ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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jfk08c
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#261 Postby jfk08c » Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:46 pm

Strength of the system early on and that high pressure dipping down are going to be the biggest factors. The longer it takes to gain strength, the further west it'll probably go. Then we will have to see if the high pressure will come down and affect steering.

Gonna be a good tracker for sure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#262 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:51 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Any thoughts on whether or not the 18z GFS will live up to its happy hour reputation and throw us a crazy solution? If the past is any indicator, 18z will be the “fun run” to watch.


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Many happy hr GFS runs to go. :wink:


Boy, is THAT a fact!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#263 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:53 pm

Will be interesting if any ensembles show something similar

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#264 Postby chaser1 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 5:54 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:I may be 100% wrong but doesn't climo favor stronger ridging and less chance of recurve this early in the season?


:clap: That is climatalogically correct sir.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#265 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:02 pm

I’m pretty sure I mentioned that the ridge orientation and setup would allow for an increased risk to the Carolinas and NE U.S. Of course this is 10 days out and things will change, but it’s interesting to note that 92L quickly makes a 90° turn to the NE shortly after landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#266 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:06 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:I’m pretty sure I mentioned that the ridge orientation and setup would allow for an increased risk to the Carolinas and NE U.S. Of course this is 10 days out and things will change, but it’s interesting to note that 92L quickly makes a 90° turn to the NE shortly after landfall.


It does about every compass heading on this run. Turns east after landfall, a little southeast, then turns northeast into Atlantic Canada.

If this run panned out it would be a heck of an ACE generator.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#267 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:14 pm

HAFS experimental model (Future HWRF replacement)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#268 Postby abajan » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:15 pm

SFLcane wrote:Long ways to go with this one. Irma looked like a shoe in to recurve only to head west. It has to develop first

Exactly. Also, does it seem to anyone else like the models are initializing the center too far north?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#269 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:17 pm

supercane4867 wrote:HAFS experimental model (Future HWRF replacement)

Image

Much faster solution...brings Easy E into South Florida by next Saturday. I called it Easy E because I can’t pronounce Isiais yet...


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#270 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:17 pm

These models do seem in agreement with one thing: This is almost certain to develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#271 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:18 pm

Hurricane Mike wrote:These models do seem in agreement with one thing: This is almost certain to develop.

Yeah it's gonna happen. Basically a 120% chance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#272 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:19 pm

I wonder if that cutoff low in the Mississippi Valley had any implications on its final landfall destination? That wasn’t there on the 12z run at least that I noticed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#273 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:22 pm



Woah! Link?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#274 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:22 pm

I only see one ensemble member that turns this out to sea. Most show a landfall in Florida or Carolinas/Mid Atlantic. Many show the ridge building in and a turn to the NW/WNW.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#275 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:38 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Will be interesting if any ensembles show something similar

https://i.imgur.com/ITDdMEZ.gif


Ummm correct me if I’m wrong, but this doesn’t make any sense. It has it plowing right into a ridge?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#276 Postby Nuno » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:39 pm



No matter where this ends up, it is going to be massive in size.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#277 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:50 pm

supercane4867 wrote:HAFS experimental model (Future HWRF replacement)

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d ... 4bcd5c.gif]


Do you have the area in the NE Caribbean to see how it looks there?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#278 Postby KAlexPR » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:HAFS experimental model (Future HWRF replacement)

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d ... 4bcd5c.gif]


Do you have the area in the NE Caribbean to see how it looks there?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#279 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:58 pm

KAlexPR wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:HAFS experimental model (Future HWRF replacement)

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5d ... 4bcd5c.gif]


Do you have the area in the NE Caribbean to see how it looks there?


https://imgur.com/l0doiyS


Thank you. Well, I am going there. :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#280 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:01 pm

Anyone care to share what the 12z UKMET showed?
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