week and wondering how in the world was 92L going to develop in the middle of the MDR with so much dust being forecasted to come out of Africa with it so I was skeptical about development or at surviving for too long with so much dry dusty air surrounding it and that's what the Euro finally started seeing.
The energy is strong so it may have to be watched when it gets to the western basin if the not the Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/puLMCqV.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Au0fEzA.gif

After seeing those dust images kinda makes you wonder how this disturbance managed to get such high development probs. I bet they left it 80-90% this morning for continuity purposes. Way to broad for now as others have stated.

It is because of its size. it is pulling moisture comparable to the size of the dust. The circ I pointed out in the loop earlier is in the middle of the huge moisture pouch.

there is a very large buffer zone for something to develop inside the moisture pouch.

[SFLcane]

We will see Mr. Ventrice...bust?

The convectively active phase of the Kelvin wave that spawned Hurricane #Douglas over the East Pacific is now passing the Atlantic basin. Watch for another Atlantic tropical cyclone to spawn over the Main Development Region today or tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 71424?s=21

[toad strangler]

I was looking at the dust forecast last week and wondering how in the world was 92L going to develop in the middle of the MDR with so much dust being forecasted to come out of Africa with it so I was skeptical about development or at surviving for too long with so much dry dusty air surrounding it and that's what the Euro finally started seeing.
The energy is strong so it may have to be watched when it gets to the western basin if the not the Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/puLMCqV.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Au0fEzA.gif

It seems like SAL this year just doesn’t want to let up. I know people will say it’s late-July but a decline should be expected by now if not very soon.

It's late July.

[AutoPenalti]

Wouldn’t SAL seem irrelevant with a moisture envelope of that size?

[toad strangler]

92L is MASSIVE. Probably too large for it's own good. Thus, I have no faith in any solution that brings this N of the islands. 00z Euro look is very plausible.

[NDG]

We will see Mr. Ventrice...

The convectively active phase of the Kelvin wave that spawned Hurricane #Douglas over the East Pacific is now passing the Atlantic basin. Watch for another Atlantic tropical cyclone to spawn over the Main Development Region today or tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1 ... 71424?s=21

There goes MJ Ventrice again with being aggressive for development with the Kelvin Waves, just like earlier in the month with so much dust there will not be any development in the middle of the MDR, IMHO.

[MGC]

80% at 48 hours is grossly optimistic IMO. 92L is large and devoid of organized convection. Expect development odds to decrease......MGC

[jlauderdal]

92L is MASSIVE. Probably too large for it's own good. Thus, I have no faith in any solution that brings this N of the islands. 00z Euro look is very plausible.

the hurricanes that should always be most concern to the united states are the ones that develop west of 60..just sayin

[northjaxpro]

80% at 48 hours is grossly optimistic IMO. 92L is large and devoid of organized convection. Expect development odds to decrease......MGC

For the next couple of days, they may lower probs.

Once the system nears the Caribbean,and if 92L tracks and develops south, it probably will find better conditions to develop.

[Vdogg]

I'm surprised at the number of people already trying to call time of death on this storm, especially considering the disorganized messes that have managed to consolidate already this year. I think this thing has a long way to go, and it's too early to say anything with certainty.

[NDG]

I was looking at the dust forecast last week and wondering how in the world was 92L going to develop in the middle of the MDR with so much dust being forecasted to come out of Africa with it so I was skeptical about development or at surviving for too long with so much dry dusty air surrounding it and that's what the Euro finally started seeing.
The energy is strong so it may have to be watched when it gets to the western basin if the not the Lesser Antilles.

https://i.imgur.com/puLMCqV.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Au0fEzA.gif

It seems like SAL this year just doesn’t want to let up. I know people will say it’s late-July but a decline should be expected by now if not very soon.

Is normal, back in 2017 late July through the third week of August the middle of the MDR was very dusty, the reason the Atlantic's MDR didn't really got going until late August.

[GCANE]

12N 44W looks pretty good.
That's where IR Sat puts the CoC.
Heavy convection with lightning.
Cold cloud tops.
WV outflow suggests it maybe a protected pouch.